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10 Nov, 4 tweets, 1 min read
I think it was very smart of Biden to call Boris Johnson so early today. Anxieties in Brexit circles about Biden have been unreasonably high. This is an easy way of signalling a commitment to work together, will be valued by No 10, & deprives Farage et al of a talking point.
As No 10 knows, it in no way signals a softening of Biden's position on the Good Friday Agreement. But that won't be an issue if the UK reaches a deal w/ the EU, which I expect it will. With that out of the way, there's lots of opportunity for cooperation on COP26, covid, G7 etc
The other point that has been lost is that US-UK relations have been pretty awful for the past 4 years. Trump rhetorically supported Brexit but he interfered in ongoing terrorist investigations, leveled wild accusations against UK intelligence, humiliated the UK ambassador...
...publicly opposed PM May's Brexit policy, and his Sec of State accused Johnson's govt of "siding with the Ayatollahs". It has been an abusive relationship, not a special one. So the alliance needs to be repaired and I expect Biden to do so.

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More from @thomaswright08

Tom Wright Profile picture
25 Mar
In talking with European officials over the past week, I have not found them to be particularly impressed with China's role. Of course they will issue thanks for shipments of aid but they know the CCP is at least partly responsible for letting this get out of control...1/4
...and they know that its refusal to be transparent will prohibit deep cooperation in the future. I have not found anyone in the EU or NATO who has said China is supplanting the US. Perhaps public opinion will weigh in behind China but there is no data on that yet. 2/4
Europeans aren't thinking about the US much. They didn't really care about the travel ban b/c no one was traveling. They resent Trump's criticism but expect it. Their takeaway is that the US, along with Brazil, is an example of the failure of populism to deal w/ this crisis 3/4
Read 4 tweets
Tom Wright Profile picture
24 Feb
Since everyone is playing pundit about the Democratic primary, here's my best guess if Bernie Sanders has an unassailable lead to win a plurality of delegates but is well short of a majority. This shld be clear on March 17, when 61% of pledged delegates will have been chosen. 1/4
There are 4 months between March 17 & the Dem convention on July 13-16. During this time Sanders will be subjected to intense scrutiny (from media, GOP), as Obama was in 2008. Obama weathered this, was seen to have responded effectively, & his poll numbers stayed strong. 2/4
The attacks on Sanders are likely to be much more severe. If he also weathers the storm, he'll be in a strong position to claim the nomination in Milwaukee. However, if the attacks hurt him, esp in the polling match up v Trump, then anything could happen at the convention. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
Tom Wright Profile picture
20 Feb
Like anyone who watched, I thought Warren was ferocious and impressive last night but I also thought she fundamentally failed to do what she needed to do. She has been struggling in the polls because Sanders has taken more of the progressive market share of the vote. 1/8
Warren never had a plan for dealing with Sanders. She assumed he would eventually fall in the polls and she would scoop up his supporters. She had toyed with drawing contrasts in the summer of 2018 (when she said she was a capitalist, not a socialist). 2/8
This was a great frame. She could have embraced it, avoided M4A and be positioned now as an acceptable more electable compromise to Sanders. Instead, she abandoned this frame once the campaign started and never allowed any gap between her and Sanders. 3/8
Read 8 tweets
Tom Wright Profile picture
20 Jan
Reading through the transcripts of the NYT editorial board interviews w/ the presidential candidates. Made it through the top five. Some thoughts. The questioning of Buttigieg is much tougher and more hostile than the others. Almost an obsessive focus on McKinsey. 1/6
The foreign policy sections are disappointing. Weird questions-- most candidates are asked about nuclear missiles in Turkey which is important but as one of only 3 Qs? Follow up weak -- should have pressed Sanders on how to reconcile his impulses on China. 2/6
Biden gave a strange answer on Hong Kong, saying US shld go to the UN. Warren's answer on NATO was v odd- in essence deemphasis efforts to increase their capability & focus on defense cost sharing agreements. Bizarrely, the NYT then cited it as a reason why they endorsed her. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
Tom Wright Profile picture
10 Sep 19
A thread on John Bolton. This was inevitable. For many months Trump wanted to pivot to striking deals w/ America's enemies-- Taliban, Iran, DPRK, even Russia-- in the run up to the election. Pompeo was willing to accept this to shape it. Bolton was not & sought to sabotage it 1/9
Bolton survived the summer b/c it was the summer-- not much happening. But he was unlikely to survive long into the fall. We did not know how he wld leave-- some thought he wld cling on to run interference & Trump dislikes personal confrontation-- but it was unsustainable 2/9
How it happened is of great consequence. While everyone was waiting for Jim Mattis to speak out, Bolton has actually walked through that door. His tweet disputing Trump's account and his active outreach to media today suggest he will not take this lying down. 3/9
Read 9 tweets
Tom Wright Profile picture
16 May 19
War with Iran is worryingly possible but I think Trump firing Bolton is more probable.
Trump has always distrusted Bolton on military intervention. Him behaving was a condition of his hire. Bolton overstepped early on w/ his Libya model comment on North Korea and was almost pushed out then. After a spell in the cold he was allowed back. 2/7
Trump repeatedly talks about Bolton as a hawk. He told one G7 leader point blank: “Bolton wants a war with Iran; I do not”. He made fun of Bolton wanting to invade everywhere in front of another leader. This is now coming to a head. 3/7
Read 7 tweets

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