Thread by @RayArmat

Thread
1. Finally, I managed to spare 2 hours to do my own analysis. This thread is for anyone who, like me, is really curious about the containment of #COVID19 Death & Mortality over time, free from left/right political bias or conspiracy theories. It is unfortunate such an ..

2.. analysis is either unavailable or politicized. Here we go:
Y-axis: Absolute Difference in % All-cause Excess Mortality by age group for different states between Mid Dec. 2020 (Phase 1 of pandemic) & May 15, 2021, Phase II after shots & mandatory masks.
X-axis: % of resident..

3.. in each state who received at least one shot as of June 6, 2006. The confidence box at +/- 10% Excess mortality rate difference: Arbitrarily used as a level of insignificance caused by report delays or noise. Much of the data lies within this box.
Conclusions:
#pandemic

1) In most states, excess death is now LOWER than 2021 In 85+ age group & HIGHER in 25-65 age group & especially in 25-44 age group. Possible factors: Shots, Shedding from vaxed, and/or the tragic loss of vulnerable #seniors last year from COVID-19 so the vulnerable pool ..

is smaller in 2021.
2) NY already suffered heavy death toll among younger people last year
CA & to a lesser extent TX, are the opposite of NY, with excess death in most age groups higher in 2021
3) Vax. rate by state does not seem to correlate with reduction in excess mortality..

If anything there seems to be a trend of higher excess death in the 25-44 years age group in states with higher vax. rates, particularly in VT and ME with percentages off the chart! Really peculiar trends (#Vermont excess death in 2021 is about 10 times normal!)
#heart #medicine

For example, in the US overall, week 50, 2020 age 25-44, excess death at 25.8% increase but in week 16 of 2021, excess death at 40% so delta=40-25.8=14.2% so 2021 excess death rate is above & beyond 2020 excess death rate by about 14.2% across the nation for 25-44 age group

More clarification: Vermont & Maine numbers may be aberrations but exaggerated by the small numbers. For example, according to USmortality.com:
Vermont reported 33 deaths of 25-44 ages for 2020. Expected deaths were 9, so an increase/decrease of 24 deaths (266.7%).To date

, for the year 2021, Vermont reported 26 deaths of 25-44 ages. Expected deaths thus far, were 2. That is an increase/decrease of 24 deaths (1200.0%)
So as you see these are small extrapolated numbers but trend may be real if you check 45-64 age group that says: Vermont reported.

1,331 deaths of 45-64 ages for year 2020. Expected deaths were 903 . That is an increase/decrease of 428 deaths (47.4%).
To date in 2021, Vermont reported 805 deaths of 45-64 ages. Expected deaths thus far, were 354. That is an increase/decrease of 451 deaths (+127.4%). Maine .

reported 526 deaths of 25-44 ages for year 2020. Expected deaths were 300 so an increase/decrease of 226 deaths (+75.3%).
To date, for the year 2021, Maine reported 285 deaths of 25-44 ages. Expected deaths thus far, were 100. That is an increase/decrease of 185 deaths (+185.0%).

So as we see, the trend in increase excess mortality rates seems real & widespread, but seem lower in states with lower vax rates like MS, LA or AL, all around or less than 20% absolute increase in % excess mortality.. and I just realized today that actually a similar analysis...

Has been done by @BenMarten but nationwide year over year (not plotted against vax rates by state). great analysis by him.