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Faisal Islam Profile picture
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10 Jun, 4 tweets, 2 min read
On record yesterday, Biden’s adviser Jake Sullivan told @BBCJonSopel of the President’s “very deep concern” on this issue, but didn’t get in to much granular detail…Times reporting private comments from last week suggests more detailed engagement, in particular re US trade deal
This was US Trade Rep on record last month asked about whether she would extend trade negotiations already done with UK - volunteered the administration was “keeping eye” on NI situation in relation to US-UK trade
very interesting thing in Times story is suggestion of specific incentive the US communicated to UK Gov to align agricultural standards with EU in order to solve some of the Protocol problems (EU long suggested this) - and that this wouldn’t affect chances of US-UK trade deal…
This would be, if confirmed, a significant departure for the US - to drop demands for UK acceptance of US food/farm exports for beef/chicken etc, in order to help maintain stability in NI, and still pursue a trade deal… see Lighthizer from last year

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More from @faisalislam

Faisal Islam Profile picture
10 Jun
Interesting wide ranging 5 page joint statement between PM and President Biden - but notably no reference at all to a “comprehensive trade agreement” as there was in the previous ones with President Trump

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… Image
Here’s the equivalent paragraph from the statement with Trump in 2019... Image
Paragraph on Northern Ireland...and the Belfast/ Good Friday Agreement, PM & POTUS “reaffirm their commitment to protect its delicate balance” Image
Read 5 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
10 Jun
POTUS announces donation of half a billion Pfizer vaccines made in the USA to developing countries…
US gov will buy at cost - Pfizer CEO @AlbertBourla says none of the existing variants have escaped his vaccine, they are developing and hope to apply for approval this year for an oral treatment against COVID-19, and have a plan for 100 day development for new vaccine if needed.
Obviously as its supplied at cost, it’s effectively also a donation from the German inventors of the vaccine at Biontech: investors.biontech.de/news-releases/…
Read 6 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
10 Jun
NEW:

Based on a full year’s comparable data, the US overtook the UK as the worst hit G7 country in terms of pandemic excess deaths... when we first did this analysis with @HealthFdn for the first wave last June, UK was by some way worst. US now hardest hit alongside UK & Italy.
percentage measure above includes some allowance for the demographic trend in calculating the expected levels of death over past year... this below is a cruder measure using a 5 year average of G7 deaths, but is the same way we calculated it for first wave - US the big change..
Full Story:

These international comparisons throw up some v important questions...

For context best performers - Japan, canada, & Germany, have lower levels of per capita excess deaths over full year, than UK had in the first wave alone... @HealthFdn

bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
Read 7 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
8 Jun
Fascinating White House briefing on US economic strategy re supply chain resilience - significant changes to gov backed funding, trade retaliation “strike force” when other countries stitch up supply chains, etc batteries, semiconductors etc, rare earth:

whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
This is the US trade agenda right now, and why they are in no hurry to sign any trade deals right now - much more interested in altering the current structures of trade, in particular where it perceives China has strategically stitched up supply chains for future industries…
this is quite a sharp departure in economic approach - not at all concerned with spreading “free trade” as an end in and of itself, its a recognition that if China acts so strategically, so will the US...they’re even going to divert export trade credits to fund domestic factories
Read 4 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
7 Jun
More #Britcoin

Bank of England Governor Bailey launches discussion paper on difficult questions re “stablecoins” and CB digital money” - “prospect of stablecoins as a means of payment & emerging propositions of CBDC have generated a host of issues..” bankofengland.co.uk/paper/2021/new…
BoE: “opportunities can only be realised if new forms of digital money are safe. They could be privately provided – in form of ‘stablecoins’. Or they could be publicly provided – in the form of a central bank digital currency”..“precautionary arrangements may therefore be needed”
“new forms of digital money are assumed to be denominated in sterling. Unlike cryptoassets such as Bitcoin, which do not have an anchor, they are also assumed to be backed by assets that make them stable in value...”
Read 10 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
7 Jun
We knew Biden admin “going big” on fiscal support for its economy, but extraordinary to hear first hand from US Treas Sec Janet Yellen, that now, was time to “do more”, not even think about phasing out support, & this applied to rest G7, ie incl UK. Sets tone for #G7UK Cornwall Image
Given tax deal focus, this might have been missed at G7 -
judging timing & pace of the withdrawal of crisis support, against backdrop of record borrowing and rising inflation = THE fundamental economic judgement call.

US saying choice clear for all: /1

bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
2/ key analytical point Yellen pointed to: US being forecast to regain economic output lost in pandemic first in G7, thanks to vaccines & stimulus.

That, she said wasnt enough, all G7 econs:
- should aim at “returning to pre-pandemic growth paths” - & had fiscal space to do so
Read 6 tweets

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