Effectiveness as in “improving Lu omg standard for the majority 1.4b mainland Chinese, and closing the gap between the ever growing demand for social equality and solving conflicts of unbalanced development among diff regions”
China is a crepe cake 🍰 not like US is a pizzas 🍕
CCP’s role is NOT servant to its people, but the head of the family
So lifting up majority out of poverty and keep a unity is always the top priority, which can undermine a certain progressive group’s interest
君君臣臣父父子子 philosophy is rooted so hard in most Chinese’s DNA
The governance/people fit result in a mighty central gov, highly efficient in social resource mobility and allocation, superb in war time/crisis/brute force development
but down side are lack of originality/innovation, homogeneity in human capital, lack of tolerance in diversity
By looking at the result, the Chinese operating system has been doing really well for past 30 years
Like it or not, economically wise it will continue its advantages for this decade/coming decade imo: more flexibility in monetary policies, de-dollarization, massive domestic mkt
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What to expect as the last strike in this rolling adversity, a reasonable guess and what can be the worst case
A thread 🧵
Hashrate redistribution (happening)
Hashrate has dropped 1/3 since the VP memo, this might be first time of such a big scale of hashrate plummet considering miner are not forced out economically (as designed by PoW game theory in most “real bottom”)
Mining is profitable for Bitcoin at 30k even with ATH hashrate. whoever can still turn the miners on are literally printing as total hashrate drops so much but reward stays the same
economic incentive will drive hashrate redistribute as soon as capacity is available out of China
Thought experiment: imaging impact of shutting down OTC in mainland it’s the same as shutting down fiat on/off ramp of USD in the US (ie Coinbase and all other closes out banking wire)
Chinese crypto players can only exchange back to fiat over clumsy peer to peer manner 1/
approx Huobi OTC daily volume accordingly to its former employee was over $500m on daily basis (very dated data in 2019, not sure abt 2021) and there are many other tier 2 OTC match making sites like OK/gate/Bixin etc so combine together are the fiat volumes in mainland 2/
The aggregated size of this semi illegal foreign ex behavior does impose threat to the overall cap control policy under CCP regime, so a tight shut down is totally expected anyway (partner with ultra strict banking scrutiny)
Permissionless is highly undervalued and not being mentioned enough. Especially in the context of an eastern society where kids growing up in permission-only setup
Any permissionless movement is a liberty movement
Prior to the internet, you are only permitted to read the permitted information from permissioned channels such as newspapers and TV
All are pre-filtered and editorial content with highly skewed information and data collections
Today even tho there is algo driven echo chamber on social media, but access to information and publishing is relatively permissionless
(assuming you have free access to the broader internet, even in China VPN is common know-how for its educated netizens already)
And happy 15 years anniversary of my college entrance exam, the remarkable moment serving as the pivotal event of the first half of my life 15*2
Threw a house party tn with college friends so many nostalgic throwbacks
Tomorrow is the 1st day of the first post COVID college entrance exam in the mainland aka 高考 GAO KAO a few days of intense test marathon of all subjects
It’s the 3 days of “fate defining” moments of many Chinese kids
The core ethos of entire CCP governance is around “social stability” so 2 things violates it when it comes to #Bitcoin 1. capital outflow 2. Speculative behavior on the trading side
1/
”summoning top executives to a meeting that threatened severe punishment for violations ranging from excessive speculation to spreading fake news”
If we are to take this out the context it applies to pretty much all financial sectors in China where speculation can be induced
2/
Chinese retail are highly speculative making China A shares the largely retail dominated equity market on earth, result in a 20 yr of PnD chart unlike S&P’s up only
CCP’s tolerance of severe negative social news like retail investors suucie due to high lev trade is ZERO
3/
Might be hosting a space room in Twitter tomorrow morning PST and will try grab a few other insiders to share what’s going on and what’s possibly going on in China, how does it differ than sep 2017 etc