Allen Au ๐Ÿงข Profile picture
Jun 10, 2021 โ€ข 9 tweets โ€ข 5 min read โ€ข Read on X
๐—–๐—ง๐—  #๐—•๐—ง๐—– ๐—ข๐—ป-๐—–๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐— ๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ ๐——๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ฏ๐—ผ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฑ: ๐—ช๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ธ ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฎ ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿญ

๐—•๐—ง๐—– ๐—ฃ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ธ ๐—œ๐—ป๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜€

TLDR: All 7 indicators show that BTC has neither peaked nor is in its bear phase

Note #3, #4 & #7 indicate that BTC could be in its mid-cycle correction*
* #4 & #7 show that BTC is behaving like its price action 6 days before the final dip in the mid-cycle correction in 2013.

If this plays out, we could see the low of the mid-cycle correction in 2021 around 6/12/21.๐Ÿ‘€

HODL #BTC!
๐Ÿญ. ๐— ๐—ฉ๐—ฅ๐—ฉ-๐—ญ ๐—ฆ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ (>๐Ÿณ.๐Ÿฑ): ๐—ก๐—ผ

6/6/21 Value: 1.63

For #BTC to enter its bear phase, MVRV-Z Score will go to the pink zone first and then trend downward. This hasn't happened yet.
๐Ÿฎ. ๐Ÿญ-๐—ฌ๐—ฟ+ ๐—›๐—ข๐—Ÿ๐—— ๐—ช๐—ฎ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ (~๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿณ%): ๐—ก๐—ผ

6/6/21 Value: 54%
๐Ÿฏ. ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐—ฅ๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ธ (>๐Ÿฌ.๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ): ๐—ก๐—ผ

6/6/21 Value: 0.004*

*This is similar to that in the mid-cycle correction in 2017.

For #BTC to enter its bear phase, Reserve Risk will go to the pink zone first and then trend downward. This hasn't happened yet.
๐Ÿฐ. ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—น๐—ถ๐˜‡๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—›๐—ข๐——๐—Ÿ ๐—ฅ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ (๐—ฅ๐—›๐—ฅ) (>๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿฌ๐—ž): ๐—ก๐—ผ

6/6/21 Value: 6,321*

*This is similar to that in the mid-cycle correction in 2013 and 2017.

For #BTC to enter its bear phase, RHR will go to the pink zone first & then trend downward. This hasn't occurred yet.
๐Ÿฑ. ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—น๐—ถ๐˜‡๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—–๐—ฎ๐—ฝ ๐—›๐—ข๐——๐—Ÿ ๐—ช๐—ฎ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐˜€ (๐Ÿฏ๐—ฟ๐—ฑ ๐—ช๐—ฎ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ):
๐—ช๐—ฎ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐Ÿญ

For #BTC to enter its bear phase, Realized Cap HODL Waves will have to go through a 3-wave pattern. This hasn't happened yet.
๐Ÿฒ. ๐—ฃ๐˜‚๐—ฒ๐—น๐—น ๐— ๐˜‚๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฝ๐—น๐—ฒ (>๐Ÿฐ): ๐—ก๐—ผ

6/6/21 Value: 1.33

For #BTC to enter its bear phase, Puell Multiple will go to the pink zone first and then trend downward. This hasn't happened yet.
๐Ÿณ. ๐—ก๐—จ๐—ฃ๐—Ÿ (๐—•๐—น๐˜‚๐—ฒ): ๐—ก๐—ผ ๐—˜๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—ต๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฎ

6/6/21 Value: 0.43 (Yellow)*

* This is similar to that in the mid-cycle correction in 2013.

For #BTC to enter its bear phase, NUPL will be in Euphoria first. This hasn't happened yet.

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More from @AllenAu11

Jan 18, 2022
When will #BTC's correction be over? How low could its price get?

1. Bull market isn't over as fundamentals are strong
2. BTC is in another mid-cycle correction
3. If $40K-$41K support is breached, BTC could fall to $29K-$37K by end of Jan. 2022, but would quickly rebound >$40K Image
1. #BTC's fundamentals as reflected by key on-chain data are strong. Hash rate has reached a new ATH. LT HODLers continue to hold onto their BTC despite BTC's recent correction. Supply dynamics favor a continuation of the bull run rather than BTC diving into a bear phase.
2. BTC's price continues to track its move from Jan. 21- Jul. 21. (areas marked in pink boxes), but could be 5 days shorter in duration.

