In the first scenario, which most scientists espouse, we can't rule out the possibility that COVID-19 came from a lab, but it's the least likely explanation by a fair bit
Still needs looking in to!
In the second scenario, people have aggregated bizarre and nonsensical arguments into an impenetrable morass of vague thinking that supposedly means something - this is why I say it's like a conspiracy theory
And much of the argument for a lab leak really does resemble a conspiracy theory, with people saying that Chinese researchers fabricated decades of data and then deleted records and lied to the WHO, while the government covered for them
Possible, perhaps, but still...
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2/n The paper is here. The authors and ethics approval are essentially identical, and the text is very similar. There are, however, some really odd differences between the publication and preprint academic.oup.com/jcem/advance-a…
3/n First off, the published version doesn't mention that this study was preprinted then retracted as far as I can tell
Fascinating thread. It's wrong in numerous ways - the methodology is pretty trivially incorrect, many of the statements are wrong based even on a quick google
But it's face-plausible so people jump on board. Very interesting
Taking one basic error in the thread as an example, the tables only work if you assume that the proportions in each age group are identical across these countries, which is very trivially wrong
Another basic mistake - the US had patchy lockdowns that weren't all in place for most of the year, so it's boringly incorrect to compare to Sweden in this way
The simple fact is that our current system for generating and correcting evidence has not handled the incredibly tight timeframes of Covid in any reasonable way
I think this story about a paper in Scientific Reports exemplifies the issue
The authors and editors did everything RIGHT as far as traditional academia goes. And yet, it was a massive failure in many ways
Study: cross-sectional survey-based investigation of an online sample of healthcare workers shows some interesting associations
The headlines are wildly silly 1/n
2/n The study is here, and fun for a quick read. Basically, a group of researchers surveyed healthcare workers in July-Sept 2020 and asked them stuff about their diet and COVID nutrition.bmj.com/content/early/…
3/n This appears to be the 3rd or 4th study published from that survey. The authors basically found that, after controlling for a couple of confounders, there was an association between self-reported diet and risk of severe COVID-19
If you want to consider the travesty of medical advice vs evidence during COVID-19, vitamin D is an amazing example
100s of millions of people have self-medicated/been treated with vit D for COVID. The evidence base is trash
A living Cochrane systematic review last updated May 2021 gives you an idea of this - as of 14 months into the global pandemic, there are 3 published RCTs on vitamin D
And look, it's never been tremendously likely that vitamin D was the key ingredient to banishing COVID-19, but it is wild that so many people have taken it for the disease and we still don't even know if there are harms to that or not
People on Tiktok are drinking lettuce water because of a rumour it helps you sleep
This is all apparently based on a 2013 study that looked at lettuce leaf/seed extracts IN MICE @justsaysinmice
Now, I should say that the original rumour that started on Tiktok may not be entirely due to this study. The Pedestrian article says that this is the research backing up the claim, but there's no evidence that's true
Nevertheless, this study is BRILLIANT:
- extracted substances from lettuce leaf/seeds
- gave extract to mice
- sedated mice
- measured sleep times (slight difference)