We should be talking about how we get 10M more workers back to work in þe right jobs as fast as possible, accepting þt we are leaving rubber on þe road as we do so, & postponing... 1/
@MaxKennerly@TheStalwart@markets ...worrying about inflation until 2023, when we will see where we are. Why? Because þe Fed has a straightforward way of reducing demand & cooling off inflation if it turns out þt demand is too high, but we have no good way of boosting demand if it turns out it is too low... 2/
@MaxKennerly@TheStalwart@markets ...Given þe enormous uncertainty, þe asymmetries þt emerge when you walk down þe strategy tree dominate. Until þose uncertainties resolve, no reasonable case for tightening immediately can be made. 3/END
PODCAST: "Hexapodia" Is þe Key Insight XIX: America Today: A Zero-Sum Society?
Key Insights:
* Hexapodia!
* Periodically, America has had “the frontier has closed, now scarcity rules!” panics—& they have been bad, but so far they have all been...
...false alarms.
* The “new frontier” to alleviate scarcity in America is intensive growth, right here, but more: economic poldering.
Share Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality... 2/
...References:
John F. Kennedy (1960): “The New Frontier”: Liberal Party Nomination Acceptance Speech <jfklibrary.org/archives/other…>... 3/
One set of lenses with which to view the technological core of modern economic growth brings into focus General Purpose Technologies: those technologies where advances change, if not everything, a lot, as they ramify across sector upon sector... 1/
...In the 1950s there came another GPT. Electricity was no longer a sector, for it was everywhere. But there emerged something called “microelectronics”: electrons made to dance Not in the service of providing power but rather of assisting and amplifying calculation—and... 2/
...communication. Take sand, which is mostly very finely grained particles of the rock quartz. Purify it by removing things like pieces of shell. Heat it to more than 1700°C—that is 3100°F. Add carbon. The carbon will then pull the oxygen atoms out of the quartz to make... 3/
The plague year is not over. It may be only half-over, depending on what Delta and subsequent variants do:
Bob Wachter: Covid (@UCSF) Chronicles, Day 453: ‘I know everybody’s sick of playing 3-dimensional Covid chess. Sorry, but Delta... 1/
... forces us back to the chess board…. If you’re fully vaxxed, I wouldn’t be too worried, especially… in a highly vaxxed region…. If you’re not vaccinated: I’d be afraid. Maybe even very afraid…. Sadly, ~50% of the U.S. (>age 12) remains unvaccinated, and in certain... 2/
...states (mostly southern & right-leaning), it’s more like 2/3rds…. This is the most dangerous moment to be unvaccinated…. The virus… is better at infecting people…. 3 things… about variants… a) are they more infectious? b) are they more serious? (ie, are you
Axel Weber (2013): "I was invited to a group of banks—now Deutsche Bundesbank is frequently mixed up in invitations with Deutsche Bank. I was the only central banker sitting on the panel. It was all banks. It was about securitizations. I asked my... 1/
... people to prepare. I asked the typical macro question: who are the twenty biggest suppliers of securitization products, and who are the twenty biggest buyers. I got a paper, and they were both the same set of institutions.... I said: "It looks to me that since the... 2/
...buyers and the sellers are the same institutions, as a system they have not diversified". That was one of the things that struck me: that the industry was not aware at the time that while its treasury department was reporting that it bought all these products its... 3/
First: I find this from Mervyn King for Bloomberg annoying. Yes, the risk of inflation is “real”—as it was not in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019, in all of which we were assured that it was very real... 1/
...indeed. But the risk that the recovery will be anemic is real as well. If inflation risks turn out to materialize, the Federal Reserve has a straightforward way of handling them. If anemic-recovery risks materialize, there is no path to easily handle them. Given the... 2/
...immense uncertainties, an ability to do the math of option value under asymmetric risks mandates that the sensible thing to do is to prioritize rapid recovery now, and to wait until early 2023 to see where we are with respect to inflation. And, no, we are not... 3/
We have come to our nation's capital to cash a check. When the architects of our republic wrote the Constitution and the declaration of Independence, they were signing a promissory note to which every American was to fall... 1/
...heir. This note was a promise that all men would be guaranteed the inalienable rights of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. It is obvious today that America has defaulted on this promissory note insofar as her citizens of color are concerned. Instead of... 2/
...honoring this sacred obligation, America has given the Negro people a bad check which has come back marked "insufficient funds."... So we have come to cash this check -- a check that will give us upon demand the riches of freedom and the security of justice. We have... 3/