One of the most imp emerging debates in US foreign policy at the moment is whether the US is in a competition of government systems w/ China, (or as Jake Sullivan put it on Monday, "a competition of models w/ autocracies"). I wrote about this on Wednesday. theatlantic.com/international/…
@jessicacweiss & @TomPepinsky have an important critique of President Biden's approach today, arguing that the administration should reverse itself on the competition of systems concept. foreignaffairs.com/articles/unite…
I recommend you read the whole piece but to me the key line is "a world safe for autocracy does not preclude a world safe for democracy." Jessica & Tom argue that China does not proactively seek to advance its governance model & is pragmatic in how it deals with other countries.
My response is that the flaw in this argument is it ignores negative externalities. China's actions have an effect even if it is intended or not-- on exporting the technologies of repression to Nigeria, on unconditional loans fueling corruption, & on attempts to censor criticism
That's what the Biden admin is concerned about. If we don't address externalities then the two sides of the debate are just talking past each other. The article also interestingly does not mention Australia where a lot of this is playing out. It is not that China is trying...
....to make Australia an autocracy but it is trying to shape and constrain its democracy and governance system. Australians are pushing back. One final point, Jessica and Tom argue that framing US-China relations in this way "creates a permissive environment for xenophobia"
But framing relations as a competition of governance systems can prevent & tackle xenophobia. This type of competition is not between nations and peoples as a more realist or Trumpian approach might put it, which is certainly a recipe for nationalism.
Finally, emphasizing democracy puts a huge onus on the US and other democracies to live up to our own values and principles, which include fighting racism and discrimination.
The question about how we conceptualize competition is an important & substantive debate that is now well underway. The Biden administration will have an opportunity to unpack its "competition of models" approach in its National Security Strategy, expected later this year.

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More from @thomaswright08

10 Jun
A lot of the same commentators who said nothing when President Trump directly and repeatedly criticized or undermined the UK government in office now seem horrified that President Biden reiterates long standing US policy about Northern Ireland and the Good Friday Agreement. 1/6
Biden is not intervening on behalf of the EU. He is simply making the point that the US supports the various agreements reached pertaining to NI, including the GFA and the protocol. 2/6
Worth noting that the Trump admin said something similar. The point is none of this is new and it is bipartisan. The Johnson government has also understood this for some time. independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi… 3/6
Read 6 tweets
9 Jun
I have a new piece for @TheAtlantic on how Joe Biden has a personal foreign policy doctrine a mere few months into his presidency: the United States is in a competition of government systems with China that it is at risk of losing. 1/6 theatlantic.com/international/…
Biden speaks about this all the time, in formal remarks and off the cuff. It is a marked departure from his statement in the campaign that China is not competition for us. 2/6
Some in his administration / party disagree and hope his views are not settled while others just don't grasp what he's saying. The result is that the administration as a whole is not yet converting his doctrine into a strategy but that may come in time. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
19 Feb
I might have missed it but it seems at @MunSecConf Biden did not address Macron’s top priority of strategic autonomy and Macron did not address Biden’s priority of competition with China.
Some other reactions. All the speeches were solid but unsurprising. All missed an opportunity too. Biden elaborating on what being back means but tbh that's a surprise to no one (support NATO, etc). He was strong on democracy and China.
He could have said something about strategic autonomy redefining the 2% concept, democratic backsliding, or the need for the EU & UK to work closely together but chose not to. Merkel offered a list of all the things Germany is doing or will do including on staying in Afghanistan
Read 7 tweets
10 Nov 20
I think it was very smart of Biden to call Boris Johnson so early today. Anxieties in Brexit circles about Biden have been unreasonably high. This is an easy way of signalling a commitment to work together, will be valued by No 10, & deprives Farage et al of a talking point.
As No 10 knows, it in no way signals a softening of Biden's position on the Good Friday Agreement. But that won't be an issue if the UK reaches a deal w/ the EU, which I expect it will. With that out of the way, there's lots of opportunity for cooperation on COP26, covid, G7 etc
The other point that has been lost is that US-UK relations have been pretty awful for the past 4 years. Trump rhetorically supported Brexit but he interfered in ongoing terrorist investigations, leveled wild accusations against UK intelligence, humiliated the UK ambassador...
Read 4 tweets
25 Mar 20
In talking with European officials over the past week, I have not found them to be particularly impressed with China's role. Of course they will issue thanks for shipments of aid but they know the CCP is at least partly responsible for letting this get out of control...1/4
...and they know that its refusal to be transparent will prohibit deep cooperation in the future. I have not found anyone in the EU or NATO who has said China is supplanting the US. Perhaps public opinion will weigh in behind China but there is no data on that yet. 2/4
Europeans aren't thinking about the US much. They didn't really care about the travel ban b/c no one was traveling. They resent Trump's criticism but expect it. Their takeaway is that the US, along with Brazil, is an example of the failure of populism to deal w/ this crisis 3/4
Read 4 tweets
24 Feb 20
Since everyone is playing pundit about the Democratic primary, here's my best guess if Bernie Sanders has an unassailable lead to win a plurality of delegates but is well short of a majority. This shld be clear on March 17, when 61% of pledged delegates will have been chosen. 1/4
There are 4 months between March 17 & the Dem convention on July 13-16. During this time Sanders will be subjected to intense scrutiny (from media, GOP), as Obama was in 2008. Obama weathered this, was seen to have responded effectively, & his poll numbers stayed strong. 2/4
The attacks on Sanders are likely to be much more severe. If he also weathers the storm, he'll be in a strong position to claim the nomination in Milwaukee. However, if the attacks hurt him, esp in the polling match up v Trump, then anything could happen at the convention. 3/4
Read 4 tweets

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