Yesterday, @DavidGauke told me he thinks the Conservative vote in the South East is soft. And it was striking, talking to voters in Chesham and Amersham, how so much of the language used about the Conservative party in the south is reminiscent of voters about Labour in the north.
Almost word for word- talk of taking voters for granted, needing a change, neglecting safe seats; it's an intriguing sort of deep incumbency malaise for both parties. Boris Johnson comes up as well as does Brexit, both as an event and a cultural signifier it hasn't gone away.
Difference obviously in remain voting areas of the south east they're negatives for the Conservatives with opposite being the case in much of the north and midlands.
Clear opportunity for the Lib Dems (and in places Greens) in middle class areas in the south, in places for Labour too. Problem for Labour isn't the much remarked upon collapse in their vote in C&A (the best chance of even a Lab minority administration at next election is a...
...LD resurgence in the south) but the fact that they're not the sole beneficiary of a realignment in south as the Conservatives are in the north. Likewise that the realignment in the south is still nascent compared to the north and Tories still relatively strong everywhere.
Risk for Labour is continued anaemic situation that they have at the moment where there's a general net realignment away from the party.
Judge for yourself, yesterday's piece from Chesham and Amersham, produced by @MattQuinton can be viewed here.
Judge for yourself, yesterday's piece from Chesham and Amersham, produced by @MattQuinton can be viewed here.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
