Having this strong coupling sustained at a time of year where there is zero daylight, can allow the cold to intensify like we are seeing.
This is the anomaly for month so far and the 7 day forecast.
🔵 = colder than normal
🔴 = warmer than normal
A lot of people will have heard of the polar vortex.
The polar vortex in the southern hemisphere is much more powerful than the one we see in the north
It is a formidable beast at this time of year.
The main reasons for this intense cold:
- Strong positive Antarctic Oscillation (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctic…)
- Having a strong and well coupled stratospheric vortex
- This combination being sustained for many days during the depths of the long winter night.
But there are uncertainties. Interesting points by @khaustein
Even hotter than yesterday. This thread explains what is going on.
This part of the world is crazy. Northerly winds delivers cold and sub freezing while southerly winds can push exceptional heat (despite being in the Arctic). The range of extremes is enormous.
Check the trend from the last few days from this weather station...
Source: Ogimet
Arctic heat flashes like this are not new. The fact that we continually push the boundaries of what is possible and keep breaking records in the Arctic is all part of climate change.
The Arctic is warming much faster than the rest of Planet Earth.
Let's start with anomalies. An anomaly compares the actual temperature to what is considered average for the time of year.
🔴 = warmer than normal
🔵 = colder than normal
You can see that most of Europe is much colder than average while Russia bakes in incredible warmth.
The weather pattern is perfect for singling out parts of Finland and Russia as hotspots.
The jet stream has a southerly track and locks cool air over much of the continent. The jet stream then lifts north around a blocking high pressure in Russia.
Beauvais, France 🇫🇷 broke its monthly heat record on March 31 with a baking +24.8°C and then went on to beat its monthly cold record on April 6 with a chilling -6.9°C.
This violent season flip is brutal for flora and fauna.
A closer look et excellent travail de @KeraunosObs