Looking at absolute counts. Restricting graph to Feb 1st to March 23rd to better see the trend.
Note: in CA, majority of our tests are done in San Diego county.
4/ Florida
Overall cases starting to increase based on CDC. From what we see, it is mostly the counts of SGTF (~B.1.1.7) that is increasing.
Yet, this increase is not super fast (compared to some states). Note the difference in Y-axis π
5/ Georgia
64% of positives are SGTF (~B.1.1.7). And importantly counts of SGTF are increasing right now.
6/ Massachusetts
It used to be the poster-child state to show that SGTF is not the same as B.1.1.7. For a long time MA, had 3-5% of positives that were SGTF and NOT B.1.1.7
Now, >90% of SGTF in MA are B.1.1.7. And SGTF counts increasing like in many states (still low numbers)
7/ Michigan
It is 1 of the states with fastest case π based on CDC. In our tests, we see fast π in counts of SGTF & also increase in non-SGTF.
Note: testing is from multiple places across state, done at a national retail pharmacy
Counts definitely low, but looks to flatten, or even increase slightly.
9/ Pennsylvania
- a great example to visualize how B.1.1.7 is more transmissible than most other variants. non-SGTF counts are flat, but SGTF π
- Based on covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra⦠there were 15,103 positives in PA from 03/19-03/23.
& 1,043 in Helix with Cq<27 (~1,500 total)
10/
A question for the experts to end this series on B.1.1.7.
When does B.1.1.7 stops being a variant of concern because it is the dominant variant, and therefore becomes the reference?
Or this does not influence nomenclature?
Looking at the US & France (I am π«π·): the US have the big advantage of vaccines. Both supply and well orchestrated distribution.
I saw live a mass vaccination event in San Mateo. It was beautiful
=> Optimistic for US & I hope France copies πΊπΈ re vaccines
Lastly, this program is result of big effort from many teams @my_helix (including lab and operations teams, engineering team, research etc.) as well as teams @illumina and many other partners including all the people involved in collecting testing samples
+ support from CDC.
Thread on variants of concerns (B.1.351, P.1, B.1.427, B.1.429)
& vars of interests (B.1.525, B.1.526) tomorrow.
- Seq data up to Feb 26. >15,000 sequences since Jan 1.
- Check dashboard for stats on tests & variants of concerns in your state. public.tableau.com/profile/helix6β¦
Re B.1.1.7, Michigan π fast. MN too but we have less data.
More inπ§΅
2/
On Method:
- Numbers of positives, SGTF etc. are only reporting those with N gene Ct <27 (we use this threshold to select samples for sequencing).
- In Jan, we enriched sequences for SGTF to get grasp of % of SGTF that are B117. Now we don't enrich for SGTF anymore.
3/
Michigan.
SGTF (pretty much all of the ones we sequenced in MI were B117) represent now more than 60% of positives in MI.
And total cases in MI also on rise based on CDC tracker. π
~50% of cases in Florida, Georgia & Texas are B.1.1.7.
in FL: Overall cases continue to π but 52.8% of pos were SGTF (S-gene target failure) on March 7.
=> We will track closely evolution
2/ In Georgia
54% of positives were SGTF on March 7.
While still ~90% of these are likely B.1.1.7, interesting to note that B.1.525 also sequenced several times in GA and also leads to SGTF
(note: B.1.525 is not a variant of concern)
3/ Texas
53% of positives were SGTF on March 7. Overall cases still going down. Again, we will keep testing, sequencing and tracking to see what happens as things reopen, and vaccinated population increases.
2/
With overall number of cases π quickly => important to look at % of positives that are B1.1.7
AND also the evolution of the absolute number of B1.1.7
Can do this based on Helix numbers,
or by multiplying % from Helix by overall number of cases reported by states and CDC
3/ CA: % of positives that are B117 now ~15-17%
Increase in absolute numbers of B117 is slower (compared to FL).
Still N of B117 is not decreasing, unlike the non-SGTF SARS-CoV-2 variants including B.1.429 & B.1.427 who are decreasing fast.
2/ Live-attenuated Yellow Fever vaccine is very safe & given to more than 600 million people.
But less than 1 in 100,000 have very severe disease after. And we know it is the same vaccine. So why?
Note: the COVID vaccines are NOT live attenuated vaccines.
3/ 5 of 8 had defects in type 1 IFN response.
- 2 had autosomal recessive loss-of-function variants in IFNAR1 & IFNAR2.
- 3 others had auto-antibodies to type 1 IFN. At high concentration, plasma of patients inhibits addition of IFNa2 in cells and virus can grow. See π