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Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
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18 Jun, 5 tweets, 2 min read
mdr
Putain mais quelle bande de guignols ! Expliquez moi encore une fois pourquoi je ne devrais qualifier ces types autrement ?
L'équipe de Samuel Alizon et de Mircea Sofonea ce sont les génies qui nous expliquaient il y a peu que l'effet du confinement s'était accéléré... après la fin du confinement 🤪 Autant vous dire que leurs estimations sont très fiables...
En bref, au moment où il est devenu indiscutable que les modèles épidémiologiques utilisés pour faire des projections n'avaient aucune valeur prédictive, le Monde a décidé qu'on pouvait les utiliser pour estimer combien de morts un confinement il y a quelques mois aurait évité 🙃
Les épidémiologistes sont un peu comme des conseillers en investissement qui t'ont fait perdre une fortune et qui t'expliquent ensuite combien tu aurais gagné si tu avais écouté leurs conseils plus tôt... Ils prédisent le passé avec une précision d'horloger.

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More from @phl43

Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
18 Jun
The same thing sometimes happens to me. People don't think I really believe some of the things I claim to believe. I think it's because when you think something is obvious, you tend not to read arguments to the contrary, so you don't realize it's not as obvious as you think.
I think very few things are genuinely obvious, and those which are tend to be uninteresting, otherwise they wouldn't really be obvious. Something that initially attracted me toward philosophy is that it forced you to think carefully about why someone might disagree with you.
It was also a source of disappointment once I was in the field, because I realized that, on some issues (basically anything political broadly construed), so many professional philosophers lived in a bubble and were saying a lot of stupid shit because they never did that.
Read 4 tweets
Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
18 Jun
MLH: "Would it fair to say, based on your expertise, that white people are psychopathic?"

AK: "I think so, yeah."

🤪
I repeat myself, but the most offensive thing about that kind of stuff isn't the racism (although it is racist and you shouldn't let anyone tell you otherwise), but just how mind-blowingly STUPID it is.
Her argument is that, among other things, white people lie all the time and the example she gives when asked by MLH is that we say that Columbus "discovered" America even though people already lived there and we massacred them. These people teach at university for Christ's sake.
Read 5 tweets
Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
24 May
It's been really painful to watch the reactions to this story, which as this thread notes has all the usual red flags (people never learn), but the worse part may be that, depending on the details, *even if the story is true*, it could be totally uninteresting.
As I noted previously, more than 1,000 people work at the WIV, so even if 3 people got symptoms compatible with COVID-19 in November, that would be less than 0.3% of the staff. Would that be surprising? Well, it depends on details the story doesn't give. necpluribusimpar.net/did-china-lie-…
In the US, the CDC estimates that ~8% of the population gets sick because they are infected by the flu each year on average. For influenza-like illnesses (ILI) in general it must be significantly more. It's probably about the same in China. cdc.gov/flu/about/keyf…
Read 41 tweets
Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
23 May
At least I didn't suffer in vain. Image
Getting Rcpp sugar to work with data that were created with RcppArmadillo is a huge pain, though hopefully it's just because I had never used Rcpp before and it will be easier next time, but it's worth it.
I hadn't realized that R was so fucking slow with loops. I guess now every time I have a routine using loops that can't easily be vectorized, and I need it for computationally intensive tasks, I'm writing that little bastard in C right away.
Read 6 tweets
Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
21 Apr
I've heard this objection over and over again in response to my argument that lockdowns don't pass a cost-benefit test and it's such an obvious non-sequitur that it just baffles me that people keep raising it. marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolu… Image
The idea is that, if lockdowns don't make a big difference because voluntary behavior changes have a similar effect on transmission, they also don't make a big difference on people's well-being because people are going to do the same thing no matter what.
But that's a non-sequitur because the fact that state-enforced lockdowns don't have a large effect on transmission beyond what voluntary behavior changes would achieve in the absence of government interventions doesn't mean that people behave in the same way under a lockdown.
Read 5 tweets
Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
17 Apr
I'm very happy to announce that my paper has been accepted for publication by the European Journal of Epidemiology.
Folks, before you take this seriously (although in a sense it’s very serious), I recommend that you actually read the abstract 😄
The worst part is that I could totally write that paper. The modeling itself would only take 30 minutes, but the really fun part would be the write-up.
Read 4 tweets

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