Construction output in April 2021 was 2.0% lower than March's recent peak (that was above pre-Covid-19 levels). Comparisons with a year ago are irrelevant given April 2020 was the nadir during the initial lockdown but... #ukconstruction#construction ons.gov.uk/businessindust…
... as a more appropriate reference point construction output in April 2021 was 0.4% lower than in January 2020, pre-Covid-19 so it remains a 'V'-shaped recovery for construction output so far compared with a 'W'-shaped recovery for UK GDP... #ukconstruction#construction
Looking how the key sectors have evolved since January 2020, pre-Covid-19, there remains a distinct difference between the sectors in which activity is considerably higher than pre-Covid-19 (private housing rm&i & infrastructure), in contrast to... #ukconstruction#construction
... the sectors in which activity in April 2021 remained considerably below pre-Covid-19, levels. Note monthly output data are often revised later so don't be surprised if the ONS ends up revising private housing & rm&i in April 2021 upward... #ukconstruction#construction
Infrastructure output in April 2021 was 10.9% higher than in March & 18.3% higher than in January 2020 due to major projects (HS2, Hinkley Point C, Tideway) & long-term frameworks in water, energy, roads, rail with 5-year spending plans & certainty of funding &... #ukconstruction
... & despite ONS reporting that private housing rm&i output fell 7.1% in April 2021 (but expect it to be revised upward as most firms in the sector say activity in April was in line with March's), output in April 2021 remained 10.8% higher than pre-Covid-19... #ukconstruction
... & ONS also reported that private housing output fell 11.1% in April 2021 (but expect it to be revised upward as house builders say activity in April was in line with March's). According to ONS, private housing output in April was 11.8% lower than pre-Covid-19... #ukhousing
... & ONS reported that commercial (offices, retail & leisure) output in April 2021 was 6.2% lower than March & 15.9% lower than pre-Covid-19. Commercial output rose between January 2021 & March in advance of the easing of social distancing restrictions, which... #ukconstruction
... meant a short-lived increase in primarily fit-out work on existing commercial buildings, preparing offices, retail & leisure for use/reuse as restrictions ease but there remain relatively towers projects in the pipeline to replace those finishing... #ukconstruction
... whilst industrial (factories & warehouses) output in April 2021 was 0.7% higher than in March but 28.9% lower than pre-Covid-19 according to ONS. Warehouses construction continues to enjoy a 'boom' period, buoyed by high internet spending demand but... #ukconstruction
... factories construction remains subdued as the pipeline of new projects, to replace those finishing, is reliant on large upfront investment decisions by manufacturers for a long-term rate of return, which have been difficult to justify in the last 12 months. #ukconstruction
A thread highlighting the major age-demographic problem in the UK construction workforce &, critically, the rapid acceleration of the age-demographic problem since 2019 Q1 with a loss of over 300,000 UK construction workers. (1/n)
#ukconstruction #construction #ukhousing
In 2019 Q1, UK construction already had an age-demographic problem in the UK-born workforce, with a spike in employment in the 50-64 ages so construction was set to lose over 500,000 workers (1/4 of the workforce) in 10-15 years. (2/n)
#ukconstruction #construction #ukhousing
However, the age-demographic problem & the loss of UK-born construction employment has accelerated rapidly between 2019 Q1 & 2023 Q4 with a loss of more than 300,000 UK construction workers in less than five years. (3/n)
#ukconstruction #construction #ukhousing
4,378 UK construction firms went out of business in the year to December 2023. This is 5.1% higher than a year ago & 37.9% higher than in the year to January 2020, pre-pandemic, according to this morning's Government Insolvency Service data. (1/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
The 4,378 UK construction firms that went under in the UK in year to December 2023 was at its highest levels since the financial crisis, over 10 years ago. In fact,... (2/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
... UK construction insolvencies were already at their highest levels since the financial crisis at the end of 2022 & have continued to gradually rise since then & UK construction insolvencies are expected to continue to rise further in 2024 H1. (3/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
UK brick deliveries in August 2023 (a proxy for actual house building starts as housebuilders rushed through 'technical starts' in Q2, doing the minimum necessary to get ahead of the uprated building regulations F, L, O & S that add cost) were... (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
... 5.6% lower than in July & 30.2% lower than a year ago (which was a high base prior to the Mini Budget that led to the initial sharp rise in mortgage rates & fall in housing demand) & we are seeing the impact of... (2/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
... the lagged impact of mortgage rate rises in May & June on not only the housing market but house building starts, with house builders unsurprisingly focusing on completing existing developments rather than starting new developments. (3/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction
Private house building starts in England in 2023 Q1 were 6.1% lower than in the previous quarter & 17.8% lower than a year ago according to the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities (DLUHC). (1/n)
#ukhousing #housing
Private house building starts in England in 2023 Q1 were also 34.0% lower than the recent peak in 2022 Q2 although note that this recent peak for starts was an artificial peak boosted by house builders getting ahead of the building regulations changes... (2/n)
#ukhousing #housing
... with the building regulations changes adding extra cost for house builders due to uprated Part F, Part L Part O & Part S (Infrastructure for charging electric vehicles). Hence, why completions did not spike in line with starts last year. (3/n)
#ukhousing #housing
A long thread on the initial direct & indirect impacts of the chaos in the markets over the past week on UK house building & construction ... #ukconstruction#construction#ukhousing#housing
It's clearly early days into the government-made chaos in the financial markets but there are some impacts for the UK construction industry that we can identify (albeit quantifying them is a much greater issue)... #ukconstruction#construction#ukhousing#housing
Firstly, Sterling depreciations mean further rises in construction materials prices, which in July 2022 were already 24% higher than a year ago. Sterling has depreciated 12% since the end of July &... #ukconstruction#construction#ukhousing#housing
A further rise in UK construction materials prices as expected as the spikes in energy costs & commodity prices continue to feed through after the Ukraine invasion. Materials prices in April 2022 were 25.2% higher than a year ago according to BEIS... #ukconstruction#construction
... & the 25.2% annual increase in UK construction materials prices in April 2022 compares with 24.5% in March & the recent peak of 23.7% in October 2021 (when there were materials availability issues) & it is worth noting that, firstly,... #ukconstruction#construction
... materials prices in April 2022 were not only 25.2% higher than a year ago but prices are now 38.4% higher than in January 2020, pre-pandemic, which affects contractors on fixed-price contracts signed up to over the last few years, secondly... #ukconstruction#construction