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Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
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11 Jun, 3 tweets, 2 min read
Highly Contagious Delta Variant Now Makes Up 91% Of U.K.’s New Covid Cases

Expected to expand in Europe as there are insufficient travel restrictions to prevent its spread.

forbes.com/sites/jemimamc…

1/
Japan is relaxing restrictions in three prefectures with declining cases. Geographic opening up rather than sectoral opening up is sound, but reaching zero and protecting from importing new cases is essential to protect gains.

2/
The delta variant is becoming more dominant in the US, restrictions are being relaxed.

Looking at California, NY, and Massachusetts, the decline in recent weeks seems to have stopped, with a possibility that cases are beginning to rise again. Too early to tell for sure.

3/

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More from @yaneerbaryam

Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
6 Jun
India's cases are rapidly declining, now down from over 400k per day to just over 100k per day.

1/ Image
The rate of decline is about as fast as the increase, about 33% per week. Much faster than the first peak decline in the fall of last year. The attached logarithmic plot shows this as well.

2/ Image
Looking at the situation by state we see the declines across states. The largest peak in Maharashtra is down by more than 4X.

3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
6 Jun
Alert: UK sees a large uptick in infections -- up 69% from last week -- despite 60% of people at least partially vaccinated, 40% fully vaccinated, and partial social distancing measures still in place.

1/
US vaccination rates are similar to the UK: 51% at least partially vaccinated, 41.5% fully vaccinated. Cases are still falling, but the Indian variant is not dominant. As the recent UK rise shows, cases can rise abruptly again, despite large numbers being vaccinated.

2/
Colombia reports 30,000 new cases -- the biggest one-day increase on record.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
2 Jun
At this year's World Health Assembly, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison advocates ending the pandemic. This is in contrast to many officials planning to accept Covid as a permanent part of life.

We applaud P.M. Morrison.

1/
WHO announced greek letter naming for variants.

More attention must be paid to _eliminating_ all variants rather than tolerating them. If we eliminated COVID-19 --- which we CAN -- we wouldn't need to name variants at all. Intentional success is possible in a few months.

2/
Stigma for countries of origin makes no sense... At the rate we're going, every country will have its own dangerous variant soon.
The main issue isn't stigma over their variant -- it's that ALL countries are will suffer due to the continued tolerance of COVID!

3/
Read 7 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
30 May
Vietnam this month has its largest spike in COVID-19 cases, possibly due to a newly detected variant combining mutations of the variants originally found in the UK and India. This past month has accounted for 50% of cases, and 25% of deaths.

1/
Sequence data is not yet released for the new variant, nor is there extensive analysis of whether the variant is more deadly or more vaccine-evading than previous variants.

2/
Religious events are now banned nationwide, and major cities have closed non-essential business and public parks.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
29 May
Elimination as a global exit strategy:

Stable elimination of COVID-19, which allowed economies to fully reopen, was possible without vaccines, as described in this paper and demonstrated by multiple countries.

1/
nature.com/articles/s4200…

1/
The stability of elimination requires restrictions only in regions that had active uncontained outbreaks; uninfected regions can fully open up.

2/
With (partial) immunity from vaccines, elimination becomes that much easier, as the same restrictions are able to achieve a much faster rate of exponential decline in the number of infections.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
28 May
Australia has been enjoying pre-pandemic life for many months except for few day "snap lockdowns."

Victoria, the 2nd most populous state, is now locking down for a week over ‘highly infectious’ variant outbreak (37 total cases)

1/
globalnews.ca/news/7897419/a…
The B1.617.1 variant first found in India, which is now in Victoria, is thought not to be as rapidly transmitting as the B1.617.2 variant that is now dominating in UK.

However, evidence from Australia suggests B1.617.1 is also a much greater challenge to control.

2/
There are two ways the variant seems different.

The first is a shorter time between being infected and infecting someone else.

"Our contact tracers are identifying and locking down first ring, second ring and third ring contacts within 24 hours.

premier.vic.gov.au/statement-acti…

3/
Read 13 tweets

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