Thread by @AnnieDuke

Two things determine how your life will turn out: luck and the quality of your decisions. Want to know how to make high-quality decisions with your team at work? A thread: ⬇️

2/ Poker can teach you a lot about business and life. I drew on my time playing poker in the @WSOP and my cognitive science work at @Penn to teach you how to make high-quality decisions in my book, #HowToDecide.

3/ A key insight from the book that I’ll re-emphasize here: Treat the outcome and quality of a decision separately. You can make a great decision on a bet and still lose the hand. So I’ve developed 4 exercises to help you make better bets.

4/ Exercise #1: Find areas where you disagree with your team through an exercise I call “Worlds to Likelihood.” Assign percentages to words based on how likely the thing will happen and find discrepancies.

5/ Exercise #2: Re-create what you knew and the outcome of a decision with a Knowledge Tracker. This exercise allows you to uncover resulting (assigning outcome quality to decision quality) and hindsight bias (knew-it-all-along thinking).

6/ Exercise #3: A project pre-mortem is just as important as a post-mortem. Each member on your team can create a Decision Exploration Table to explore and organize all the potential outcomes from a decision.

7/ Exercise #4: As the project leader or meeting facilitator, tie everything together with a Better Team Conversations exercise. Gather opinions and feedback and share with the rest of the team.

8/8 Adapt these 4 exercises for your own team with this @coda_hq template.

Copy my doc to get started—and let me know how it works for you.

coda.io/@annie-duke/ho…