- B.1.617.2 overtook B.1.1.7 recently. Observed by sequencing, & also by looking at SGTF data 👇
Something to keep in mind when looking at SGTF in US
- Also US had similar path to UK for B.1.1.7
Pro tips to look at @my_helix dashboard:
- be aware that most recent day may have very small sample size.
- You can exclude it by clicking on bar & moving mouse up. See picture.
In some states like FL, SGTF 5-day avg is 📉 66% on May 9 compared to 71% 10 days before. & SGTF likely still >95% B.1.1.7
So what is the 34% and maybe growing?
3/ You can look at the variants dashboard. It shows sequencing results. public.tableau.com/profile/helix6…
See overall trend. And counts by state (click on specific variant).
2/ on sampling:
- we do more tests in some states. & N sequenced also based on pos rate. => can click on a state, or scroll on bar to see actual count.
- we do not select for SGTF or non-SGTF.
- we show fraction of P.1. to non-SGTF.
3/ Ex: in Florida (a state where we test a lot)
- P.1 represents ~25% of non-SGTF as of April 14.
- % of pos that are SGTF in FL is stable in FL at ~70% from April 14 to April 27.
So far does not look like P.1. replacing B117. But more granular analysis & context necessary
As reported by @CDCDirector, B.1.1.7 represents more than 50% of cases in US. And fraction still increasing.
See 7 states where Helix tests a lot. Details in 🧵
2/ Before going in details on B.1.1.7, here are some stats on vaccinations in US from @CDC. What an effort! I am very optimistic for the US.
Also important to note that all vaccines work very well against the B.1.1.7 variant. It is really incredible how well they work.
3/ California
Fraction of B.1.1.7 is still increasing. Numbers are small, but I think we may have enough information to look closely at direct competition between B.1.429 and B.1.1.7. Hypothesis is that B.1.1.7 is more transmissible.
- Seq data up to Feb 26. >15,000 sequences since Jan 1.
- Check dashboard for stats on tests & variants of concerns in your state. public.tableau.com/profile/helix6…
Re B.1.1.7, Michigan 📈 fast. MN too but we have less data.
More in🧵
2/
On Method:
- Numbers of positives, SGTF etc. are only reporting those with N gene Ct <27 (we use this threshold to select samples for sequencing).
- In Jan, we enriched sequences for SGTF to get grasp of % of SGTF that are B117. Now we don't enrich for SGTF anymore.
3/
Michigan.
SGTF (pretty much all of the ones we sequenced in MI were B117) represent now more than 60% of positives in MI.
And total cases in MI also on rise based on CDC tracker. 👇