Emissions must fall 60% in 9 years & the IEA says zero new oil & gas projects for a hope of even ‘net’ zero. So it would be reasonable to assume laws are being passed to end exploration right? In fact, the world is on an oil & gas binge. A shocking, terrifying, revolutionary 🧵
US: Drilling in Alaska; record offshore oil and gas exploration, extracting 17m barrels a day, $323bn to be spent in 4 years (expenditure on climate under Biden’s infrastructure plan is $36bn)
China: 19 new projects in 2021, increasing production 4% to record 545-555 million barrels of oil equivalent, targeting 640-650 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2023
Nigeria: 100 new oil and gas sites coming into production between 2021 and 2024, one site alone producing 650,000 barrels every day, starting next year
Kazakhstan: new $850m plant to process oil from the Kashagan oil field which is targeting 500,000 barrels a day in 2027, up from 380,000 barrels a day now
There are more. So many more. The penny is going to have to drop sooner or later. Forget the Paris agreement, forget COP 26. There is no plan for zero emissions and there never has been
India: *647* new oil and gas projects between 2021 and 2025, $100bn+ spend
correction: new discovery adds 2.2bn overall barrels (2.2bn a day would be.....very bad)
worth noting that the same IEA that says no new oil and gas project can begin to achieve net zero is the same IEA that 2 days ago said producers must "open the taps" to satisfy oil demand that in 2022 will be at an all time high
Some have interpreted this thread to say "we are doomed." No, we are not. Radical, emergency, revolutionary action can limit the damage and maintain a decent future. But that will not happen with our current political-economic structures. How do we know? We've tried, it failed
Some more to add to the thread today. annual record of 16 wells to be drilled offshore Guyana this year
And back to the US and Canada. 603 oil and gas projects scheduled to begin in the next 3.5 years, 420 in the US, the rest in Canada. 80% are *new* builds.
In 1950 a period in planetary history unlike any other began.
You know about CO2 increase.
But CO2 was just one indicator among many others that things were - are - going very wrong.
Scientists have dubbed this The Great Acceleration.
A thread (with charts) 1/
First, CO2.
Factories, cars, trucks, ships and forest destruction have caused a near 40% increase in CO2 since 1950, taking the Earth above 400 parts per million for the first time in 4 million years.
2/
Second, methane.
Fossil fuels, agriculture, industrial processes and some natural feedbacks (including release from wetlands and permafrost) have caused a 70% increase in methane levels since 1950. The heat trapping impact of methane is *25 times* greater than CO2.