Thread by @sinichol

Did LDs work?

To Jun11 for🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿
👉Lon/Manc/Liv Google Mobility
👉Infs implied from ONS/PHE deaths/cases
👉Gradient of infs from deaths
👉Its correl to Lon mobility
Plotting detail👇

https://twitter.com/sinichol/status/1381654427602411529

LD rsq 0.82, high

Do infs fall before LDs?
If we look at each LD...

1/5

Taking each LD in turn.

👉1stLD: as this zoom in shows, its reduction occured before so was voluntary, fear induced, but without furlough, and business grants, how could it have been sustained without bankruptcy? If we compare on this outcome to 🇸🇪, our strategy was better.

2/5

👉pre 2ndLD: Liv/Manc were main drivers of deaths going into Tier3++ LD in Sept/Oct, with Liv cases peaking Sep28, hence UK deaths flattening before 2nd LD, mobility clearly fell in both

👉2ndLD: had schools open, so saw less mobility drop, borderline enough to turn infs

3/5

👉pre 3rdLD: per these inlaid maps, Tier4+SchoolsClosed spread across the UK from Dec20. It seems clear compliance was voluntarily around Xmas with the mobility drop stabalising by Dec28

👉3rdLD: Jan4 did not change mobility level, furlough/grants have sustained this since

4/5

It's clear LDs lowered mobility. Annoying only full LDs with school closures, 1st/3rd, solidly turned infs.

But, the 2nd LD was enough, until the Kent variant.

With better adherence to lesser NPIs, masks etc, could we have made tiered local with schools open work?

5/5