I chatted with @nicktaq on @SkyNews yesterday about B1617.2 - the variant first sequenced in India.
Firstly, will I be hugging?
I’m going to see my 80-year-old dad next week who I haven’t seen for 15 months, and I don’t plan to hug him, especially since I haven’t been vaccinated.
The government have said at every stage that each stage of the unlocking should be irreversible. At the moment SAGE is suggesting B1617.2 could be significantly more transmissible, which suggests we are not meeting the 4th test of the roadmap.
Even though the genie is out of the bottle, there are still somethings we can do:
Border control, including mandatory managed isolation for all arrivals;
Support for isolation;
Surge testing and vaccination;
Fixing the test and trace system to keep on top of new outbreaks…
Is the onus in the public now?
I think the ‘be cautious’ messages from the government is an abdication fo responsibility. I would urge people to be cautious about mixing indoors, but I think people will mix to the degree to which the law says they are allowed to.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Kit Yates

Kit Yates Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Kit_Yates_Maths

19 May
The @NAOorguk issued a report criticising the Government over its failure to prepare for the pandemic.
The report has received surprisingly little air time, so here is a thread summarising some of the findings.
TL;DR A lot of lessons to learn.
1/15
The report looks at UK's preparedness for "unforseen events and extreme shocks", not just pandemic preparedness.
It concludes
"The UK was not as prepared for the pandemic as it could have been, and government lacked detailed contingency plans to manage the unfolding situation."
While the report notes
"many examples of impressive national and local responses to the urgent need for healthcare and economic support"...

3/15
Read 15 tweets
19 May
I’ve heard lots of hot takes recently about how scientists are “basking in the limelight” and “don’t want the pandemic to end”.
None of the scientists I know are enjoying the pandemic.
Every single one of them would forgo every media appearance over the last 15 months for the pandemic not to have happened.
To suggest otherwise is cynical in the extreme.
My kids haven’t seen their granddad for 15 months.
Personally, I could do without giving up two hours of time with my kids on a Sunday afternoon preparing and 15 minutes recording all for 10 seconds of air time.
Read 4 tweets
14 May
An update on variants.

Remember the four tests for proceeding with the Roadmap?
Test 4 is "Our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern."
The rise in B1617.2 makes it debatable whether we are still meeting this fourth test.
A thread.
1/15
This data is from the COVID genomics UK consortium (COG) cogconsortium.uk
It shows cumulative sequenced cases of 3 variants of concern (VOCs) P1 ("Brazil"), B13151 ("South Africa") and B1617 ("India").
Cases of the Indian variant have increased significantly recently.
2/15
OK, but cumulative plots always make numbers look larger.
Well, this chart shows cases sequenced each week. "South Africa", "Brazil" and B1617.1 ("India 1") are all staying roughly constant.
B1617.2 ("India 2") looks to be growing exponentially.
3/15
Read 15 tweets
14 May
An update on vaccination in the UK.
Tl:DR - Vaccination rates are on the rise again.
2/3 of adult population have had a first dose, 1/3 a second dose.
Disparity in uptake still exists between most and least deprived areas.
1/9
Firstly, to the raw numbers.
The number of doses has picked up following the May Bank Holiday dip.
Still primarily second doses (orange) being given to keep pace with first doses (blue) 12 weeks earlier.
2/9
We have now given first doses to almost 2/3 of the adult population and second doses to over 1/3.
This is already having a tremendous impact with PHE suggesting they have saved over 12,000 lives in England alone.
reuters.com/world/uk/nearl…
3/9
Read 10 tweets
14 May
A short thread on the latest data on SCHOOLS and numbers of cases in different age brackets as we prepare to dispense with facemask on Monday.
TL;DR Cases in school age children are relatively flat, but the number of respiratory outbreaks recorded by PHE is increasing.
1/8
As usual, I will preface the thread by looking at numbers of lateral flow tests, which have remained relatively flat for the last few weeks.
This suggests any significant rises or falls we see in the case data probably reflect genuine rises or falls not changes in testing.
2/8
Cases in over 60s (brown) and 20-59s (blue) have continued to fall.
Cases in under 20s saw a slight rise when schools went back (possibly testing related) and have been flat or rising since then.
3/8
Read 9 tweets
14 May
A short thread on cases and positivity in the UK

Cases have been coming down in the UK since early January, but last week we bottomed out and this week we have seen small week on week increases (green) in cases, leading to a rise in the 7-day average (black).

1/10
Looking at the 4 nations of the UK, cases have fallen since last week in Northern Ireland, England (slightly) and Wales (marginally), but risen in Scotland.
Wales is down to last September levels, but other nations have a little way to go.

2/10
When we see a rise in cases it makes sense to check positivity (cases detected/tests).
Just looking at PCR test positivity, it seems to be flat across all nations.
Other good news is that positivity rates are low (well below 2% for all nations).

3/10
Read 11 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(