Thread by @McFaul

I have some thoughts on this line up and the smaller meeting. THREAD 1/

https://twitter.com/vmsalama/status/1404856936500240388

First, that Lavrov is in the small meeting and not Ushakov is interesting. In the past, Ushakov was always there. Also not standard protocol for the Secretary of State to be the +1, but Blinken has a special relationship with Biden.

Second, striking that General Gerasimov is there. That is highly unusual. His US counterpart is not. That signals to me that strategic stability talks are at top of agenda. And don’t forget, Antonov was chief negotiator of New START treaty.

Third, Peskov is there. Western observers frequently mistaken him as a “press secretary “. He is much more than that to Putin. He’s one of Putins closest advisors. I’ll bet he wants to replace Lavrov someday

Fourth, Kozak is there, again very unusual. He also is close to Putin personally; a@bigger figure than his formal title suggests. There for the Ukraine discussion?

Fifth, Lavrentiev is there, their point on Syria. That’s a good sign. Maybe they’ll get an agreement to extend humanitarian assistance to the Syrian people? Wonder if McGurk Will be a late addition to US side?

Sixth, Ryabkov is there. He’s point at MFA for relations with US. Extremely capable diplomat. Good sign.

Seventh, Patrushev is NOT there. That is striking since he met with Jake Sullivan to prep this meeting. General Patrushev is a hardliner on US. Is his absence a signal that Putin wants a cordial@meeting?

8th, Antonov is there. Ambassadors don’t usually attend meetings in 3ed countries, but he & ambassador Sullivan are in Geneva because they are both going back to work in their respective embassies. That’s the signal at least.

9th, on US side , not as much signaling. The delegations are not symmetric. That’s unusual. Biggest signal in US delegation is Nuland. It’s unusual but not unheard of tp have the Secretary and Undersecretary at same meeting. But US doesn’t have confirmed Assistant Secy yet

Nulands presences is tp signal to Russians and rest of USG that she will be too Biden official in charge of Russia (Campbell at NSC has point on China). Ok, end of my Kremlinology! Comments welcome END THREAD.

Sorry for typos . Doing on the fly from a tv studio I’m Geneva