from my experience AND the overwhelming data, the BEST intraday long setups almost ALWAYS happen after 10am. that's why if im short a stock and it's still consolidating above VWAP after 10am, + beating its volume forecast for that time, i close the trade immediately or downsize.
that's b/c a stock with significantly more supply than demand should be getting SLAUGHTERED and near its LOD by 10am. with all the bulls from the open trapped and providing additional supply on every pop as bagholders. if they're not trapped, then guess who is.
Remember, most shortsellers trade MASSIVE size, and when u're on that kind of size u cant just "stop out" without massive slippage. ESPECIALLY after 10am where liquidity on the offer dries up faster than 90yr old pussy. This creates a domino effect once the stock starts to uptick
if u dont believe me, ask any other shortseller (who trades enough size ofcourse) how hard it is to close out a huge short position when the stock is near its highs post 10am. ESPECIALLY if it's a lowfloat. the offers feel like snowflakes. even a tiny partial cover causes upticks
combine that with idiot stock pumping chat rooms who are ready to chase every HOD breakout, and u have urself a massive supply/demand imbalance (everyone chasing the offer, but not enough liquidity to fill everyone's orders. so the stock keeps ripping). so bulls, take notes.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
the easiest way to find big supply/demand imbalances is to simply look for scenarios where a big investor or group of investors are stuck with LARGE (ideally losing) positions that they cannot easily close out.
u have to understand that not everyone trades with 100 or 1K shares like most newbies. So not everyone can get in and out of trades easily. so when a LARGE trader (or group of traders) is stuck, their #1 goal is no longer making money, it's finding liquidity to get out.
So this creates a scenario where the moment they get liquidity (ideally near their breakeven price), they'll take it without question. The more of them are stuck, the more they'll clog up the bid or ask (depending on if it's a bear or bull), creating an imbalance.
I have too many tweets on this. AVOID large losses at all costs. Large losses dont just set u back financially, they set u back MENTALLY. one single large loss not only erases days of hardwork, but it also fucks up ur psyche so much that it ALSO hurts your FUTURE trades.
It puts u in the "i gotta make it back" mentality, so u'll refuse to take profits on working trades even if u get an exit signal, b/c u'll compare the unrealized win to that BIG loss & think "that's not enough, i need to make more". Then u'll overstay & turn that win into a loss.
This will then lead to MORE frustration.. hurting your psyche even more. U'll then start forcing stupid trades, doubling size to try to make the loss back quicker etc, and since u're so mentally unstable, the next losses u take will be even bigger (since u're on double size)
Catching up on DMs before calling it a day, and this message right here warms my cunty heart ❤. I get happy whenever things start to "click" for traders. For those who work hard daily to refine their crafts, u know what i mean: those "aha" moments are like pure cocaine.
ppl dont suffer b/c they have too little information, they suffer b/c they have too much. the key is to keep filtering out the noise. keep applying the pareto principle aka the 80/20 rule over and over on every aspect of ur trading ( Search my tweets on that for more details).
80% of ur outputs come from 20% of ur inputs. FOCUS on those.
80% of ur profits come from 20% of ur trades, so FOCUS on those setups, ignore the rest.
80% of ur losses come from 20% of ur bad habits. so FOCUS on eliminating those habits first, worry about the other ones later.
that dreaded day has come. as u all know i always teach my daughter (now 8yrs old) stuff in addition to whatever she learns at school, to keep her curious & always learning. So far I taught her stuff ranging from chemistry, physics, math, neuroscience, economics, biology etc, and
most recently, evolution. But of course to teach her evolution, I had to explain mutations & that a baby gets half his genes frm his mom & the other half frm dad etc. and we moved on. To my horror, a whole week after digesting all that info, she comes to me out of nowhere & asks:
"but papa, the baby grows in the mom's belly, so im guessing that's how it gets her genes. But how does it get the dad's genes??"
I, am.. fucked!!
Now i gotta come up with a lie that makes sense b/c i obviously cant tell her that i gave her my genes by clapping her mom's cheeks
Like i said, the best way to learn options is to learn ONE key term at a time. 1 day per term. I never read a single option book. they have WAYY too much noise & are boring as shit. information overload. Im not joking when I say that u can learn all the basics in less than 7 days
Also u learn by DOING, not reading or hearing. So once u learn the basics, open a shitty small account to practice with. Fund it with "throw away money" (like $1K) and just practice each week. I dont care if u have to risk $25 to make $75 or $50 to make $150. Get ur feet wet
As a beginner u only need to learn 2 things:
✅how to buy naked calls & puts
✅how to buy call debit spreads & put debit spreads
Example this friday's $AAPL 122/123 put debit spread only costs $20 per contract. if $AAPL closes under 122 this fri u'll make $80. that's a 4:1 RR.
If u think a stock is gonna go up (or down) FAST (emphasis on fast), 100% of the time u'll always make more trading the options instead of the stock. while risking less at the same time.
if u're unsure about how fast the move will happen, trading the stock is better.
u think it'll go up 3% TODAY, & u only want to invest & lose $1K
Trading the stock u'll only make $30 profit on ur $1K.
Trading the option (say 5 days exp, ATM), u'll make at LEAST $600, & that's not even including gamma or theta
god forbid u buy a closer to expiration option. that $1K nets u at LEAST +$1400 profit compared to the $30 profit if u traded the stock. And in both scenarios, ur max investment & max loss was only $1K.
So as u can see, Options are ridiculously lucrative if ur timing is good.