Recently bought #GlobusSpirits. I see good value in this counter, can give multifold returns in 2-3 yrs.

Broad summary:

1. The company has paid off 110 Cr debt in 4 years
2. Debt reduced from 252 Cr to 142 Cr
3. Doubling the capacity from 140 to 280 KLPD in WB
4. Paying debt & increasing capacity- very good sign
5. Currently running at 100% Capacity
6. Margins have improved in last 4 yrs (8% to 20%)
7. Cash has gone up to 58 Cr
8. Present across the value chain
9. Supplier of hand spirit to FMCG player
10. Got pan India access due to merger with Unibev
11. Huge scope to grow in franchise bottling
12. Globus today stands where #RadicoKhaitan was 4 years back (7x rise in market cap).
13. Most interesting fact: Globus is the largest broken rice grain-based fermenter in India. They get similar benefits like the sugar industry on ethanol blending in petrol. This story seems completely unnoticed, farmers will get benefited & company need not pay heavy excise duty
#DhampurSugar has a current ethanol capacity of 300 KLPD. Globus is doubling the capacity from 140 KLPD to 280 KLPD in West Bengal. Dhampur has earned 200 Cr PBT in this capacity in FY21. I think Globus will earn substantially on this front.
100 Kg Sugar yields 45 Liters of ethanol while 100 Kg rice yields 30 Liters of ethanol. Though the ethanol yield from rice is low, this gives extra income to farmers from waste broken rice, hence looks accretive. The company will enjoy sustainable income in this segment.
Latest concall

As per this latest concall update, the Current total ethanol capacity is 500 KLPD. They are adding 420 KLPD.

So out of total 920 KLPD, 25% goes to ENA (liquor) rest 75% will go ethanol for petrol blending & sanitiser
#ShreeRenuka Sugar has an existing capacity of 720 KLPD. Stock is in continuous UCs.

Here #GlobusSpirits is emerging as the largest ethanol producer of the country with 920 KLPD capacity

Renuka Mcap 5600 Cr Debt 2900 Cr
Globus Mcap 1300 Cr Debt 140 Cr
Regarding the stock selling by a private fund, mgmt has clarified that they are invested for the past 8 years and it's normal selling.

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More from @PrasadWakchaure

13 Jun
Ammonia is set to become World’s another renewable fuel. Sounds interesting? Thread.

Renewable fuels & energy storage solutions are the buzzing trends of the world. Increase in Solar & Wind energy harvesting efficiency have changed all the energy dynamics.

#Deepakfertilizer
This is disrupting many traditional businesses and impacting human life positively. Technology is accelerating & facing the change is life.

An ammonia molecule is composed of one nitrogen atom and three hydrogen atoms & mostly was used in making urea fertilizer.
With the emerging new application of ammonia as a green fuel, there is a possibility of World facing ammonia crunch and hence can give pricing power to the manufacturers. 180 Million tons of ammonia is made annually, 40% of plants are old. China is the largest producer.
Read 15 tweets
15 Aug 20
Great news from #Lupin for Phase 3 data on #Solosec for Trichomoniasis. Its supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA). Solosec is currently approved by the FDA to treat bacterial vaginosis (BV) in adult women, so no safety concerns. FDA would look for good efficacy data (1)
Firstly, no new antibiotics are discovered. Humans are under a continuous threat against microbes. Solesec is developed by Symbiomix Therapeutics, Lupin bought it in 2017 for $150M

In the trial, 92% of patients achieved the primary endpoint versus 1.5% in the placebo group (2)
The cure rate was 95%(56/59) for Solosec versus 1.7% (1/60) for placebo. Well-tolerated, no serious adverse events were observed in the trial.

If approved, can get 10-year exclusivity. This is big. Most of the topline goes to the bottom line in patented drugs (3)
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12 Aug 20
Few API players showed a sudden jump in profit margins in the gone quarter. I am trying to connect the dots by comparing COVID affected the first half of 2020 with 2018 when China was cracking down pollution from end of 2017. This has led to similar supply chain disruption

(1)
during 2018 in polluting chemical industries. The companies like Sadhana nitrochem, HEG/GI, Mangalam/Kanchi were the few to name Indian players who got benefited. See the share price of these companies after the end of 2017. The situation changed and afterward supply chain

(2)
became normal & stock prices have gone down.

Coming to 2020, the Wuhan region in China which is a chemical production zone was affected due to COVID from mid-January. 70% Indian API & raw material comes from China, and switching on-off is not that quick in the

(3)
Read 12 tweets
3 Aug 20
My Thread on #CaplinPointLab

Sales Growth 3 years CAGR 40%,
Profit Growth 3 years CAGR 56% but

Stock price 3 years CAGR -14%!

Do you see value?

Because 10 Year Stock CAGR is 67%.

The company has grown from 15 Cr Mcap in 2010 to 3500 Cr today with negligible debt.
Always expanding through internal accruals. Negligible debt between 2011-15 and debt-free from 2015.

This is a well-known multi-bagger of last pharma bull run till 2015.

So let's focus on what has changed in the last 5 years when stock corrected to half from peak. (2)
Key transformations in last 5 years:

1. Entered regulated market in 2018 (US, UK, EU)
2. Shift from generic to branded generic (25% revenue currently)
3. Entered high margin injectable & Ophthalmic segment
4. 400 Cr Capex to serve US business through internal accruals (3)
Read 10 tweets
25 Jul 20
Companies present in the API+Formulation+Branded drug segment fetch high margins. They are called vertically integrated.

Companies operating in the only formulation segment are currently at risk of raw material/API supply from China.
India has a strong presence in the API+Formulation+Generic segment but dependant on China for raw material.

Outsourcing happens from top to bottom. Branded drugs are still manufactured mostly in developed countries.

Generic drugs are thin margin high volume business
Companies operating in the bottom of the pyramid don't have bargain power, hence never get rich valuations. While companies at the middle-top part of the pyramid often secure inventions through patent protections, hence they get a power to wipe out competitors
Read 5 tweets
25 Jul 20
What a fantastic company & Mgmt. Growing without taking debt, Stock 10 yr CAGR 46%, No equity dilution for a decade. Uninterrupted dividend-paying since 1952, 1300 Acre integrated manufacturing campus. Serves diverse products/sector/geographies/customers (1/1)
Broadly presence in Dye, Agrochemicals, Pharma API intermediates, Polymer, Fragrance, Bulk & specialty chemicals. World leader in date Palm tissue culture plants.
Agrochemicals: 3 fungicides, 10 herbicides, 1 insecticide, and their intermediates (2/2)
Pharma segment: Through subsidiary Atul Biosciences

World’s largest manufacturers of Dapsone, an API with USFDA approval

➤ API intermediates (21 products)
➤ Peptide API intermediates (10 products)
➤ Phosgene based bulk chemicals (34 products)
(3/3)
Read 5 tweets

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