Putin always makes a big impression. THREAD 1/
I was there for Obama's first meeting with Putin in 2009.
I was there for Biden's first meeting with Putin in 2011. 3/
In these meetings, Putin always came with a concrete game plan. He sometimes says outlandish things to see how his interlocutors will react. (His comment about race in the Biden meeting was particularly memorable.). Biden was prepared in 2011. I expect the same next week. 4/ END

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More from @McFaul

2 Jun
"The Biden administration will also need to reform the U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM), which has sustained considerable damage during the Trump era." THREAD 1/
"Washington should not seek to counter Russian propaganda with American propaganda. Rather, it should work to counter disinformation with real reporting from credible journalists in Russia, Ukraine, and other countries in the region." 2/
"To that end, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty should be spun out of the USAGM and made an independent organization, still funded by Congress but with its own board and a sturdier firewall separating it from the federal government." 3/
Read 4 tweets
13 May
It’s the last 3 weeks of my son’s high school basketball career, so I’ve been watching a lot of basketball lately and thinking about US-China relations while sitting in the stands. THREAD 1/
When my sons team plays with confidence, they often win. When they don’t play with confidence, they make mistakes, and often lose. 2/
The US needs to play with more confidence when competing against China. Yes, China is a formidable “team”. But better than the US? No. In this competition, we need to play with more confidence and stop believing that China is bound to overtake, let alone “defeat” us. 3/
Read 4 tweets
9 May
"In late March 1944, as Stalin’s forces push into Ukraine, young Emil and Adeline Martel must make a terrible decision: " THREAD 1/
"Do they wait for the Soviet bear’s intrusion and risk being sent to Siberia? Or do they reluctantly follow the wolves—murderous Nazi officers who have pledged to protect “pure-blood” Germans?" 2/
"The Martels are one of many families of German heritage whose ancestors have farmed in Ukraine for more than a century." 3/
Read 7 tweets
4 May
"The Biden administration must also counter Russian aggression against non-NATO partners. And no theater in the fight to contain Putin is more important than Ukraine." THREAD 1/
"Building a secure, prosperous, and democratic Ukraine, even if parts of the country remain under Russian occupation, is the best way to counter Moscow’s ideological and military aggression in Europe." 2/
"A successful, democratic Ukraine will inspire new democratic possibilities inside Russia and other former Soviet republics—just as a failed Ukrainian democracy and economy will serve Putin’s narrative about the futility of revolutions allegedly sponsored by the United States."3
Read 4 tweets
30 Apr
Why has Putin and his autocratic regime become so much more repressive at home in recent weeks? Why is Putin becoming so increasingly paranoid? THREAD 1/
And Putin is not de-escalating or seeking to stabilize relations with the West, but debilitating the work of the US embassy in Russia and adding more EU officials to the Russian sanctions list? Why? Why now? 2/
Is this really the best moment for a Biden-Putin summit? The mere event of a meeting is a win for Putin, but what does Biden or the American people get out of it? If the promise of a future summit was supposed to modify Putin's bad behavior, that strategy is not working. 3/
Read 5 tweets
26 Apr
In 2011, US-Russia relations were cooperative. Obama and Biden had signed the New START Treaty, imposed new sanctions on Iran, vastly expanded NDN, worked together to get Russia into the WTO, expanded trade & investment, negotiated a new visa regime... THREAD 1/
Most amazingly, Medvedev abstained on UNSCR 1970 & 1973 authorizing the use of force in Libya. At the time, solid majorities in both countries had a positive view of the country. 2/
In 2012, U.S.-Russia relations became quickly uncooperative, punctuated by the closing of USAID in Russia, Snowden asylum, annexation of Crimea in 2014, Russian intervention in Syria, interference in U.S. 2016 presidential election, etc. 3/
Read 8 tweets

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