[1/4] In light of the high number of cases reported, we present an update for several provinces which have an increase in cases: Gauteng has had a 12-90% increase in daily new cases, and high case incidence (105-192/100k pop).
[2/4] KwaZulu-Natal, in almost all districts, has had cases increase by 50%-187% compared to 7 days prior. Six districts have a MEDIUM risk incidence (12-24 cases/100k pop). There have been upticks in eThekwini, iLembe and uMgungundlovu.
[3/4] North West province has HIGH risk incidence of 37-87 cases/100k pop, and 2 districts have an increase in cases compared to the last 7 days: Bonjanala Platrium (47%) and Ngaka Modiri Molema (23%).
[4/4] Western Cape has HIGH risk incidence (31-61 cases/100k pop) and has a 27%-283% increase in cases compared to the last 7 days. There have been upticks in 3 districts: City of Cape Town, Garden Route and Overberg.
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SACMC released a report on potential 3rd wave scenarios: buff.ly/3aYKW0X. Monitoring trends in cases, eg. on sacmcepidemicexplorer.co.za, is the best indicator of when a 3rd wave is likely to begin. [1/5]
In summary: In the absence of new variant, the peak of the 3rd wave is expected lower than the 2nd wave, and time from initial increase in transmission to peak is on average 2-3 months. [2/5]
Across all ages, hospital admissions are expected lower than in 2nd wave. Admissions in each province depend on seroprevalence after 2nd wave, age distribution and prevalence of comorbidities, individual responses to increasing case numbers and to restrictions. [3/5]