Thread by @MollyMcKew

As Lukashenko cracks down, Lithuania steps up to help the Belarusian opposition — and finds itself the target of new hybrid measures

This includes “irregular migration” — aka Belarus state-backed human trafficking into Europe

Via @RenewGreatPower /1

greatpower.us/p/belarus-shar…

“Lukashenko must think this is the way Europe will stop putting pressure on his murderous regime or helping the opposition,” Lithuanian FM @GLandsbergis tells @RenewGreatPower. “Yes, we might need assistance… that won’t make us back down from defending the right course.” /2

Over the past few weeks, hundreds of migrants, primarily from Iraq, have crossed the border from Belarus into Lithuania. Lithuania’s government says this is a targeted campaign against Lithuania using state-backed human trafficking schemes sponsored by Belarusian authorities. /3

Lithuania played an active leadership role organizing the response to Lukashenko’s latest aggression — the hijacking of a passenger flight in order to arrest Belarusian activist/journalist Roman Protasevich.

The weaponized migration seems to be retaliation for their efforts./4

Iraqis & some Syrians arrive in Minsk on flights from Istanbul/Baghdad. Some flights are operated by a company allegedly controlled by Lukashenko. Migrants receive visas & wait in Minsk until they are aided across the border to Lithuania by the Belarusian border guard. /5

Lithuania’s border guards have released video showing their Belarusian counterparts erasing the footprints of the migrants at the crossing points. /6

In the manipulation of migrant flows, Lukashenko can draw on examples from Moscow.

In 2015, Russian bombing campaigns in Syria heavily targeted civilian areas, driving a flood of refugees into Europe. This weaponized migration fueled a political crisis within the EU. /7

Russia also helped facilitate the movement of Islamic fighters into Syria and Iraq, and it has facilitated routes for migrants from Africa and elsewhere to Europe across Russia. /8

Belarus has sharpened & adapted this Russian tactic of weaponized migration, facilitating human trafficking through Belarus to use weaponized migrant flows to exact a political and security price from Lithuania, which offers significant support to the Belarusian opposition. /9

“It is obvious that a hybrid war is being waged against Lithuania, and illegal migration flows are one of the means,” says Lithuania’s Interior Minister. /10

Lithuania is absorbing a lot of the heat from Minsk, and they deserve more support from the US and others as they do so.

Read more:  /11 greatpower.us/p/belarus-shar…