Chris Prener Profile picture
Jun 14, 2021 8 tweets 6 min read Read on X
My #Missouri #COVID19 website has been fully updated for Sunday, 6/13 - slu-opengis.github.io/covid_daily_vi…. As a reminder, I'm doing slightly more frequent threads again since 7-day averages are growing again.

The 7-day averages statewide and “outstate” crept up a bit again yesterday. 1/8 ImageImageImageImage
The general areas of concern remain the same - Northern MO and parts of Southwest MO, but the number of counties with concerning trends has grown over the past few days in SW MO in particular. 2/8 Image
In Northern MO, Putnam County’s superlative rates have fallen sharply, as have rates in Linn and Livingston counties. Linn’s rate remains no. 2 nationwide for counties with more than 10,000 residents. 3/8 ImageImageImage
In the Springfield area, the list of counties with concerning trends continues to grow, despite a drop in Polk’s 7-day average. Christian, Greene, Taney, and Webster have all increased significantly over the past few days. 4/8 ImageImage
Just to the northeast around the Lake of the Ozarks, a similar pattern on increasing 7-day averages is emerging (just a few days behind) in Camden, Laclede, and Miller counties. Remember that the Memorial Day holiday weekend was just two weeks ago. 5/8 ImageImage
South of I-44, it is Texas and now Wright counties that are worth watching closely. Wright’s rate has shifted up again, and Texas’s 7-day average has remained steady. 6/8 ImageImage
Finally, around the Joplin area, the City of Joplin itself as well as Jasper, Lawrence, McDonald, and Newton counties are experiencing a shift that is very similar to what we’re seeing around the Lake of the Ozarks and Springfield. 7/8 ImageImage
If you want to check on regional trends, disparities data, nursing home data, and hospitalization metrics, please check the website - slu-opengis.github.io/covid_daily_vi….

The next update will be tomorrow via River City Data, while my next 🧵 will be Tuesday, 6/15.

8/8

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More from @chrisprener

Jan 4, 2022
My #COVID19 site will not be updated until tomorrow, but I wanted to walk through some plots from St. Louis's hospitalization data release today. These are the most detailed, up-to-date in-patient data we get in MO. We're getting new patients at the fastest rate of the pandemic.
I lump confirmed/suspected cases together into one trend, whose one-day value from today is near its all-time high from our winter '20-'21 surge. Our confirmed COVID+ number, 964, is its highest ever. And the 7-day average is climbing steeply past its first and delta wave highs.
For critically ill patients, our trends have now surpassed the delta wave for both our number of ICU patients and patients who require ventilation.
Read 9 tweets
Dec 28, 2021
We want a fire department officer to have the authority to order businesses or buildings evacuated if a nearby incident that threatens peoples’ lives. Should we insist that they go to the council first, too? “Sorry, there’s an ammonia leak, but I’ll have to get legislative OK…”
I feel like reasonable people can think that example through and identify a couple of salient points:
✳️ time is of the essence - waiting until the next council meeting is unreasonable
✳️ the council doesn’t have HAZMAT training - they have no way to judge the seriousness here
This is why civil servants need what sociologists call “discretion” - they regularly confront situations in the course of their jobs that they need to make decisions about, sometimes very quickly. They’re hired and trained to have the expertise needed to make that decision.
Read 11 tweets
Dec 26, 2021
Schools going remote should literally be our last step because we’ve tried everything else. That means enforced community mask mandates, pausing high risk environments (clubs, bars, indoor dining, gyms), de-densifying classrooms, upgraded school HVAC, limiting extra curriculars…
The real problem in MO is that there is no appetite for sacrificing to keep kids in school. There is not a single place in MO that can justifiably say they’ve done the hard work to keep essential workers, hospital staff, first responders, and students safe.
Even St. Louis City, which has done a pretty good job and has one of the lowest rates of morbidity in the state, has a barely enforced mask mandate, has been slow to order first responders to mandate, (as of earlier this fall) wasn’t using surveillance testing in schools…
Read 4 tweets
Aug 29, 2021
Editing a page and a half or so of demographic history on the O'Fallon neighborhood in North City - an early Black community in St. Louis until racist housing policies destroyed it twice during the 20th century. What a heartbreaking tale that encapsulates so much. 🧵 1/
In the late 19th/early 20th centuries, the blocks just west of what today is Fairground Park had a large number of Black renters. The 1916 exclusionary zoning ordinance (very short-lived) targeted a number of blocks here to be inhabited by Black families only. 2/
After the Buchanan v. Warley ruling in 1917, exclusionary zoning ended in St. Louis (basically a few months after it began). But white neighbors in O'Fallon had already started using deed restrictions in 1910 to prevent parcels from being sold to Black families in... 3/
Read 8 tweets
Jul 21, 2021
I’ve updated my #Missouri #COVID19 website for Tuesday, 7/20 - slu-opengis.github.io/covid_daily_vi…. A few highlights are below 👇.

We’ve now plowed past 2,000 new cases per day on average in the last week, a place we were last at this past winter. 68% of new cases are outstate. 1/19
Recall that comparisons across time are hard because of various testing shifts. What is striking, though, is we have achieved significant transmission without either of our two largest cities being major contributors. This has been a rural and smaller metro outbreak so far. 2/19
Rates around both Joplin and Springfield continue to hold at very high rates, with some counties (especially around Springfield) showing small upticks yesterday. There are also at least three counties around Springfield at all-time highs (with caveats again about comparisons). 3/
Read 20 tweets
Jul 20, 2021
Breaking: Reposting the #StLouis Pandemic Task Force’s urgent appeal for a return to universal masking 👇. They’re very concerned about the numbers of deaths and ICU patients they’re seeing.
For some context and commentary, see the three follow-up tweets I posted to my original (now-deleted tweet) here 👇
I deleted the original post because I am now unsure of my interpretation of some awkward wording in their press release. I took the release to imply that ICU numbers had doubled overnight to 180, but I may be misreading what it says. The original post is here 👇 for reference.
Read 4 tweets

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