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Lakshya Jain Profile picture
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19 Jun, 4 tweets, 2 min read
The best way to illustrate how the 2020 electorate was way more R-favorable than any recent election, midterm or presidential, is this:

2020 was D+4.46. Applying 2020 latent demographic partisanship and turnout to...
2010: D+7.7
2012: D+5.5
2014: D+4.8
2016: D+5.4
2018: D+8.1
Also if you like things like this go follow @notkavi and our bot @bot_2024 — kavi does a lot of great modeling and work and programmed the bulk of that bot.
As I said in the replies to the original thread, I think the lack of demographics available to our bot (because of a lack of data) makes this estimation a bit susceptible to favoring Dems too much in some elections, but the overall picture is largely correct.
FWIW, the turnout edge I have modeled is 2% in margin among white voters. I think that’s what the bot’s average actually ends up being near, if lower by a half percent or so.

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Lakshya Jain Profile picture
18 Jun
Let's put this in simpler terms.

The two-way vote share, per Catalist, was ~R+12 with white voters in 2020. The white vote in a midterm would probably be ~R+10 or thereabouts, if we adjusted for voting propensity and assumed zero vote switching.
That *does* help Democrats a bit! But to take advantage of it, you need to make sure your base turns out, and this is still prone to the issue that white college voters who are Democratic may turn out at different rate from white college voters that are Republicans.
This is not meant to be a hard and fast quantification of everything. It's just meant to show that there is a real, somewhat quantifiable educational turnout edge based on recent history for Democrats, and that they could certainly use this to their benefit.
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
18 Jun
A very rough estimate, but I'd say that Democrats probably have a ~1.5%-2% education turnout edge in the midterm electorate among *white voters*, using 2020 support numbers from Catalist and 2018/2016 turnout data (filtered for state house districts that are >75% white). Image
Important to note a few things here:

(1) there is a clear correlation between education and turnout, especially among white voters, and that was only magnified in 2020.
(2) This is a rough estimate because the granularity of data available here doesn't support anything more.
It's pretty critical to note that persuasion is far more important in influencing the electoral environment. That is to say that voters changing their mind is generally way more influential than a 1.5% turnout edge in *margin* (which is what this estimate is measuring in!)
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
4 Jun
(1) People underestimate how much time most bills take to get anywhere. The GOP didn't get their healthcare vote until the last week of July.

(2) Biden's not going to abandon everything they wanted in the compromise bill when they've already hinted at reconciliation for the rest
I keep seeing the "Manchin and Sinema" argument, and my answer to this is that the opposition to a lot of things is almost never just Joe Manchin, as the Post said the other day. This caucus isn't as liberal on every issue as Twitter likes to think it is.
Suffice to say that when Manchin has already said that they should go to 4T for infrastructure previously, it's not like he's just abandoned the idea of $$ flooding into WV. And I would be very, very surprised if the Democrats didn't use reconciliation for the rest like they said
Read 5 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
2 Jun
Would have been insane to even suggest this a year ago, but the United States' pandemic response has been absolutely stellar from an economic POV.
Since January, the response has been incredible from a public health POV as well; it cannot be overstated as to just how good the Biden administration has been in terms of vaccine rollout and distribution, which has undoubtedly contributed heavily to the rapid rebound
you can't have sustained economic growth without the virus actually fading out, which only happens through good public health policy, so the Biden admin deserves a lot of credit for that *and* the ARP. That one-two combination has been incredible and extremely consequential.
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
2 Jun
One last note on #NM01 -- Democrats saw absolutely no "suburban reversion" against them, but they did see Hispanics come back to some degree; Stansbury improved on Biden's margins across the board.

But it's important to remember that they outspent the GOP by several degrees here
You can't win elections without spending money at some level. Without a high-dollar race at some level that defines the party and environment, you're going to see a lot more importance placed on spending as a result. It's a big reason Democrats got destroyed in #TX06 as well.
If it's any comfort, Democrats are not going to be lacking for money in this upcoming cycle in the slightest, and per @Redistrict's analysis, they do appear to represent way more wealthy suburban districts than the GOP do, which probably helps them out a lot here.
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
2 Jun
So, #NM01 is finally done counting. Stansbury wins, and the district's margin is D+24.5, which is a 1.7 point Democratic improvement on Joe Biden's margin (D+22.8). Turnout was roughly 41% of November's, making it the largest turnout special since January, by some distance.
Needless to say, that is a really, really positive results for Democrats, who massively outspent the GOP on this race and saw themselves rewarded for it. Stansbury improved across the board on Biden's margins and blew Haaland's D+16.4 margin out of the water.
Flatly, the GOP didn't turn out, and unaffiliated folks don't seem to have penalized the Democrats for Biden being in the White House (surprise!! not really), as Stansbury appears to have won the NPAs by a bit more than Biden did.
Read 4 tweets

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