Another day, another viral article being cited as proof that ivermectin can cure COVID-19
The newest example is even more depressing than previous ones somehow 1/n
2/n The paper is here, and mostly it's just a perspective piece in a minor Nature offshoot (Journal of Antibiotics, IF 2.4) written by two members of what I can only describe as a pro-ivermectin advocacy group nature.com/articles/s4142…
3/n The advocacy group is called Front Line COVID Critical Care Alliance, and has a very flashy website that basically advocates for ivermectin (and vitamin D, melatonin, and mouthwash) as the cure of all COVID ills
4/n Now, this might be something of a red flag for publication in a scientific journal, but this affiliation isn't mentioned in the paper or the conflicts of interest which is a bit odd
5/n The review itself is mostly fairly boring - it is a reiteration of the same lab-bench data that was used initially as a reason to trial ivermectin, although the language is quite strange at times ("unsuspecting victims" is, uh, quirky)
6/n But some parts of the piece are simply wild. For example, instead of citing the Cochrane, BMJ, or other recent systematic reviews, the authors cite ivmmeta dot com, an anonymous website that is far from scientific
7/n Indeed, the authors have copied the information in this paragraph directly from this shoddy website, leading to this wonderful sentence making its way into a published scientific paper
8/n Complete misinterpretations of p-values aside, the website is one of many really bizarre anonymous efforts to push ivermectin and other unproven medications for COVID-19
9/n More rigorous reviews have pointed out that virtually all published studies on ivermectin are of extremely low quality, but you wouldn't know that from the summary presented on ivmmeta dot com!
10/n In fact, one of my favourite parts is where a WHO investigation that concluded that ivermectin should not be given outside of a clinical trial as the evidence is so woeful is misrepresented as showing that ivermectin is massively beneficial!
11/n (As a side note, the odds ratio is apparently presented because the WHO didn't "provide the details required to calculate the RR". That's weird, because the WHO did in fact calculate an RR in the report)
12/n Anyway, this website is what I would call solidly pseudoscientific - mimicking science closely enough to trap the unwary, but so filled with errors that the evidence is largely worthless
13/n Even funnier than all this, perhaps, is the conclusion of the paper, because despite this all being used online as proof that ivermectin works perfectly that's not even what the authors say
14/n I mean, "repurposing of approved drugs such as ivermectin" has been the focus of most of our attention since March 2020, it's not like we needed that push
15/n Anyway, it is very odd that this paper was published as is, it has at least a few pretty bizarre red flags, but that hasn't stopped it reaching an Altmetric of 4,500
Yay, science!
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There's a reasonable basis for arguing that at a population level there might be some reduction in cancer rates if people stopped eating PROCESSED red meat
Less strong is the argument that eating non-processed red meat might impact cancer rates - even if there is some reduction, it would be pretty modest at a population level
The trick is to be honest about the probabilities and what we know
So, for example, if you are worried about freedom, don't misuse vaccine reporting systems to make up fake concerns. Just talk about the issue you care about
The problem is that most of the time the issues that people care about are not really interesting or realistic. "Oh no they might force kids to get a vaccine" is a tired, tedious line
Instead, people who are against COVID-19 vaccines for whatever reason tend to go with arguments that are a lot less accurate but a lot more emotive, which is where the issues with the discussion come in
In the first scenario, which most scientists espouse, we can't rule out the possibility that COVID-19 came from a lab, but it's the least likely explanation by a fair bit
Still needs looking in to!
In the second scenario, people have aggregated bizarre and nonsensical arguments into an impenetrable morass of vague thinking that supposedly means something - this is why I say it's like a conspiracy theory
2/n The paper is here. The authors and ethics approval are essentially identical, and the text is very similar. There are, however, some really odd differences between the publication and preprint academic.oup.com/jcem/advance-a…
3/n First off, the published version doesn't mention that this study was preprinted then retracted as far as I can tell
Fascinating thread. It's wrong in numerous ways - the methodology is pretty trivially incorrect, many of the statements are wrong based even on a quick google
But it's face-plausible so people jump on board. Very interesting
Taking one basic error in the thread as an example, the tables only work if you assume that the proportions in each age group are identical across these countries, which is very trivially wrong
Another basic mistake - the US had patchy lockdowns that weren't all in place for most of the year, so it's boringly incorrect to compare to Sweden in this way
The simple fact is that our current system for generating and correcting evidence has not handled the incredibly tight timeframes of Covid in any reasonable way
I think this story about a paper in Scientific Reports exemplifies the issue
The authors and editors did everything RIGHT as far as traditional academia goes. And yet, it was a massive failure in many ways