Despite fully vaccinating 42% of the population, UK currently has a higher case load than India (3% vaccinated). Somehow this is blamed on the Indian "delta" variant, which seems to have come and gone in India (without significant NPI).
Deaths from Covid, however, remain non-existent in the UK: partially because the most vulnerable have been vaccinated first but mostly because the susceptible population in England has already died.
All-cause mortality in the UK has actually been below normal for 14 weeks consecutive weeks.

Why is the UK considering pushing out their re-opening date? Why haven't they been fully open since February?
Regarding India; remember a few weeks ago when the media was in a full panic about Indian cases & deaths?

Well, the current wave has ended in India and it's important to keep things in perspective:

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More from @Humble_Analysis

6 Jun
The CDC reports 1139 deaths with Covid for those under 25, with ~30% of those not plausibly connected to Covid (cancer, suicide, etc). During this same time period, non-Covid excess deaths were >2500.

In other words, hysteria killed at least 3.5X as many children as did Covid.
For young adults, there have been 14K reported Covid deaths with ~5% not plausibly connected; there have also been 18K non-Covid excess deaths.

While Covid deaths have largely disappeared in this age group, excess deaths of despair continue to accrue.
For the very old, Covid has proven deadly: 175K deaths. But 60K of those deaths occurred in 2021 when there were lower than expected total deaths from this age group implying death displacement, not excess.

There are also at least 32K non-Covid excess deaths in this age group.
Read 7 tweets
26 May
Excluding microstates, Uruguay currently has the highest rate of daily reported Covid cases in the world - despite having vaccinated nearly 50% of their population - and the current seasonal wave has not yet peaked:
Back in the fall, Uruguay was universally praised for having defeated Covid with the credit being given to their "high-trust" and egalitarian social order.

Compared to the rest of South America, Uruguay certainly had done better;
Unfortunately, with accelerating cases and mortality, Uruguay is not catching up to their neighbors.

It really does appear that the impacts of Covid can be delayed but not prevented, no matter what interventions are applied:
Read 6 tweets
21 May
The 75+ age group now contribute 45% of Covid fatalities reported each week, down from 60% in December.

Oddly, the infection point in the curve landed 2 months before a significant portion of this group was protected by vaccine.

Perhaps we simply ran out of vulnerable elderly.
Each age group saw deaths peak in early January, meaning infections peaked in December - before any significant portion of the population had vaccine-induced immunity.
Also, note that the decline in elderly fatalities appears to have been arrested at ~245 deaths per day. It would be interesting to know how many of these 245 had been vaccinated but that information does not seem to be publicly available.
Read 4 tweets
12 May
There are 243 million persons living in central East Africa and only 10K total reported Covid deaths. On a per capita basis, East Africa has apparently never taken part a pandemic.

Perhaps they just aren't testing enough to catch cases?
New seroprevalence study in Ethopia indicates that true cases are 5X detected cases - essentially the same as studies have indicated in the USA or Europe.

So, they are not missing an extraordinary number of cases.

So, why no deaths?…
The case fatality rate for this region is currently 2.1% with an implied IFR of 0.4%; again, this is similar to the United States.

So, it is not that those who become infected are less likely to die; rather, East Africans just have been far less likely to become infected.
Read 9 tweets
30 Apr
So far there does not appear to be a positive correlation between the number of people vaccinated in a state and the prevalence of Covid in that state.

Mississippi, for instance, has the lowest rate of vaccination and the lowest current prevalence.
Community prevalence continues to appear to be primarily driven by regional-seasonal factors with the lowest case counts across the South, from Alabama through California and the highest in the Northeast (from Michigan through Maine) plus the PNW:
Vaccination uptake has been highest in the Northeast and lowest in the Southeast (and Mountain West).

So, it is likely that those states which are currently "in season" also happen to be those with the fastest uptake and those "out of season" have the most hesitancy.
Read 4 tweets
27 Apr
A few weeks ago, the Balkans where "spiking"; now, with amazingly coincidental timing, cases are plummeting across the region:
Looking at test positivity makes clear that there were two distinct seasonal waves in the Balkans - one in late Autumn, one in early Spring.

It beggars belief that these patterns are anything more than standard regional-seasonal respiratory virus transmission.
Within this region, Hungary has vaccinated a large share of their adult population, while Bulgaria has vaccinated almost no one - and yet their cases peaked at the same time and they have the same test positivity currently.
Read 5 tweets

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