Thread by @TheValuesVoter

In the last 30 years, every time the party holding the White House has lost more than three of the states that it won during the last election, that party has lost the Presidential Election.

Trump lost 5 states (and Nebraska's Second CD*) in 2020 that he won in 2016.

Regardless of whether the incumbent President ran for re-election (like Trump in 2020) or is term-limited (like Obama in 2016), no one since 1988 has won a Presidential Election after losing more than 3 states their party won the last time.

And, of course, the explanation for Trump's losses of the five states that he lost in 2020 is incredibly simple - even if you don't go into things like his approval rating, exit polls, etc.
#TrumpLost

Trump lost two states where the GOP had been tanking over multiple elections (AZ and GA). And he lost three states where the GOP generally never wins and his very narrow win in 2016 was a historic anomaly (MI, PA and WI).

In all of these states, the GOP has suffered a number of losses in downballot contests as well during the Trump era. Governorships, US House and Senate seats, State House and Senate seats, etc. There's a bunch of Democrats sitting in seats that used to be occupied by Republicans.

* Maine and Nebraska have for years been the only states that awarded their electors by Congressional District. For example, in 2020, Biden won Nebraska's Second District despite Trump winning statewide and Trump won Maine's Second District despite Biden winning statewide.