The heavily discussed MA 50 vs MA 200 Death Cross and why it is not what they are trying to sell you
โช๏ธ What is it supposed to be?
โช๏ธ Is it really a sell signal?
โช๏ธ What truly happens?
โช๏ธ The takeaways from Death Cross?
THREAD
1/13
โช๏ธ What is it supposed to be?
The death cross is a TA pattern indicating the potential for a major sell-off.
It appears on a chart when a simple short-term 50 moving average crosses below its long-term 200 moving average.
Indicating you should sell your position.
2/13
โช๏ธ Is it really a sell signal?
Well, that's at least what the "puppeteer" want you to believe.
Truth be told moving averages are a powerful tool when used in the right way.
This is not one of those situations and I will show you exactly why.
3/13
First of all, we must understand that moving averages are all lagging indicators.
They are good for showing a trend when the price is above/below them however the cross itself is lagging information and by itself provides very little value
4/13
โช๏ธ What truly happens?
Let's have a closer look at the history of the #Bitcoin death crosses.
The First Death Cross in the history of #BTC price appears in April 2014.
A sell signal as they would try to tell you. What happens afterward? 100% rally...
5/13
Later on that year we are given a "Life Cross".
What happens afterward? Price dumps...
Followed by another Death Cross this time it luckily works, however only after faking the first two times & in the very early stages of #Bitcoin. Let's move on.
6/13
After the biggest bear market in #BTC history, we finally get Life Cross in July 2015 next year.
What happens? You'd be buying the local top before price dumps another 40%
Followed by a Death Cross in September same year. That would literally make you sell the bottom
7/13
We don't get another Death Cross till the infamous 2018 bear market.
It's March 2018 and we finally get it. What happens? You'd sell the bottom once again and price goes on to run 50%
8/13
OK moving onto another Death Cross in October 2019
What happens? Death Cross approaches, you sell the bottom, price rallies 40%
Followed by a Life Cross and crash of 60%
Followed by literally selling the bottom at 6000$ before we head into the 2020 bull market.
9/13
Moving onto the present day and we are facing another infamous Death Cross
Well if history teaches us anything it's that it's actually more of a bullish than bearish signal.
A 40-50% rally from here wouldn't surprise me at all.
10/13
โช๏ธ The takeaways from Death Cross?
As you can clearly see the cross by itself doesn't mean much at all & it's almost the opposite of what they are trying to tell you
If anything it shows that the current macro trend has been paused and will take some time to recover
11/13
Overall the first death cross prices have been a great place to buy in the long run.
An important takeaway from this is that the Death/Life Cross by itself doesn't hold much importance as it is heavily lagging behind price and there are far better tools to use.
12/13
Hope you have found this thread once again valuable & you won't get tricked so easily this time
Please consider liking & sharing it with your friends. It's gonna help me create more of these educational threads & help your friends to get better at this game. Thank you ๐
It made sense to stay ๐ on #Bitcoin as long as the trend & range were holding & equities were going up but now it has lost its MS after 130 days of ๐ฆ PA & we need to adapt
I'll break down all the facts you need for all scenarios in understandable language below ๐
1/18 ๐งต
When it comes to bullish/bearish posts it always comes down to TimeFrames. You can have a trader that is bullish on H1 screaming at a bearish trader on D1 while the Weekly trader is bullish again
It makes no sense & we need to analyze each one differently to understand the TF ๐
The macro view, which is like a Monthly to somewhat Weekly, remains bullish, while Weekly down to Daily is now bearish
The M1/W1 TF remains bullish as long as the 39K low is holding but locally we can be bear-bleeding for some time as the 130 days long #BTC range was lost
You don't wanna miss this #Bitcoin alpha thread ๐งต๐
#BTC around 50K is still within a strong value area
Lots of people sidelined, waiting for a bigger correction will miss out
Data from Financial Advisors across the US are suggesting big future upside
1/20
Read below๐
First of all, I did expect we would get the upside we got from the 40-45K range, but after, I thought we would get a deeper pullback at some point to like 32K or so
I do not think that anymore
Below is the original thread worth your time to read through
No emotional bias, just truth bombs full of data & mainly my own context โ
Both bullish & bearish arguments - HTF to LTF
Hit like & Bookmark to keep this plan in the back of your mind
Let's get to it ๐
1/25
We start HTF, scale in & create the valuable context ๐
So my thesis has been & is still the same throughout the whole of 2023, that we move above the so important psychological level of March 22 high, sitting at 48K, distribute above & pullback
๐งต Big thread on INTEREST RATES around the Western economies & their future projections & implications on the markets
Everyone's focus is on the FED funds rate but by understanding all of them we get a much clearer picture of where the FED is heading ๐ก
Let's dive in ๐
1/22
As you can see from the picture, central banks in Western economies tend to move the interest rates on average in a similar trend
We could even call it a consensus
However, some are frontrunners & some laggards and by comparing them all, we can get a general idea of the trend
Each economy has its own factors & issues that come to play in each country of course, which is the reason why we see some deviations here & there on a lower quarterly or yearly scale. But the general trend stays
So why is it that they all move together on average? ๐