Thread by @ramakumarr

1/ <Thread> on how India's vaccination drive is proceeding in June 2021, and whether it would meet GoI's goals. GoI had said that it would administer 12 crore doses in June. Data till 15 June show that there would be a 25% shortfall from the target of doses for the full month.

2/ First, the goals. On 30 May, GoI put out a press release saying it would "make available" 12 crore for June 2021. I had written about this in @thewire_in: bit.ly/2S2ahAX. I had noted that a similar target was not met in May 2021. It won't be met in June 2021 either.

3/ Second, the method for this mid-month assessment. I take vaccination data from 1 June to 15 June, and then double it to see if the targets for the full month of June 2021 would be met. I also look at total vaccine doses administered in India, by the type of vaccines.

4/ Now, to the results. Between 1 June and 15 June, India administered 4.6 crore doses at a rate of 30.6 lakh doses/day. In May 2021, the rate was 19.3 lakh doses/day. With this, India has returned close to the average rate recorded in April 2021, which was 29.4 doses/day.

5/ If this rate is maintained, India may administer about 9 crore doses in June 2021. The "if" is important; vaccination rates were uneven across days in June. Even if we assume the present rate, India WILL NOT administer anywhere close to the goal of 12 crore doses set for June.

6/ At the present rate, India would be administering 3 crore doses less in June compared to the target set by GoI. This large difference between the claim and the reality shows that the vaccine numbers put out in advance by GoI for every month have very little reliability.

7/ Let us see the numbers by vaccine type. The GoI release did not provide targets by type of vaccines. But G. Kishen Reddy, Union Minister of State for Home, tweeted out a detailed month-wise table of targets (attached). His target was not 12 crore but 10 crore for June 2021.

8/ Reddy claimed that 6.5 crore doses of Covishield (by SII), 2.5 crore doses of Covaxin (by BB) and 1 crore dosses of Sputnik V will be administered in June 2021. Let us note, at the outset, that even this lower target of 10 crore will not be fulfilled in June. Let it be.

9/ Interestingly, in yet another tweet on 16 May, Reddy had raised the number from 10 crore to 11 crore (see attachment). The difference was that instead of 2.5 crore doses of Covaxin, he claimed the availability of 3.5 crore doses. In claims, you should always aim for the moon!

10/ Extrapolating from the 1st fortnight, India would have 7.6 crore doses of Covishield, 1.5 crore doses of Covaxin and 33,556 doses of Sputnik V in the month of June. SII's contribution appears more than promised by Reddy. Its good, if these numbers hold over the 2nd fortnight.

11/ But the problem continues to be with BB's Covaxin and Sputnik V. At the present rate, BB would produce 1 to 2 crore doses LESS in June compared to Reddy's tall claims. Poor production of Covaxin, thus, continues to seriously haunt India's vaccination drive.

12/ If Reddy promised 1 crore doses of Sputnik V in June, our numbers show the availability of only 33,556 doses, or one-third of the promised doses. Is there a major import consignment awaited? We don't know. But if there isn't, Sputnik V would also pull down the June numbers.

13/ In sum, first, there is a small improvement in daily vaccination rates in June over May. But we are only seeing a modest return to the full April average, and not the average for April 1st week. Remember, vaccination rates were more than 40 lakh doses/day in April 1st week.

14/ Secondly, the promises made by GoI were not met for May and will not be met for June also. If there was a shortage of 2-2.5 crore doses in May, the shortage in June is likely to be 3 crore doses. The difference between the claim and the reality is actually widening.

15/ Unless India's vaccination rates rise from 30 lakh doses/day to 55-60 lakh doses/day, it will not be able to vaccinate 100% of 18+ population by early-2022. At the present rate, it will reach that target only by 2023. But by then, ~30 crore <18 persons will join the net.

16/ The questions are these:
(1) will SII be able to raise Covishield production to 10 crore doses/month by August?
(2) will BB produce 4 times more Covaxin (7.5 crore doses/month) b/w June and July 2021?
(3) Are large import consignments of Sputnik V expected anytime soon?

17/ (4) will 1 crore doses of ZyCov-D become available from September?
(5) will 7.5 crore doses of Corbevax become available per month from September?
(6) will 5 crore doses of J&J vaccine become available per month from September?

18/ (7) will 5 crore doses of Covavax become available per month from September?
(8) will 2 crore doses of Gennova vaccine become available per month in September?
(9) will 5 crore doses of Covaxin Nasal become available per month from November?

19/ From available signals, all these are unlikely. There may be trickles coming in, but no major rise in availability may be expected before December. Vaccine availability between May and December 2021 will be significantly lower than the expected/claimed 259 crore doses.

20/ Thus, vaccine doses are likely to be in shortage through 2021. But please do not expect any shortage of positivity doses. As shortage of vaccine doses rise, positivity doses will become more and mesmerising. That's the reality of the post-truth world we now inhabit.

(EoT)

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