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Faisal Islam Profile picture
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8 Jun, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Fascinating White House briefing on US economic strategy re supply chain resilience - significant changes to gov backed funding, trade retaliation “strike force” when other countries stitch up supply chains, etc batteries, semiconductors etc, rare earth:

whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
This is the US trade agenda right now, and why they are in no hurry to sign any trade deals right now - much more interested in altering the current structures of trade, in particular where it perceives China has strategically stitched up supply chains for future industries…
this is quite a sharp departure in economic approach - not at all concerned with spreading “free trade” as an end in and of itself, its a recognition that if China acts so strategically, so will the US...they’re even going to divert export trade credits to fund domestic factories
Where does UK sit in all of this? q a lot of mention of EU policy on electric cars... and the one major UK company that gets mentioned in White House report is... of course...

Arm Holdings, alongside that sale of Arm China... interesting given -

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Faisal Islam Profile picture
10 Jun
On record yesterday, Biden’s adviser Jake Sullivan told @BBCJonSopel of the President’s “very deep concern” on this issue, but didn’t get in to much granular detail…Times reporting private comments from last week suggests more detailed engagement, in particular re US trade deal
This was US Trade Rep on record last month asked about whether she would extend trade negotiations already done with UK - volunteered the administration was “keeping eye” on NI situation in relation to US-UK trade
very interesting thing in Times story is suggestion of specific incentive the US communicated to UK Gov to align agricultural standards with EU in order to solve some of the Protocol problems (EU long suggested this) - and that this wouldn’t affect chances of US-UK trade deal…
Read 4 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
7 Jun
More #Britcoin

Bank of England Governor Bailey launches discussion paper on difficult questions re “stablecoins” and CB digital money” - “prospect of stablecoins as a means of payment & emerging propositions of CBDC have generated a host of issues..” bankofengland.co.uk/paper/2021/new…
BoE: “opportunities can only be realised if new forms of digital money are safe. They could be privately provided – in form of ‘stablecoins’. Or they could be publicly provided – in the form of a central bank digital currency”..“precautionary arrangements may therefore be needed”
“new forms of digital money are assumed to be denominated in sterling. Unlike cryptoassets such as Bitcoin, which do not have an anchor, they are also assumed to be backed by assets that make them stable in value...”
Read 10 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
7 Jun
We knew Biden admin “going big” on fiscal support for its economy, but extraordinary to hear first hand from US Treas Sec Janet Yellen, that now, was time to “do more”, not even think about phasing out support, & this applied to rest G7, ie incl UK. Sets tone for #G7UK Cornwall Image
Given tax deal focus, this might have been missed at G7 -
judging timing & pace of the withdrawal of crisis support, against backdrop of record borrowing and rising inflation = THE fundamental economic judgement call.

US saying choice clear for all: /1

bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
2/ key analytical point Yellen pointed to: US being forecast to regain economic output lost in pandemic first in G7, thanks to vaccines & stimulus.

That, she said wasnt enough, all G7 econs:
- should aim at “returning to pre-pandemic growth paths” - & had fiscal space to do so
Read 6 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
6 Jun
There was published Government impact assessment at the time in late 2019 that detailed much of this stuff (thread linked) ... also a leak of a document from HMRC that also listed impact of new non tariff barriers within the UK created by the deal

leaked HMT document actually and included the phrase “highly disruptive to the NI economy” in relation to physical checks both ways (not all have so far materialised)... and that imports into NI were facing (in extra checks) “a tariff equivalent of 30%”

Typo - Tariffs equivalent ON 30% of purchases, is what the 2019 document said...
Read 6 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
5 Jun
Deal Done - historic agreement on multinational tax agreed at G7 finance meeting in London… quite a moment.
Just spoke to Irish finance minister Pascal Donohoe here at G7 - I asked him if this was the end of Ireland’s years old business model said Ireland will continue to be competitive in the change that is coming” and he will continue to make case for legitimate tax competition
NEW US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in the conclusion of this tax deal…
Says US will be first to return to pre pandemic output, and whole G7 have “fiscal space” to speed up recoveries and the conversation should be more “what more can we do now”…
Read 9 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
4 Jun
NEW:
Just spoke to French fin minister Bruno Le Maire at G7 in London.

We are “just 1mm away from an historic agreement” - says countries such as Ireland need to get “on board”.

Remaining sticking point - min tax rate, 15% “only a starting point” excl on @BBCNews channel soon
Le Maire: rate is “most tricky difficulty, and I think that if the negotiation is still underway, that's because we are still working on these really tricky points of the rate”..

“clearly 15% is only a starting point. And if it can be higher, it is better to have a higher level”
“we are spending a lot of public money to protect our economies against the consequences of COVID, and to have a quick and v strong economic recovery, but we need money, & we need new resources, I would think that these new resources are the right ones and useful for all of us.”
Read 7 tweets

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