Many of us know that the higher the share price goes, the higher the collateral would be needed from short sellers to maintain their positions.
(Part 2) When a short seller hasn't covered their positions when their shorts were at 10$, their losses are absurd on top of covering interests.
(Part 3) That's why short selling is a high risk / high reward alternative in the market - the potential of infinite downside if there's a losing bet.
(Part 4) If hedgies double down on their shorts at higher prices, their losses are "limited" but they kill their own capital as it take spaces to form a collateral to maintain these new shorts.
(Part 5) Let's assume the latest #Ortex data for the SI to be 102.30M and short sellers have all shorted at 10$ and they have collected a premium of $1.023B.
This math excludes institutions reloading their shorts at higher prices and "hedging against their bets".
(Part 6) Up to now, short sellers' portfolios have collectively lost roughly $4B.
As per the new rulings of the DTCC, liquidity requirements have increased to 40% for clearing members meaning a collateral of 40% is needed for that short volume.
So 40% out of $4B is $1.6B needed
(Part 7) From memory, let's assume Citadel would be the only hedgie to short $AMC.
From memory, Citadel has a capital requirement of 8% - a bit more than $30B in asset management - meaning they need roughly $2.4B to maintain their assets in place.
(Part 8) Henceforth, Citadel wouldn't allow to burn and exceed $2.4B for their short account at the risk of being pursued by market regulators and credit collectors.
(Part 9) Assuming Citadel would be the only hedgie to short $AMC with the excluding criteria mentioned above.
40% collateral for short volume x 59$ (share price) x 102.30M short interest = $2.414B
(Part 10) Citadel would go bust at 59$/share on $AMC because they cannot exceed $2.4B of capital unless they would have to alternative holdings to bolster their liquidity.
(Part 11) We know this math is inaccurate because short sellers can hedge against their bets and they are sitting on a time bomb as they run out of capital due to interest payments and securing collateral. They are literally making few dollars, if not pennies of profits on this.
(Part 12) Once $AMC reaches a certain average share price that would basically overwhelm capital requirement of these bad institutions.
It is a rocket departure for Galaxy Andromeda.
Typo: "unless they would have to liquidate alternative holdings"
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Let's talk about what an investment bank does. It's gonna lay out some foundations and make some pieces clearer on what happened recently with highly shorted securities with the issuance of shares including wealth creation.
(Part 2) Investment banking does three primary functions: underwriting securities, IPO & seasonal offering.
A company wants to issue shares. You need someone to vouch for you to buy a piece of your company. In some way, it's a reputation kind of thing.
This is underwriting.
(Part 3) The investment bank has contacts among people to make offerings worthwhile and they manage this issuance to make sure a company grows with liquidity.
(Part 1) So I've been investigating the bond market and lots of smart money from institutions are betting against it. $HYG is one of those prime examples, being a high-yield corporate bond, representing low-par companies.
(Part 2) These institutions betting against these bonds are Citadel, Blackrock, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Jane Street, Goldman Sachs, Susquehanna, Bank of Montreal, Barclays, UBS Group, and more!
(Part 3) How does this affect the squeeze? Unfortunately, it is just kicking the can down the road as the bearish market is eventually inevitable but it's gonna help somewhat our cause.
I somehow used the equity line of $30B instead of $407.641B in AUM as of 03/31/2021 for Citadel. I don't want to use Fintel as they often do mistakes on recent filings.
(Part 2) Even I do mistakes - that's why I hire people to do these calculations and peer-review data (STUPID CAT!)
So Citadel having a 8% capital requirement meaning $32.61B to maintain their assets in place.
(Part 3)
40% short volume x 102.30M short interest x 800$ (share price) = $32.736B
Meaning if Citadel would be the only hedgie to short $AMC, if they are not kicking the can down the road by reloading their shorts, hedging against their bets.
Disclaimer: Anything under this thread is not financial advice. All of this is based on my professional experience and content here are for educational purposes.
(Part 2) The squeeze is imminent. Technical analysis doesn't work. Prediction models are haywire and inaccurate. Fundamentals are out of the window. Ortex and S3 Partners aren't reliable.
(Part 3) Lately, I've read talks about the 2nd book system. It is real. The 1st book is held by the company registering transactions between a buyer and a seller. The 2nd book is for validation of such transactions between these two parties through a clearing house.
(Part 1) I don't understand this trend of holdings being held/delayed by a clearing house / market-maker.
The truth is they have been doing this for quite some time.
(Part 2) Let's go back to the basics: retail investors submit their orders through their brokerage services at market prices which take within two business days to settle through a market maker / clearing corporation.
(Part 3) Some of the delays are bound with the amount of buyers and sellers based on supply and demand - but also with the amount of wealth being exchanged. If it's a huge order, that might take some time to be fulfilled completely based on existing partial offers.
(Part 1) Anatomy of the bearish market (in a nutshell)
We're supposedly at the end of the bullish market (RED) with inflated stocks with margin, credit, and debt. Some stocks will undoubtedly melt-up (skyrocket) [this year - highly shorted securities are current plays]
(Part 2) Eventually, once the bearish market in in our doorstep - In order to preserve wealth, investors would be buying gold as fiat currency will lose value for gold to pick up in value. They are inversely proportional.
Nothing is gained. Nothing is lost. All is transformed.
(Part 3) On the first step of the bearish market (PINK), investors would be looking out for the true dip of the stock market / real estate and crypto.
Nobody knows when the market will reach the very bottom so be prepared to average down on your holdings.