The current correction is similar to that of last summer & thus could be over at the end of Jan. 2022.
Read 8 tweets
Jan 15, 2022
#Bitcoin Cycle Peak Dash Board

TLDR:
1. The Dash Board is revamped with the update of the BLX & Top Cap models & the intro. of LGC model

2. 4 models to better gauge peak timing

3. Projected Cycle Peak

Timing: 2nd-3rd Qtr. 2022
Price: $100K-$200K
Hopium Price: $320K Image
1a/ The #BTC Cycle Peak Dash Board is revamped with the update of the Top Cap & BLX Models.



1b/ The #BTC LGC (Logarithmic Growth Curves) model is introduced to gauge cycle peak timing & cycle peak price taking into account the growth pattern of BTC.

Read 12 tweets
Jan 12, 2022
#BTC is finally rebounding, but how high could its price get?

TLDR:
If impulse move plays out:
High: $74K
Middle: $62-$64K
Low: $46K-$51K
Timing: Mid-Jan. to End of Mar. 2022

If move fails, BTC could test $32K-$37K
Timing: Mid-Jan to Mid-Feb. 2022
1a/ Parallel channel breakout

If #BTC breaks out from its downward sloping parallel channel, it could have a price increase of $17.2K from the point of breakout. If there is a confirmed break of the upper channel (~$44.5K), the target price is ~$62K.

Strong resistance at $46K.
1b/ If #BTC fails to break out of the channel, it'd retest the $40K-$41K resistance again before resuming up. Breaching that, it'd fall between $32K & $37K.

As the bull phase is still intact, it shouldn't fall below (Wave 2= $29.2K*).

* Not Elliott Wave count
Read 6 tweets
Jan 10, 2022
The following #BTC peak model with time-based Fib is inspired by @TechDev_52 who combines BTC log growth curves with Fib levels on a 2-week BTC chart.

TLDR:
BTC Cycle Peak
Price:
- High: $180K
- Middle: $120K
- Low: $96K
Time: 2nd Qtr. '22

2.618 Fib: $370K (1st Qtr. '24)? Image
1a/This model (LGC) is constructed on Tradingview with #BTC log growth curves developed by @quantadelic with log Fib levels & time-based Fib zones added on a 2-week BTC chart. This is similar to TechDevโ€™s chart, but the cycle peak log Fib level is at 2.618 & not 2.272.
2a/ To derive the timing of the cycle peak, time-based Fib zones are drawn from mid-cycle correction to the peak of the impulse move after that correction at or above the 1.618 log Fib level.

In past cycles, the peak occurred right between time-based 1.618 Fib & 2 Fib zones.
Read 8 tweets
Jan 6, 2022
Some people are calling a giant head & should pattern for #BTC with a target price of $10K-$18K. Possible, but highly unlikely! Why?

TLDR:
1. US10Y: Bullish
2. BTC Futures: Bullish
3. BTC Options Bullish
4. Technicals: BTC could grind down to $40K-$41K & then rebound to $64K
1a/ #BTC's price has been highly correlated with US10Y & they had moved in lock-steps since 11/8/21 until last week. Traders risked off ahead of the Fed minutes & sold stocks & BTC.
1b/ The Fed will probably quicken the pace of tapering & raise rates sooner, but will likely allow their treasuries holdings to mature (no quantitative tightening or shrinking of B/S).

As long as the US economy is growing, a modest rate hike won't crash the markets.
Read 10 tweets
Jan 5, 2022
UPDATE: BLX Cycle Peak Model

#BTC again closed below the arc of the BLX model on 12/31/21 so that invalidated 1/9/22 & $350K peak predictions.

Started afresh, fixed model & found 2 numbers: 608 & 2191.

TLDR:
1. Cycle Peak Price
- $325K (Best case)
- $95K-$155K (Base case)
๐Ÿ‘‡
TLDR (Cont...)

2. Projected Peak Timing: Early 2nd Qtr. 2022
3. Model points to lengthening of cycle
4. Projected next cycle peak in late 3rd Qtr. 2026 when hyperbitcoinization may occur
1/ The fact that #BTC prices closed below the arc of the original BLX model in 2 consecutive months means that something is wrong either in the model or bull phase is over.

I don't think the cycle peak is in so I started anew. I used parallel channels to reconstruct the model.
Read 17 tweets

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