In terms of potential Johnson/Sunak problems, was surely inevitable. You have a PM significantly reorienting Conservatism and Conservative political economy in a firmly statist and high spending direction alongside perhaps the final Osbornite in the Cabinet as Chancellor.
That alongside classic Treasury/Number 10 tensions which happen in every government- Treasury naturally resists spending demands. But this exacerbated by the extent of PM’s wants/necessities of Covid.
But the very different political instincts on these matters between occupants of Nos 10 and 11 was always a curiosity at the heart of this government and an obvious structural point of potential tension or fissure.
NB we should remember that PM is much more interested in certain types of spending than in others (big infrastructure over welfare or education catch up, viz No10 backing Sunak over Collins reforms) and that on current plans departmental expenditure is actually very tight.
Indeed, the March budget outlined £15bn of departmental spending cuts. Austerity in many departments is continuing.
Essentially, depending on where you look in the government, you can see the significantly contrasting thinking on spending of the occupants of No10 and No 11. Question is whether they can effectively co-exist and who, ultimately, is going to defer to whom.
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French regional elections: worse result than expected for Marine Le Pen’s RN (imagine how much we’d hear if she’d done better). Republicains (centre right) having a decent night- Macron’s En Marche failing to put down regional roots. Big winner? Abstentionism- turnout only 32%.
Turnout was 49.9% when these elections were last fought in 2015. Go back to the late 89s and it was nearly 80%
Worse polling suggests that the pandemic wasn’t the main reason why.
One survey suggests only 16% of French aged 18-24 voted and only 19% of 25-34.
Taken together the parties of the left have about 34% of the vote. LR alone has 29.3% and RN 19%. In 2015 Le Pen’s Party scored nearly 28% in the first round.
Macron’s Party on 10.9%
Socialists down on last time but Greens more than doubled their vote.
Yesterday, @DavidGauke told me he thinks the Conservative vote in the South East is soft. And it was striking, talking to voters in Chesham and Amersham, how so much of the language used about the Conservative party in the south is reminiscent of voters about Labour in the north.
Almost word for word- talk of taking voters for granted, needing a change, neglecting safe seats; it's an intriguing sort of deep incumbency malaise for both parties. Boris Johnson comes up as well as does Brexit, both as an event and a cultural signifier it hasn't gone away.
Difference obviously in remain voting areas of the south east they're negatives for the Conservatives with opposite being the case in much of the north and midlands.
Loads of tactical voting- Labour vote collapses in favour of Lib Dems. But also clearly huge Tory-LD transference.
The word sensational is overused in elections but I’m struggling to think of a more staggering one than this. When I say this has been Tory since 1974 that’s because the seat was created in 1974. In one way or another, the seat has basically been Tory since universal suffrage.
...,not confined to but put on steroids by Brexit and the Protocol which flowed from it.
Foster and the senior leadership of the DUP are blamed by many loyalists (especially the harder line elements on which the party's support traditionally rested) for allowing the Protocol...
...to come about and for being so closely identified with the Conservative party and especially Boris Johnson, who unceremoniously ditched the party as a means of getting a Brexit deal.
For many unionists the Protocol is an affront. They see the economic border...
Remember Poots was instrumental in forcing Foster out. Now he too has gone.
Much bigger than the fate of the DUP. Deep instability within power sharing. Poots’ nominee for First Minister was literally installed today.
Now what authority does Paul Givan have? Can he stay in office? And if he resigns will the executive collapse? And given Poots has been driven out effectively as a result of his decision to keep power sharing going, the possibility for his successor to maintain the Exec is slight