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12 Jun, 8 tweets, 1 min read
(Part 1) So I've been investigating the bond market and lots of smart money from institutions are betting against it. $HYG is one of those prime examples, being a high-yield corporate bond, representing low-par companies.
(Part 2) These institutions betting against these bonds are Citadel, Blackrock, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Jane Street, Goldman Sachs, Susquehanna, Bank of Montreal, Barclays, UBS Group, and more!
(Part 3) How does this affect the squeeze? Unfortunately, it is just kicking the can down the road as the bearish market is eventually inevitable but it's gonna help somewhat our cause.
(Part 4) When a bond market is expected to have a massive sell off, this makes the dollar stronger.

When fiat value increases, gold loses value INCLUDING bitcoin.

Are BTC institutional investors overleveraged? 100%
(Part 5) Institutions shorting bonds and indexes gain profits while those going long will lose cash.

Meaning short sellers currently going on with $AMC - $GME are hedging their bets using the bond market (for the short term).
(Part 6) When you short an entire economy, you eventually remove liquidity from short sellers in the long term. Hold that thought.

When the dollar gets stronger, people run from stocks as people on margin cannot uphold their upkeeps on their positions.
(Part 7) Eventually right after the crash occurs, the FED will start printing to "save the economy" making inflation to rise - making gold and bitcoin to rise again with the rebound.

Before inflation kicks in, people will have a small window to purchase anything on the dip.
(Part 8) Brace yourselves! It's gonna be a wild ride with our tendies!

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More from @CringleKitten

CringleKitten Profile picture
13 Jun
(Part 1) The inner workings of an investment bank

Let's talk about what an investment bank does. It's gonna lay out some foundations and make some pieces clearer on what happened recently with highly shorted securities with the issuance of shares including wealth creation.
(Part 2) Investment banking does three primary functions: underwriting securities, IPO & seasonal offering.

A company wants to issue shares. You need someone to vouch for you to buy a piece of your company. In some way, it's a reputation kind of thing.

This is underwriting.
(Part 3) The investment bank has contacts among people to make offerings worthwhile and they manage this issuance to make sure a company grows with liquidity.
Read 8 tweets
CringleKitten Profile picture
12 Jun
(Part 1) ERRATUM in said recent Part 12.

I somehow used the equity line of $30B instead of $407.641B in AUM as of 03/31/2021 for Citadel. I don't want to use Fintel as they often do mistakes on recent filings.
(Part 2) Even I do mistakes - that's why I hire people to do these calculations and peer-review data (STUPID CAT!)

So Citadel having a 8% capital requirement meaning $32.61B to maintain their assets in place.
(Part 3)

40% short volume x 102.30M short interest x 800$ (share price) = $32.736B

Meaning if Citadel would be the only hedgie to short $AMC, if they are not kicking the can down the road by reloading their shorts, hedging against their bets.

They would go bust at 800$/share.
Read 4 tweets
CringleKitten Profile picture
12 Jun
(Part 1) Here's another cat snippet for $AMC

So we are in the beginning of the end.

Many of us know that the higher the share price goes, the higher the collateral would be needed from short sellers to maintain their positions.
(Part 2) When a short seller hasn't covered their positions when their shorts were at 10$, their losses are absurd on top of covering interests.
(Part 3) That's why short selling is a high risk / high reward alternative in the market - the potential of infinite downside if there's a losing bet.
Read 13 tweets
CringleKitten Profile picture
10 Jun
(Part 1) Let's explore some things. $AMC

Disclaimer: Anything under this thread is not financial advice. All of this is based on my professional experience and content here are for educational purposes.
(Part 2) The squeeze is imminent. Technical analysis doesn't work. Prediction models are haywire and inaccurate. Fundamentals are out of the window. Ortex and S3 Partners aren't reliable.
(Part 3) Lately, I've read talks about the 2nd book system. It is real. The 1st book is held by the company registering transactions between a buyer and a seller. The 2nd book is for validation of such transactions between these two parties through a clearing house.
Read 18 tweets
CringleKitten Profile picture
10 Jun
(Part 1) I don't understand this trend of holdings being held/delayed by a clearing house / market-maker.

The truth is they have been doing this for quite some time.
(Part 2) Let's go back to the basics: retail investors submit their orders through their brokerage services at market prices which take within two business days to settle through a market maker / clearing corporation.
(Part 3) Some of the delays are bound with the amount of buyers and sellers based on supply and demand - but also with the amount of wealth being exchanged. If it's a huge order, that might take some time to be fulfilled completely based on existing partial offers.
Read 13 tweets
CringleKitten Profile picture
9 Jun
(Part 1) Anatomy of the bearish market (in a nutshell)

We're supposedly at the end of the bullish market (RED) with inflated stocks with margin, credit, and debt. Some stocks will undoubtedly melt-up (skyrocket) [this year - highly shorted securities are current plays]
(Part 2) Eventually, once the bearish market in in our doorstep - In order to preserve wealth, investors would be buying gold as fiat currency will lose value for gold to pick up in value. They are inversely proportional.

Nothing is gained. Nothing is lost. All is transformed.
(Part 3) On the first step of the bearish market (PINK), investors would be looking out for the true dip of the stock market / real estate and crypto.

Nobody knows when the market will reach the very bottom so be prepared to average down on your holdings.
Read 10 tweets

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