Thread by @sailorrooscout

If you’re confused about the newest PHE data and want to know if the vaccines are effective against Delta (B.1.617.2) the answer is YES, indeed they are. Do you need both doses? YES, indeed you do. By the way, they’re effective against infection AND severe disease. Let’s discuss.

As of June 7th:
•Infections: 68% unvaccinated, 6% fully vaccinated
•Hospital Admissions: 65% unvaccinated, 11% fully vaccinated
•Deaths: 55% unvaccinated, 29% fully vaccinated (remember we need to consider age, health conditions, etc.)

Looking at PHE data, during the period of time that Delta became prevalent, there has been NO increase in PCR-positive participants in the SIREN (NHS healthcare workers) cohort overall AND reinfections remain at very LOW numbers.

Overall, 59% of confirmed Delta cases are in unvaccinated individuals. About 2/3 of A&E visits and overnight admissions were from unvaccinated individuals while only about 6% of A&E visits were that were fully vaccinated individuals. See the difference here? Without the vaccines,

we would expect to see these numbers be a lot worse. So, are the vaccines less effective against Delta compared to some of the other variants? Yes, BUT they are STILL EFFECTIVE. Keep in mind that two doses of Pfizer’s vaccine is 88% effective against symptomatic infection alone.

Two doses are about 95% effective at preventing hospital admission with Delta (B.1.617.2), and one dose, about 70% (this here being in reference to Pfizer and AstraZeneca. We are still waiting on efficacy for two doses of AstraZeneca against symptomatic infection).

So, if you ask me, these vaccines are VERY effective exactly where they need to be, and that’s the message we should all be carrying forward. Cases are increasing, but it’s important to pay attention to hospitalizations and deaths as a metric, especially in populations with

higher vaccination numbers. If you’re interested in looking at the briefing for yourself you can find it here: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…. Please see my other posts as well. The conclusion? The vaccines WORK. Against all variants for that matter. Get yours when you can.

An important point to consider when looking at deaths in the report. These will be WITH COVID but not necessarily due TO COVID due to delays in hospitalizations data on reason for attendance (could be broken leg) and delays in death registration data. H/T: @kallmemeg- thank you!

Of the 33,206 Delta cases (28,917 with vaccination status). 1,785 were fully vaccinated and got infected (6.2% of total cases). Of these cases (1,785) 12 died (0.7%). Therefore the risk of getting infected with Delta and dying is much less than 0.7% for a fully vaccinated person.

Based on case data, VE estimates are as follows (that second dose matters):
•VE vs. infection: ~35% after 1 dose and ~80% after 2 doses
•VE vs. hospitalization/death: ~80% after 1 dose and >95% after 2 doses
H/T: @JamesWard73- Thank you! Be sure to read his entire thread!