When will #BTC's correction be over? How low could its price get?
1. Bull market isn't over as fundamentals are strong 2. BTC is in another mid-cycle correction 3. If $40K-$41K support is breached, BTC could fall to $29K-$37K by end of Jan. 2022, but would quickly rebound >$40K
1. #BTC's fundamentals as reflected by key on-chain data are strong. Hash rate has reached a new ATH. LT HODLers continue to hold onto their BTC despite BTC's recent correction. Supply dynamics favor a continuation of the bull run rather than BTC diving into a bear phase.
2. BTC's price continues to track its move from Jan. 21- Jul. 21. (areas marked in pink boxes), but could be 5 days shorter in duration.
The current correction is similar to that of last summer & thus could be over at the end of Jan. 2022.
1b/ The #BTC LGC (Logarithmic Growth Curves) model is introduced to gauge cycle peak timing & cycle peak price taking into account the growth pattern of BTC.
#BTC is finally rebounding, but how high could its price get?
TLDR:
If impulse move plays out:
High: $74K
Middle: $62-$64K
Low: $46K-$51K
Timing: Mid-Jan. to End of Mar. 2022
If move fails, BTC could test $32K-$37K
Timing: Mid-Jan to Mid-Feb. 2022
1a/ Parallel channel breakout
If #BTC breaks out from its downward sloping parallel channel, it could have a price increase of $17.2K from the point of breakout. If there is a confirmed break of the upper channel (~$44.5K), the target price is ~$62K.
Strong resistance at $46K.
1b/ If #BTC fails to break out of the channel, it'd retest the $40K-$41K resistance again before resuming up. Breaching that, it'd fall between $32K & $37K.
As the bull phase is still intact, it shouldn't fall below (Wave 2= $29.2K*).
1a/This model (LGC) is constructed on Tradingview with #BTC log growth curves developed by @quantadelic with log Fib levels & time-based Fib zones added on a 2-week BTC chart. This is similar to TechDevโs chart, but the cycle peak log Fib level is at 2.618 & not 2.272.
2a/ To derive the timing of the cycle peak, time-based Fib zones are drawn from mid-cycle correction to the peak of the impulse move after that correction at or above the 1.618 log Fib level.
In past cycles, the peak occurred right between time-based 1.618 Fib & 2 Fib zones.
Some people are calling a giant head & should pattern for #BTC with a target price of $10K-$18K. Possible, but highly unlikely! Why?
TLDR: 1. US10Y: Bullish 2. BTC Futures: Bullish 3. BTC Options Bullish 4. Technicals: BTC could grind down to $40K-$41K & then rebound to $64K
1a/ #BTC's price has been highly correlated with US10Y & they had moved in lock-steps since 11/8/21 until last week. Traders risked off ahead of the Fed minutes & sold stocks & BTC.
1b/ The Fed will probably quicken the pace of tapering & raise rates sooner, but will likely allow their treasuries holdings to mature (no quantitative tightening or shrinking of B/S).
As long as the US economy is growing, a modest rate hike won't crash the markets.
2. Projected Peak Timing: Early 2nd Qtr. 2022 3. Model points to lengthening of cycle 4. Projected next cycle peak in late 3rd Qtr. 2026 when hyperbitcoinization may occur
1/ The fact that #BTC prices closed below the arc of the original BLX model in 2 consecutive months means that something is wrong either in the model or bull phase is over.
I don't think the cycle peak is in so I started anew. I used parallel channels to reconstruct the model.