So far there does not appear to be a positive correlation between the number of people vaccinated in a state and the prevalence of Covid in that state.
Mississippi, for instance, has the lowest rate of vaccination and the lowest current prevalence.
Community prevalence continues to appear to be primarily driven by regional-seasonal factors with the lowest case counts across the South, from Alabama through California and the highest in the Northeast (from Michigan through Maine) plus the PNW:
Vaccination uptake has been highest in the Northeast and lowest in the Southeast (and Mountain West).
So, it is likely that those states which are currently "in season" also happen to be those with the fastest uptake and those "out of season" have the most hesitancy.
It appears that regional-seasonal factors are confounding any evident impact of vaccination on case rates, at least.
However, since the most vulnerable were vaccinated first (in general) we should be able to pick up a signal in CFR.
So far, though, the effect is not obvious:
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A few weeks ago, the Balkans where "spiking"; now, with amazingly coincidental timing, cases are plummeting across the region:
Looking at test positivity makes clear that there were two distinct seasonal waves in the Balkans - one in late Autumn, one in early Spring.
It beggars belief that these patterns are anything more than standard regional-seasonal respiratory virus transmission.
Within this region, Hungary has vaccinated a large share of their adult population, while Bulgaria has vaccinated almost no one - and yet their cases peaked at the same time and they have the same test positivity currently.
Excluding microstates, two of the top seven most vaccinated nations are the neighboring states of Hungary and Serbia, each having vaccinated more than 25% of the population:
Serbia initiated their program more quickly, but Hungary has recently surpassed Serbia.
It will be interesting to see if these efforts have resulted in declining infections and/or fatalities.
Initially, cases appear to have risen sharply following the launch of mass vaccination, peaking about 8 weeks later, and then falling sharply.
I spent Spring Break in Texas with my family last week and I can report that Team Apocalypse has lost the war.
Flights were 100% full with many families. In-flight food and drinks have returned. Airports packed on both ends - a world of difference from just a few months ago.
Everything is open in Texas and (outside of Austin), you'd be hard pressed to recall the "pandemic". Restaurants are crowded, people were friendly, there's live music, tourist areas are packed, there's no sanitation theater, and masks are rare.
Even in places that ostensibly require masks (Walmart, H-E-B), less than 20% of people were actually wearing a mask - and no one made a big deal about it, either way.
In fact, I never wore a mask for a single second outside of the Austin airport.
While recent weeks remain subject to revision, it now appears that mortality in the USA peaked during the first week of January and returned to below-normal levels by the end of February:
The drop in mortality over the past 10 weeks corresponds with the waning of the Covid winter season (and the apparent absence of other normal causes of excess Winter mortality):
The narrative that Covid deaths peaked in early January due to "the holidays" does not fit the data: deaths peaked in the central USA before Christmas (infections peaked before Thanksgiving).
In this region, deaths are almost certainly currently below normal.
Remember "flatten the spread"? While the models underlying these graphics were comically inept, I now believe the basic concept will turn out to be correct: the total number of infections can not be reduced, only delayed.
One choice, employed in places like South Dakota, was to do essentially nothing, allowing the virus to spread unmitigated. They have now emerged on the other side with effective seasonally-enhanced herd immunity.
Places like Italy chose the "flatten the spread" route, instituting intermittent lockdowns and ongoing safety theater to keep hospitalizations and deaths at a "manageable" level.
Cases and deaths are on the rise again in Italy, as are lockdowns and protests.
CDC monthly cause of death data is available through the end of August.
Murder increased +24% during the first 8 months of 2020 which implies that, annualized, there were ~4500 additional murders last year in the USA, compared to trend.
Drug overdoses increased +32% during the first year months of 2020; annualized, this implies ~20K excess deaths from OD.
Accidents, excluding motor vehicles, increased +19% in 2020; annualized, this implies ~21K excess deaths.