State of the Market by @hasufl and @zhusu
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Thread (1/n)
Youtube:
Apple Podcast: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/unc…
Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/3vuV292Hi…
Is the Bull Market over?
People generally have trouble zooming out:
> YoY Total Value Lock in protocols
> YoY Activity in Addresses
> Daily Volumes
We are at monumental figures, healthy signs of adoption & continued interest
People generally have trouble zooming out:
> YoY Total Value Lock in protocols
> YoY Activity in Addresses
> Daily Volumes
We are at monumental figures, healthy signs of adoption & continued interest
>Some coins went up every month for 9 months straight pullback not necessary a bad thing
>Gives entry point to new comers
>Bull Market definitely not over
>Also allows institutional participants to get involved Good chance to get into ETH
>Gives entry point to new comers
>Bull Market definitely not over
>Also allows institutional participants to get involved Good chance to get into ETH
Hasu's View:
> Recent run up has been most orderly run in history of crypto
> Relentless buying on every dip and dips kept getting smaller and smaller
> People thought major dip not possible
> Recent run up has been most orderly run in history of crypto
> Relentless buying on every dip and dips kept getting smaller and smaller
> People thought major dip not possible
Did Drop surprise Su?
> No
> Cycle of FUD: China / Elon / Tesla
> People start pricing in extreme cases
> People who had been buying through out started waiting to buy dip
> Market took as point to start taking profits
> Still tremendous amount of buy demand still exists
> No
> Cycle of FUD: China / Elon / Tesla
> People start pricing in extreme cases
> People who had been buying through out started waiting to buy dip
> Market took as point to start taking profits
> Still tremendous amount of buy demand still exists
Bearish News out of China?
> Maybe some countries will support POW because they have energy -> China is one refutation about this and now concerned about green energy and climate change (all industries inc. Crypto)
> Crackdown on mining
> Notable mining facility issues
> Maybe some countries will support POW because they have energy -> China is one refutation about this and now concerned about green energy and climate change (all industries inc. Crypto)
> Crackdown on mining
> Notable mining facility issues
> Exchange's leverage (Huobi)
> Hedging for coins as well as mining
> Alt coin market having some signs of froth, difficult to say it was overheated
> Market started pricing in there would be daily flows then got hit by bearish news
> Hedging for coins as well as mining
> Alt coin market having some signs of froth, difficult to say it was overheated
> Market started pricing in there would be daily flows then got hit by bearish news
Are Pandemic & Crypto related?
> Su doesn’t really think this is the case, does think there is a digital shift occurring
Reasons people coming to crypto:
>NFTS
>DEFI
>Store of value
>Hedge against inflation
> Su doesn’t really think this is the case, does think there is a digital shift occurring
Reasons people coming to crypto:
>NFTS
>DEFI
>Store of value
>Hedge against inflation
Microstategy:
>Saylor is true bitcoin bull & sophisticated investor
>Understands how to access capital cheaper than other people can
>Seems like he is creating and ETF structure for his stock (similar to Grayscale)
>Reminder that Saylor does have a sell button option for BTC
>Saylor is true bitcoin bull & sophisticated investor
>Understands how to access capital cheaper than other people can
>Seems like he is creating and ETF structure for his stock (similar to Grayscale)
>Reminder that Saylor does have a sell button option for BTC
ETH flipping BTC:
Yes thesis still in play, pull backed slightly still at strong level
ETH now has same on ramps, futures, listings etc.
People are now conditioned to think of multiple crypto assets – no long one crypto portfolio focus
Ether as a productive asset and why it has
Yes thesis still in play, pull backed slightly still at strong level
ETH now has same on ramps, futures, listings etc.
