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Lakshya Jain Profile picture
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2 Jun, 4 tweets, 2 min read
So, #NM01 is finally done counting. Stansbury wins, and the district's margin is D+24.5, which is a 1.7 point Democratic improvement on Joe Biden's margin (D+22.8). Turnout was roughly 41% of November's, making it the largest turnout special since January, by some distance.
Needless to say, that is a really, really positive results for Democrats, who massively outspent the GOP on this race and saw themselves rewarded for it. Stansbury improved across the board on Biden's margins and blew Haaland's D+16.4 margin out of the water.
Flatly, the GOP didn't turn out, and unaffiliated folks don't seem to have penalized the Democrats for Biden being in the White House (surprise!! not really), as Stansbury appears to have won the NPAs by a bit more than Biden did.
My final race prediction, last night and today, was D+23, but I did mention I'd take the over on it if forced to. This race was extremely unlikely to ever go below D+20, from all the data we saw; it was really just a question of whether Stansbury would outrun Biden, which she did

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More from @lxeagle17

Lakshya Jain Profile picture
4 Jun
(1) People underestimate how much time most bills take to get anywhere. The GOP didn't get their healthcare vote until the last week of July.

(2) Biden's not going to abandon everything they wanted in the compromise bill when they've already hinted at reconciliation for the rest
I keep seeing the "Manchin and Sinema" argument, and my answer to this is that the opposition to a lot of things is almost never just Joe Manchin, as the Post said the other day. This caucus isn't as liberal on every issue as Twitter likes to think it is.
Suffice to say that when Manchin has already said that they should go to 4T for infrastructure previously, it's not like he's just abandoned the idea of $$ flooding into WV. And I would be very, very surprised if the Democrats didn't use reconciliation for the rest like they said
Read 5 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
2 Jun
Would have been insane to even suggest this a year ago, but the United States' pandemic response has been absolutely stellar from an economic POV.
Since January, the response has been incredible from a public health POV as well; it cannot be overstated as to just how good the Biden administration has been in terms of vaccine rollout and distribution, which has undoubtedly contributed heavily to the rapid rebound
you can't have sustained economic growth without the virus actually fading out, which only happens through good public health policy, so the Biden admin deserves a lot of credit for that *and* the ARP. That one-two combination has been incredible and extremely consequential.
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
2 Jun
One last note on #NM01 -- Democrats saw absolutely no "suburban reversion" against them, but they did see Hispanics come back to some degree; Stansbury improved on Biden's margins across the board.

But it's important to remember that they outspent the GOP by several degrees here
You can't win elections without spending money at some level. Without a high-dollar race at some level that defines the party and environment, you're going to see a lot more importance placed on spending as a result. It's a big reason Democrats got destroyed in #TX06 as well.
If it's any comfort, Democrats are not going to be lacking for money in this upcoming cycle in the slightest, and per @Redistrict's analysis, they do appear to represent way more wealthy suburban districts than the GOP do, which probably helps them out a lot here.
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
1 Jun
Early voting metrics provide a window rather than an exact measurement. That said, I think it's fair to say that the electorate for #NM01 is between D+22 and D+26 at the time of the last data drop (2PM MST) from @Alexrosstweets; I'd split the difference at D+24.
This will almost certainly shrink significantly; the question is just how much. I believe the result window we're looking at is between D+18 and D+24. My prediction is D+22, but that's really a rough estimation, so take it w/ a grain of salt
literally all of these estimates are just that: estimates. I could be horribly, horribly wrong and it wouldn't be the first time. standard disclaimer that if you're using it for betting advice or whatever, that's entirely on you because I don't recommend that.
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
1 Jun
Alright, folks, we've got a special election today in #NM01. The early vote appears to be ~D+28 based on partisan affiliation, so what can we expect for the results? I'll break it down in this thread below.
For the sake of this exercise, we'll assume that party registration matches up with voting preference.

Via Alex Ross, we see that Democrats hold a substantial edge in both the mail and the early in-person vote. With a 50/50 NPA skew, that'd be a D+28 EV.
Let's crank it up and play out different NPA scenarios.

If NPAs skew...

60/40 GOP: D+25.8
70/30 GOP: D+23.4 EV
60/40 Dem: D+30.3
70/30 Dem: D+32.6
Read 10 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
31 May
A notion that a lot of Twitter seems set on is that few educated whites who voted for Trump in 2020 could possibly vote Democratic in 2024, especially if Kamala Harris is the nominee. Trouble is, this ignores that voters often move based on factors beyond just the candidates.
Now, it's true that one of the biggest factors for individual candidates is the national environment they induce, and everything else now largely flows from it.

The question is, is the national environment Harris induces substantially different from the one Biden induces?
There's an argument for this, in that Harris seems to poll worse than Biden right now. But four years in the vice presidency can do a *lot* for image, and if polarization increases, candidate quality might begin to matter even less, narrowing the gap more.
Read 5 tweets

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