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David Henig Profile picture
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20 Jun, 5 tweets, 2 min read
I'm not sufficiently expert on the steel industry to know whether we should or shouldn't have protections in place - the big point is that thanks to the absence of a trade strategy we have no coherent basis for making such a decision. A recurring theme. theguardian.com/business/2021/…
Similar issue on agriculture - many simplist claims on protectionism v free trade from government supporters, a reality of complex decisions with multiple factors from UK food protection to animal welfare and climate change, none apparently particularly well considered.
The biggest problem UK trade policy faces is a lack of understanding of a modern economy, and what the UK should build. An interconnected highly regulated modern economy being presided over by ministers who mostly think free trade equals lower tariffs, and regulations are bad.
The breathless excitability about how an Australia trade deal was struck miss a crucial point that we did the deal to do a deal and get a headline, they did the deal as part of a strategy appropriate to their production. The "Cows for photo ops" deal. spectator.co.uk/article/reveal…
Trade policy then rather like the front page of the Sunday Times regarding government spending - many promises being made which are often both not well thought through and not easily deliverable. The classic Johnson modus operandi of government disguised as Ealing comedy.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
22 Jun
Still economically trivial for the UK to join the CPTPP given we have or will have trade deals with all who have currently ratified, it is biased towards supply chains in, er the Pacific, and expanding the text is unlikely. But mostly harmless as well. gov.uk/government/new…
In global trade terms the likes of Canada, Japan, New Zealand, Chile are likely to have similar views to the UK, though unclear whether the latter, or Malaysia, will in fact ever ratify CPTPP is an issue. There are only 7 active members of CPTPP. fta.miti.gov.my/index.php/page…
There are issues with CPTPP text. Most particularly it includes the controversial Investor State Dispute Settlement, and there is a clash with the European Patent Convention which may cause damage to the UK's patent sector if we withdraw from the latter. committees.parliament.uk/publications/6…
Read 14 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
21 Jun
That the UK needs a coherent trade strategy has been obvious since Brexit. But coherence between competing policy objectives is not something this government does. So farmers will have to follow regulations and imports will not. And que sera sera. ft.com/content/da40fe…
For some years of course the government didn't want to admit there could be problems with trade deals, or indeed how complex they were, as this might suggest Brexit wasn't going to be an easy walk to a land paved with gold. But what's the excuse now?
In the absence of a trade strategy or even much of a conversation we have to regard UK agreements or decisions as provisional, which isn't much use for building up exports or attracting inward investment.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
21 Jun
A small nugget in a Times interview of Liz Truss on Saturday, in which she said "we're not going to be in the business of EU-style regulatory imperialism... telling other countries how to run their farms" is a strong message behind which lies continued UK trade confusion... 1/
First, is the EU guilty of "regulatory imperialism"? The Brussels Effect of EU regulations becoming global norms was not a deliberate process, but increasingly the EU would like to make it so, meaning yes to a degree. But more on industrial goods than agriculture. 2/
The EU's "regulatory imperialism" on agriculture is to insist strongly on geographical indications in trade deals. Which the UK has followed in fact. Now the US, there's a country that has pursued "regulatory imperialism" in insisting other allow their food products in FTAs... 3/
Read 9 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
21 Jun
Strikingly optimistic take on US-EU relations from @MESandbu. Certainly we can take encouragement from summit outcomes last week, but with so many areas of difference on trade, and different takes on China, maintaining progress will be difficult. ft.com/content/3d3894…
Arguably the recent history of US-EU relations is one of optimistic announcements of new structures followed by disappointment as officials fail to find common ground on the detail. Question then as to whether that is different this time.
Reasons to be optimistic over transatlantic relations this time - Biden's clear determination to forge a common front over China. Reasons to be pessimistic - US domestic interests for whom fighting the EU on regulatory detail is more important than China.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
19 Jun
The UK has been pushing something between equivalence and dynamic alignment for five years with the whole EU - essentially the less onerous responsibilities of the former combined with the market access of the latter. Or cakeism as it came to be known. Still, talk is good, and...
Every time I see a minister make a false reference to the ECJ like this one you wonder if a climbdown is in the air. The UK 'wins' no ECJ oversight that there was never going to be, and the EU graciously allows the kind of alignment always on offer that will reduce checks.
Ultimately for agricultural trade the equation is the EU has detailed rules and tough checks applied to all countries, but third countries able to build up trust in their food production systems can gain equivalence agreements and other easements. So a choice for the UK...
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
18 Jun
The UK government needs to stop hiding behind nebulous concepts such as equivalence and actually engage with what is needed to support exports across all sectors to our nearest large market. theguardian.com/business/2021/…
By now it should be obvious that Free Trade Agreements with the promise of zero tariffs do not of themselves provide a sufficient framework for supporting exports particularly of food and drink. Because of regulatory and customs checks, and much more besides.
There's also a deeper conversation to be had about the UK economy, given the loss of free trade and free movement. That's not to adopt a 'we're doomed' attitude, but to point out that change is inevitable. Is anyone in government planning for this beyond gimmicry?
Read 6 tweets

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