A thread on vaccination.
Vaccination rates are creeping back up again slowly.
55% of the ADULT population are double jabbed, but less than 45% of the TOTAL population.
We need to speed up as much as possible and make a decision on vaccinating children.
After a dip, which seems to have been caused by the late May bank holiday we have recovered a bit, but vaccination is a way below record levels.
This is a bit disappointing given how important the vaccination programme is in the face of the rising delta variant.
Still, 78% of the adult population have had at least one dose and 55% have had their second jab. This is great news and we have a lot to be thankful for.
Facing the delta variant without the vaccine programme doesn't bear thinking about.
However, over 55% of the TOTAL UK population (including children) remain without the full protection required to fend off the Delta variant.
This is a concern and explains why delta has been able to spread so rapidly - largely in the unvaccinated proportion of our population.
By country, Wales is still surging ahead in terms of first doses (87% of the adult population).
All the home nations are roughly level pegging with regards to second doses (50-55%).
Remember with delta it's two doses that really makes a difference.
Vaccination is going well. This seems especially true when we just look at the adult population, but remember, children can catch and spread COVID, so it's important to look at proportions of the TOTAL population.
We'll be looking at the issues around vaccinating children against COVID at this afternoon's @IndependentSage briefing.

With thanks, as ever, to Bob Hawkins with his help preparing the data.

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More from @Kit_Yates_Maths

11 Jun
A short thread on the impact of COVID on schools.
TL;DR - Despite schools being "open", COVID is still markedly disrupting children's education.
Tens of thousands of pupils are missing out on education each week due to covid-related reasons.
We can do better to avoid this.
136,700 pupils were absent from English state primary and secondary schools on 28th May due to covid-related reasons.
The majority are absent due to being asked to isolate due to an in-school contact.
Relatively few are actually due to confirmed cases.
Here, the percentage of absences (by reason) for primary school pupils (bars - right axis) and the total number (blue - left axis) were increasing up to Easter. Dropped significantly and rose again to half term.
Read 10 tweets
11 Jun
A short🧵on hospitalisations.
We know cases are rising rapidly (see🧵below), but will this translate into hospital admissions and occupancy and how fast?
Tl;DR - too early to tell exactly, but the link hospital-case has not been completely broken.

Despite the rise in cases, hospital admissions have been slower to rise across England.
Part of the reason is that hospitalisations lag cases by a week or so, so we would expect them to rise later.
Part of the reason is the people being infected are less likely to need hospital.
Occupancy seems to be rising even more slowly.
This might be because the people going to hospital are less severely ill and can de discharged more quickly meaning their residence time is less.
You can barely see the rise here, which seems like good news.
Read 7 tweets
11 Jun
A thread on cases and positivity rates in the UK.
Firstly, cases are going up almost as quickly as in September - Doubling every 9 days. We're nowhere near where we were at the peak in Jan, but be under no illusion, cases are rising quickly.
Scotland's cases (per 100k) are currently rising fastest, reflecting the fact they seem to have been impacted by the delta variant earlier on.
Next fastest it England and then Wales.
In Northern Ireland cases still seem to be coming down.
It's a similar story with positivity - rising most rapidly in Scotland, more slowly in England and Wales and declining in Northern Ireland.
Read 6 tweets
19 May
The @NAOorguk issued a report criticising the Government over its failure to prepare for the pandemic.
The report has received surprisingly little air time, so here is a thread summarising some of the findings.
TL;DR A lot of lessons to learn.
The report looks at UK's preparedness for "unforseen events and extreme shocks", not just pandemic preparedness.
It concludes
"The UK was not as prepared for the pandemic as it could have been, and government lacked detailed contingency plans to manage the unfolding situation."
While the report notes
"many examples of impressive national and local responses to the urgent need for healthcare and economic support"...

Read 15 tweets
19 May
I’ve heard lots of hot takes recently about how scientists are “basking in the limelight” and “don’t want the pandemic to end”.
None of the scientists I know are enjoying the pandemic.
Every single one of them would forgo every media appearance over the last 15 months for the pandemic not to have happened.
To suggest otherwise is cynical in the extreme.
My kids haven’t seen their granddad for 15 months.
Personally, I could do without giving up two hours of time with my kids on a Sunday afternoon preparing and 15 minutes recording all for 10 seconds of air time.
Read 4 tweets
18 May
I chatted with @nicktaq on @SkyNews yesterday about B1617.2 - the variant first sequenced in India.
Firstly, will I be hugging?
I’m going to see my 80-year-old dad next week who I haven’t seen for 15 months, and I don’t plan to hug him, especially since I haven’t been vaccinated.
The government have said at every stage that each stage of the unlocking should be irreversible. At the moment SAGE is suggesting B1617.2 could be significantly more transmissible, which suggests we are not meeting the 4th test of the roadmap.
Even though the genie is out of the bottle, there are still somethings we can do:
Border control, including mandatory managed isolation for all arrivals;
Support for isolation;
Surge testing and vaccination;
Fixing the test and trace system to keep on top of new outbreaks…
Read 4 tweets

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