Where to next for the NI Protocol, following the G7 and the growing stand off over UK threats to unilaterally extend the grace period for chilled meats?
2/ Contacts between the European Commission and the UK govt have resumed, with talk of a possible meeting of the Specialised Committee, the technical body which prepares work for the more political Joint Committee.
3/ Nothing is confirmed yet, and there's no meeting planned between @DavidGHFrost and @MarosSefcovic. However, the July 1 chilled meats deadline is fast approaching, so things may start to accelerate if both sides want to avoid another clash over unilateral action
4/ EU sources say there has been no formal request from the UK asking the EU to extend the chilled meats grace period, certainly not during last week's Joint Committee meeting. So they're not sure if Frost's allusion to a request was a balloon floating exercise...
5/ ...or if he was referring to an informal, historic suggestion.
6/ The view in Brussels is that a request for an extension would not be absolutely and flatly ruled out. However, there are problems: firstly, the original chilled meats grace period, mutually agreed in December, came with strict conditions attached
7/ These included a commitment that chilled meats - sausages, etc - would be clearly labelled as for sale in NI only, that the UK would develop simplified Export Health Certs stating that such products fully comply with EU legislation
8/ ...that they are "submitted to a systematic documentary check and to a risk-based identity check on a selection of items in the means of transport"
9/...and that they are specially monitored when moving from NI ports to designated supermarkets.

EU sources say these conditions have not been met, which does not encourage member states to agree to a new grace period
10/ Secondly, the EU believes that rolling grace periods and derogations go against the spirit of the Protocol and what was agreed by @michaelgove and @MarosSefcovic in December, and that they do not provide stability and certainty for businesses
11/ On an EU UK SPS agreement, the EU continues to regard this as the best way of removing the vast majority of checks and controls on agrifood products crossing the Irish Sea..
12/ David Frost's allusion in the NI Affairs Select Cttee on Wed to the problem that the EU wd want to "police" any such agreement through the ECJ has been spotted as a potential opening (well, mainly by Protocol nerds)
13/ A source says that Switzerland, Norway and others who dynamically align with EU food safety rules are all subject to ECJ oversight. Could an exception be made for the UK, in the same way that the TCA managed to keep the ECJ out of the picture?
14/ Possibly, said one source, but then you are into creating an entirely new SPS relationship from scratch, and that would take time, and would certainly not be done before July 1

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More from @tconnellyRTE

16 Jun
.@DavidGHFrost tells the NI Affairs Cttee the Northern Ireland Protocol is "a very delicately balanced set of provisions, with quite a lot of loose ends and open ended provisions for subsequent negotiation…" [Not the EU's understanding of it]
2/ Tells Cttee there has been "a very visible weakening of consent" for the Protocol in one community in NI
3/ Asked if the constant threat by the UK of triggering Article 16 undermines trust and stability, Frost says "all options remain on the table" but wd prefer to find other solutions "if we can". Says the current efforts to implement the Protocol add to "instability"
Read 6 tweets
11 Jun
NEW: The EU will take a measured response to any further unilateral moves by the UK to delay implementation of the Northern Ireland Protocol, with senior officials signalling a staggered approach to legal action and arbitration, @rtenews understands.
2/ This would be to avoid falling into what diplomats fear would be the “trap” of escalating tensions around the Protocol as the loyalist marching season in Northern Ireland approaches its peak.
3/ The UK is widely expected to unilaterally extend a grace period, agreed with the EU in December, which delays the ban on chilled meats entering Northern Ireland from GB, and which expires on July 1.
Read 20 tweets
10 Jun
Now that sausage wars are a thing, it’s worth pointing out what is at issue: this is not about the EU and UK banning each other’s sausages, never mind a “sausage war”
2/ The EU is raising the prospect of arbitration / cross retaliation through the TCA dispute mechanisms because of the alleged bad faith by the UK in not implementing the NI Protocol per se (and the unilateral actions it has taken)
3/ Those unilateral actions have had to do with grace periods, mutually agreed in December, relating to meats, Export Health Certificates, plants and pets
Read 17 tweets
9 Jun
Quick thread on today’s Joint Committee: view in Brussels is that it was not as bad as it could have been, but the situation remains grim...
2/ Positive elements: it didn’t turn into a fully fledged confrontation and both sides will continue working and talking; both sides agreed for the need to lower the political temperature; at not point did @DavidGHFrost say the UK wd give up on the Protocol or trigger Article 16
3/ However, I understand the UK refused to agree to a joint statement, due in part to an objection to language that both sides were fully committed to implementing the NI Protocol (checking this with UK side)
Read 15 tweets
7 Jun
EU official: Joint Committee likely to be the most difficult of the two mtgs this week. 2 issues: 1/ citizens rights, deadline for residents applications end of June 2/ Protocol on IE/NI
“No doubt protocol biggest issue this week. To avoid a hard border & gains of peace process EU & U.K. need to work jointly and in good faith”
Only joint solutions, as agreed by EU & UK will bring about benefits of Protocol
Read 4 tweets
4 Jun
NEW: The EU is growing increasingly pessimistic about the prospects of a breakthrough on how the Northern Ireland Protocol is implemented, with senior officials and diplomats warning that the UK appears determined to undermine it.
2/ Senior figures have told @rtenews that a mtg of the EU-UK Joint Cttee next week will be more a showdown over the UK’s continued sniping against the Protocol, and ongoing unilateral moves to delay its implementation, rather than a breakthrough that might end months of tension.
3/ It had previously been hoped that both sides might agree on a combination of flexibilities and a roadmap to full implementation of the Protocol at next week’s meeting.
Read 18 tweets

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