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Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
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16 Jun, 4 tweets, 1 min read
1% (or one in 100) of people in East Darwen were detected as Covid cases this week.
And last week
And the week before that (give or take)
Whereas there were fewer than 3 cases in East Darwen two months ago.

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More from @Dr_D_Robertson

Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
17 Jun
A comparison of case rates and hospitalizations at the beginning of the second and the current wave.

(We can't do this for cases in the first wave as mass testing didn't exist.)

A short thread. ImageImageImageImage
In August/September last year, cases started in 20-29 year olds and then moved up to older and younger age groups. Image
This is the case for this wave: May/June 2021. Cases starting in 10-19 year olds and moving to older and younger age groups. Over this period we see a doubling in 60-69, 70-79, and 80+ age groups but from a *very low base*. Image
Read 7 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
17 Jun
Heatmaps of cases, positivity, hospitalizations, and ICU admissions - data to 13 June published 17 June by PHE.
- cases increasing in all age groups (fanning out from 20-29 year olds)
- low hospitalizations/ICU admissions.
- need to keep watching hospitalizations
Cases increasing in all age groups.
- Note all these charts are coloured against the peak of the (very severe) December/January wave.
- We do not know the vaccine status of these cases.

Nearly 200 cases per 100,000 in 20-29 year olds.
Positivity (Pillar 2). ~4% in 5-9 and 20-29 year old males, 5-9 year old females.
Read 7 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
17 Jun
PHE have issued their latest surveillance report.

"Case rates increased in all age groups, ethnic groups and regions. Overall Pillar 1 and Pillar 2 positivity increased compared to the previous week, most notably in younger age groups."

A thread
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
"This week, data on SARS-CoV-2 reinfections in England are being reported for the first time. 15,893 possible reinfections have been identified, of which 53 have been confirmed by identification of genetically distinct specimens from each illness episode."
"COVID-19 hospitalisations increased slightly in week 23. Deaths with COVID-19 decreased in week 23."

(hospitalizations follow cases, deaths follow hospitalizations. This data is for the period ended 13 June.
Read 36 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
17 Jun
On Cornwall cases and the G7. A short thread.

Cases have risen significantly.
The epicentres of these cases appear to be linked to G7 activity (h/t @_johnbye)
Now, there will be both a lot more activity and a lot more testing due to the G7.

Setting up the venue causes activity and mixing which can spread Covid. Many people will have come from outside Cornwall to help with G7.

Cases started increasing before the G7 main event.
Read 8 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
14 Jun
Here is the LSHTM paper on Roadmap Step 4
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

A central scenario (assuming a delay of 4-5 weeks) bearing in mind there is still uncertainty.

But: a projection in this wave:

*43,500* (between 31,200-62,900) deaths

Peak deaths *500* (between 300-800) per day
Here is a thread giving more detail of the modelling used by LSHTM

Here's the Warwick projection
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Read 7 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
14 Jun
Let's look at the SAGE 92 minutes that would have informed the Government's thinking.

A thread.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Additional material has also been released from meetings the previous week.

gov.uk/government/pub…
But back to the SAGE 92 consensus statement.

"R is now estimated to be 40–80% higher for delta than for alpha (B.1.1.7), although a figure higher or lower than this cannot be ruled out. "

*40 to 80%*
Read 17 tweets

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