If anyone likes pullbacks to the 50d, you just got it with $CELH
This will be a great opportunity for some smart investors to come in and take advantage of the 25% pullback from the recent highs.
Tuesday was probably profit taking, yesterday was flat and today it's down 15% because of a stock offering but clearly most people are clueless about the details so let me help you.
5.5M shares are being sold by a few large insiders that have owned this stock for many years, they are just taking some profits like most of us do from time to time. On average they are selling 10% of their shares which means they are keeping the other 90% of their shares.
Since the company is only issuing 1M new shares it means we're getting1.5% dilution yet the stock is down 15% today. Doesn't make much sense.
They priced the shares at $62.50 (lower than I would have hoped) but that doesn't mean the stock should trade down to those prices.
Perhaps the people selling today forget that Nielsen scan data for April was +200% and for June was +195%. I'm going to assume that July won't be much different than June so it's very likely we still get that blowout number for Q2 earnings in August.
Since $CELH is raising approximately $62 million, that cash will be used to secure enough aluminum cans to keep up with demand and to build up product inventory to also keep up with demand from consumers, new stores and DSD partners.
This tiny 1M share raise is nothing more than a company fueling up the tank in order to keep up with their insane growth.
If your company was growing at 200% YoY, wouldn't you want some extra cash in the bank to make sure you didn't run out product in the middle of summer.
Remember that $CELH already announced they're in 92,000+ stores and working with 180+ DSD partners.
It's very likely both of these numbers are higher when the company reports Q2 numbers.
My revenue projections have not changed. My conviction has not changed.
Disclosure: I bought $CELH call options today, spread out between July, August and September expirations.
I have zero concerns about where $CELH is going over the next 12+ months. This selloff is nothing more than a buying opportunity for investors that understand the story.
Whoops, with regards to Nielsen scan data, I actually meant to say:
April +200%
May +195%
June ????
Guess I need to learn my months 😩
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3 months ago I went into my local bike shop to buy a new bike — he said the next shipment was June so I put myself down for a Trek Verve since I already have one and like it.
I went there yesterday to see if my bike had arrived yet — he said they’re coming in around June 24th.
I asked if I could do orange instead of black — he said, sure but you’ll have to wait until late August for that shipment
I said, okay put me down for the orange too
I then asked just out of curiosity do you have anything nicer you could sell me today
He said, I have zero bikes to sell in any price range. In fact, most of my suppliers are telling me 15-18 months as the lead time on new orders.
With growth stocks starting to rebound and lots of short interest across the board I'm thinking we could see a few more short squeezes in the coming weeks.
I would never buy a stock on this basis alone but it's still something worth watching and tracking.
What are some companies with strong underlying stories, strong fundamentals and/or reasonable valuation with high short interest that you think could be setting up for a short squeeze?
I'll go first: $DMTK 🚀
I love this company and short interest appears to be around 30%.
In full disclosure, I own $DMTK equity and $DMTK call options.
I believe we're going to get several more big insurance announcements in the near future plus we get the launch of Luminate later this year and Carcinome in 2022.
I think everyone on Twitter knows that I love @CelsiusOfficial the product and $CELH the stock so I'm talking my book here but figured I would share some data that I'm seeing.
I've been running numbers for $CELH and I’m getting even more bullish…
Nielsen scan data for $CELH in Q1 was around 100% YoY and that’s exactly what they reported for US operations (101% YoY).
Nielsen data for April (Q2) was 200% YoY growth so we could be looking at an epic blowout report in August because analyst estimates are still just $53M.
$53M in Q2 would be 76.7% YoY growth from 2020 Q2
If $CELH did 200% YoY for US operations (I’m expecting +180% for Q2 in US) and US was 78% of total revs in 2021 Q1 then we could be looking at 140-150% YoY for $CELH — this is not priced into $CELH
$FUTU should be a $175+ stock in the next few weeks based on these numbers.
To be honest $FUTU should be a $275+ stock in the next couple weeks based on these numbers but the fact this company is based in Hong Kong does hurt them.