Eroom's Law:

Since 1950s, for every $1B spent on pharmaceutical R&D, the # of drugs that make it market halving every 9 yrs! (The opposite of Moore's Law)

@StevenJSpear & I speculate that major cause is the # of disciplines of which integrated problem solving must occur!
We speculate this aspect of Eroom's Law is what causes:

- the before vs. after state in Team of Teams
- waterfall -> DevOps

I think we even saw this happen in the COVID vaccinations (those that get 100% into people's arms vs 30%)

...and so many more domains!
Here are examples of where we think integrated problems solving was done superbly, resulting in amazing outcomes, vs those that were done poorly, resulting in disastrous outcomes.

cc @MatthewEGunter @StevenJSpear
cc @randyshoup Thanks for all those amazing links, by the way!!!
Here's some amazing links on why/how COVID vaccines were released so quickly:

nature.com/articles/d4158…

- leveraged previous research
- parallelized all testing phases (!!)
- faster regulatory approval process
Amazing graphs from that Nature article — 

- mid-Jan: COVID genome released
- late-Jan: preclinical studies begin (!!!)
- Apr/May: Phase I/II clinical trials begin
uab.edu/news/youcanuse…

- 30 years of mRNA research
- Moderna and Biontech specialization in mRNA
- Flu and HIV virus sequencing
- NIH vaccine evaluation infrastructure investments
- US government guarantees purchases
- Human study volunteers

h/t @randyshoup
Holy cow. "From genetic sequence of a pathogen, researchers can quickly pull out a potential antigen-encoding segment... then synthesize the corresponding RNA. Moderna managed this within 4 days of receiving the SARS-CoV-2 genome sequence."

nature.com/articles/d4158…
businessinsider.com/moderna-design…

Moderna vaccine candidate took 2 days to create.

“No virus had to be cultivated in labs. That’s why the companies were able to progress in record time… By Feb 24, Moderna had shipped its first vaccine batches to NIH scientists in Bethesda"
..
"....and researchers administered the first dose on March 16 in Seattle, Washington. That launched the first clinical trial of any coronavirus vaccine.”

Wow!!!

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More from @RealGeneKim

12 Jun
Taking notes from this great short video on USAF Colonel John Boyd, his Energy Maneuverability theory, OODA loops, and more.



I've read the awesome book "Boyd: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War" decades ago, but...

amazon.com/Boyd-Fighter-P…
...but I'm trying to refresh my memory on his teachings, and view it through the lens of how it informs how we create and exploit optionality, maybe against an adversary, but also on how one creates and operates systems.

(From Boyd to Steve Blank/Eric Ries & Dr. Carliss Baldwin)
But before I re-read the books on Boyd, I wanted to get a high-level survey of his material, and had so much fun watching this video — which included footage of multiplayer dogfight sims!

On Boyd: After Korean War, he became an instructor, he became known as "40 Second Boyd"
Read 33 tweets
10 Jun
In this episode, Dr @StevenJSpear and I learn about how human creativity was unleashed to enable vaccinating 8K people/day, up from 2K/day in Jan, through relentless improvement.

And we explore how the lessons learned may inform how we can improve the overall healthcare system!
@StevenJSpear The things I learned from Trent Green, visiting the mass vaccination site here in Portland, or this interview were…

…some of the most hopeful & inspiring I’ve heard in years.

He describes how we can win this race to vaccinate everyone on planet, in shortest possible time.
@StevenJSpear Some pics from my amazing 3 hr visit to Portland Convention Center, run by our 4 regional health systems:

More pics to come, after I learn which I can post w/o violating patient HIPAA rules.

Imagine this vast 116K sq ft area where 1300+ people are vaccinated per hour, every day ImageImage
Read 6 tweets
20 Feb
Many of you have seen the famous Westrum Organizational Typology model, so prominently featured in State of DevOps Research, Accelerate, DevOps Handbook, etc.

This model was created Dr. Ron Westrum, a widely-cited sociologist who studied the impact of culture on safety
Thanks to Dr. @nicolefv, I was able to interview him for an upcoming episode of the Idealcast! 🤯

It was a very heady experience, and while preparing to interview him, I was startled to discover how much work he's done in healthcare, aviation, spaceflight, but also innovation.
@nicolefv I've read 4+ of his papers, so I thought I was familiar with his work. (Here's one paper: researchgate.net/publication/26…)

I was startled to learn he has also studied in depth what enables innovation. He wrote a wonderful book "Sidewinder: Creative Missile Development at China Lake"
Read 54 tweets
19 Feb
I loved this podcast: @mik_kersten interviews Dr. @gail_murphy, discussing their decades-long research on dev productivity.

Favorite phrase: “better frame of dev productivity (and knowledge work) is on how we make decisions.”

How utterly wonderful!!

overcast.fm/+XEReQPegs
@mik_kersten @gail_murphy It was a startling thing to hear, as I was talking with @girba, and he mentioned the same thing.

What are the best papers that describe the nature of decision making, and how might inform great decision making (frequent, fast feedback, high levels of exploration, safe?)

vs…
@mik_kersten @gail_murphy …vs environments not conducive to great decisions (slow feedback, infrequent, dangerous, tightly coupled and highly interdependent, no one able to make decisions independently)

I feel like I can viscerally describe from experience what both those extremes feel like…
Read 4 tweets
22 Dec 18
Wow, a super interesting question! Wasn’t as easy to answer quickly as I thought it would be!

TL;DR: My notes almost always go into Trello first, where I triage and organize them. I actually wrote a (Clojure) app to help manage these cards. Then all into @ScrivenerApp.. 1/N
@ScrivenerApp Almost all my notes start as Trello cards first: I use Zapier to put all starred tweets in there, I send myself emails that get turned into cards.

Each book often has one board, with lists for each broach category. I wrote app to enable moving cards w/1 keystroke, like vi.

2/N
@ScrivenerApp Last two books have had 800-1000 Trello cards, which were shuffled into 10-20 lists.

But the hard work happens in @ScrivenerApp, which is the part I think you’re talking about. Good ideas get copied into there, where they get developed or discarded.

Scrivener is awesome. 3/N
Read 9 tweets

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