People are now conditioned to think of multiple crypto assets – no long one crypto portfolio focus
Ether as a productive asset and why it has
>BTC to digital gold demand is relatively low vs programmable money
>Bitcoin as monetary is not as strong vs programmable money / finance / culture which Ethereum finds itself in
>Corporate thesis for BTC not playing out as well as expected
>Bitcoin as monetary is not as strong vs programmable money / finance / culture which Ethereum finds itself in
>Corporate thesis for BTC not playing out as well as expected
BTC Bull Case:
>Central banks adopt
> Nations give BTC a legal tender
> BTC given a status that’s higher than other assets or as good as fiat this will be very powerful but this requires multiple countries to come in and do this together can’t just be one country
>Central banks adopt
> Nations give BTC a legal tender
> BTC given a status that’s higher than other assets or as good as fiat this will be very powerful but this requires multiple countries to come in and do this together can’t just be one country
> Proof of work does offer a vested interest for countries with energy
> If POW and POS work, but if POS is next generation this is a very dangerous narrative for POW coins
> Climate Change mandate will affect POW and if POS is upgrade is an intellectual / ideological question
> If POW and POS work, but if POS is next generation this is a very dangerous narrative for POW coins
> Climate Change mandate will affect POW and if POS is upgrade is an intellectual / ideological question
@zcash moving to POS?
> #ZCash has a history of upgrades so very possible for it to move to POS
> If #ETH does this successfully ZCash may start exploring hybrid POS, most likely
> #Doge would be second
> Monero, LTC, BCH probably would not do POS
> #ZCash has a history of upgrades so very possible for it to move to POS
> If #ETH does this successfully ZCash may start exploring hybrid POS, most likely
> #Doge would be second
> Monero, LTC, BCH probably would not do POS
Hasu Taproot Thesis:
Taproot opens the door to faster development for BTC – if ETH were to flip BTC it would be bullish for BTC bc BTC governance would move towards something more upgradable bc it would recognize this fact
Taproot opens the door to faster development for BTC – if ETH were to flip BTC it would be bullish for BTC bc BTC governance would move towards something more upgradable bc it would recognize this fact
ETH & EIP1559 burn fees:
10x increase in throughput =>100x adoption of ETH
Now polygon L2 is being used to scale
Always will be demand with L1 transactions
Broadband phase: Huge amount of economic activity on ETH fees will go up bc each user will pay less fees but 100x users
10x increase in throughput =>100x adoption of ETH
Now polygon L2 is being used to scale
Always will be demand with L1 transactions
Broadband phase: Huge amount of economic activity on ETH fees will go up bc each user will pay less fees but 100x users
Next Defi Summer:
> Will happen across chains, not on single chain maximalism (DOT, SOL etc)
> Healthy bit of nationalism is fine but reality is that if people are using on chain activity to bring about adoption doesn’t matter what chain it is on, as long as it is decentralized
> Will happen across chains, not on single chain maximalism (DOT, SOL etc)
> Healthy bit of nationalism is fine but reality is that if people are using on chain activity to bring about adoption doesn’t matter what chain it is on, as long as it is decentralized
> (SOL, DOT, Avalanche) reasonably decentralized, everyone loves winner take all thesis (like sports) but in reality in markets it doesn’t work this way – many competitors can increase synergy together growing pie phase of smart contract phase.
> ETH does have head start though
> ETH does have head start though
On Coin Maximalism:
Incoherent to be a maximalist of any coin, basically joining a club at that point considers it a form of cope exercise. Sees coin maximalism more common in US vs Asia
Incoherent to be a maximalist of any coin, basically joining a club at that point considers it a form of cope exercise. Sees coin maximalism more common in US vs Asia
Can other coins replace ETH as store of value:
> Wouldn’t rule anything out, but it is a tough road to follow, only a few coins will survive this path so we will see a similar trend in a few years, so hard to say.
> Wouldn’t rule anything out, but it is a tough road to follow, only a few coins will survive this path so we will see a similar trend in a few years, so hard to say.
What is next?
> Seeing crypto denialists coming into the space
> Large funds shifting % of portfolio into Crypto which legitimizes entire space
> We will see a whole new set of natural buyers
> In few years ~7% of all HF assets will go into Crypto assets (pure long)
> Seeing crypto denialists coming into the space
> Large funds shifting % of portfolio into Crypto which legitimizes entire space
> We will see a whole new set of natural buyers
> In few years ~7% of all HF assets will go into Crypto assets (pure long)
US Regulation:
> There is now regulation in US making it harder for big tech firms to do M&A, more so than crypto regulation
> Regulatory moves towards big tech will lead to more decentralization, DAOs, Defi and it will be very interesting to see it play out
> There is now regulation in US making it harder for big tech firms to do M&A, more so than crypto regulation
> Regulatory moves towards big tech will lead to more decentralization, DAOs, Defi and it will be very interesting to see it play out
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