Construction output in April 2021 was 2.0% lower than March's recent peak (that was above pre-Covid-19 levels). Comparisons with a year ago are irrelevant given April 2020 was the nadir during the initial lockdown but... #ukconstruction#construction ons.gov.uk/businessindust…
... as a more appropriate reference point construction output in April 2021 was 0.4% lower than in January 2020, pre-Covid-19 so it remains a 'V'-shaped recovery for construction output so far compared with a 'W'-shaped recovery for UK GDP... #ukconstruction#construction
Looking how the key sectors have evolved since January 2020, pre-Covid-19, there remains a distinct difference between the sectors in which activity is considerably higher than pre-Covid-19 (private housing rm&i & infrastructure), in contrast to... #ukconstruction#construction
... the sectors in which activity in April 2021 remained considerably below pre-Covid-19, levels. Note monthly output data are often revised later so don't be surprised if the ONS ends up revising private housing & rm&i in April 2021 upward... #ukconstruction#construction
Infrastructure output in April 2021 was 10.9% higher than in March & 18.3% higher than in January 2020 due to major projects (HS2, Hinkley Point C, Tideway) & long-term frameworks in water, energy, roads, rail with 5-year spending plans & certainty of funding &... #ukconstruction
... & despite ONS reporting that private housing rm&i output fell 7.1% in April 2021 (but expect it to be revised upward as most firms in the sector say activity in April was in line with March's), output in April 2021 remained 10.8% higher than pre-Covid-19... #ukconstruction
... & ONS also reported that private housing output fell 11.1% in April 2021 (but expect it to be revised upward as house builders say activity in April was in line with March's). According to ONS, private housing output in April was 11.8% lower than pre-Covid-19... #ukhousing
... & ONS reported that commercial (offices, retail & leisure) output in April 2021 was 6.2% lower than March & 15.9% lower than pre-Covid-19. Commercial output rose between January 2021 & March in advance of the easing of social distancing restrictions, which... #ukconstruction
... meant a short-lived increase in primarily fit-out work on existing commercial buildings, preparing offices, retail & leisure for use/reuse as restrictions ease but there remain relatively towers projects in the pipeline to replace those finishing... #ukconstruction
... whilst industrial (factories & warehouses) output in April 2021 was 0.7% higher than in March but 28.9% lower than pre-Covid-19 according to ONS. Warehouses construction continues to enjoy a 'boom' period, buoyed by high internet spending demand but... #ukconstruction
... factories construction remains subdued as the pipeline of new projects, to replace those finishing, is reliant on large upfront investment decisions by manufacturers for a long-term rate of return, which have been difficult to justify in the last 12 months. #ukconstruction
The UK construction workforce yet fell again in 2024 Q2 according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). In 2024 Q2, there were 2.04 million workers in UK construction, 5.1% lower than a year ago & it was at its lowest level since 2000 Q1. (1/n)
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The number of workers in UK construction in 2024 Q2 was 385,286 (15.9%) lower than at the recent peak in 2019 Q1 & 523,572 workers (21.0%) lower than at the longer-term peak in 2008 Q3, which was just before the impacts of the financial crisis. (2/n)
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Unsurprisingly, the main reason for the sharp decline in the UK construction workforce is the more than 20% fall in the two largest construction sectors; house building & housing repair, maintenance & improvement (rm&i) but... (3/n)
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A thread on the latest UK construction employment data for 2024 Q1 as the industry continues to lose key skilled workers who will be critical for economic growth, productivity, building more homes, better infrastructure & net zero transition. (1/n)
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There were 2.08 million people employed in UK construction in 2024 Q1, which is 1.9% lower than in Q4 & a year ago plus 14.3% lower (347,000 fewer workers) than at the recent peak in 2019 Q1. This sharp fall in construction workers is... (2/n)
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... partly due to the double-digit falls in activity in the 2 largest construction sectors, private house building & private housing repair, maintenance & improvement (rm&i). The sharp decline in UK construction employment also includes the... (3/n)
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A long thread on the latest ONS construction output data for March 2024... Construction output in a weather-affected March was 0.4% lower than in rain-affected February & 2.2% lower than a year ago according to the ONS. (1/n)
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Given the impact of the poor weather on construction activity in 2024 Q1, especially outdoor construction activity, 2024 Q2 may see a degree catch-up activity, although note that... (2/n)
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... whilst an extent of catch up activity in construction may occur on larger sites, most smaller sites lack the additional spare capacity needed to catch up so work generally just ends up being pushed back instead. (3/n)
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A thread highlighting the major age-demographic problem in the UK construction workforce &, critically, the rapid acceleration of the age-demographic problem since 2019 Q1 with a loss of over 300,000 UK construction workers. (1/n)
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In 2019 Q1, UK construction already had an age-demographic problem in the UK-born workforce, with a spike in employment in the 50-64 ages so construction was set to lose over 500,000 workers (1/4 of the workforce) in 10-15 years. (2/n)
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However, the age-demographic problem & the loss of UK-born construction employment has accelerated rapidly between 2019 Q1 & 2023 Q4 with a loss of more than 300,000 UK construction workers in less than five years. (3/n)
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4,378 UK construction firms went out of business in the year to December 2023. This is 5.1% higher than a year ago & 37.9% higher than in the year to January 2020, pre-pandemic, according to this morning's Government Insolvency Service data. (1/n)
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The 4,378 UK construction firms that went under in the UK in year to December 2023 was at its highest levels since the financial crisis, over 10 years ago. In fact,... (2/n)
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... UK construction insolvencies were already at their highest levels since the financial crisis at the end of 2022 & have continued to gradually rise since then & UK construction insolvencies are expected to continue to rise further in 2024 H1. (3/n)
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UK brick deliveries in August 2023 (a proxy for actual house building starts as housebuilders rushed through 'technical starts' in Q2, doing the minimum necessary to get ahead of the uprated building regulations F, L, O & S that add cost) were... (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
... 5.6% lower than in July & 30.2% lower than a year ago (which was a high base prior to the Mini Budget that led to the initial sharp rise in mortgage rates & fall in housing demand) & we are seeing the impact of... (2/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
... the lagged impact of mortgage rate rises in May & June on not only the housing market but house building starts, with house builders unsurprisingly focusing on completing existing developments rather than starting new developments. (3/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction