We all know we're in a range. This range is defined by the $30K Low on the 19th of May and the $43K High made on the same day.
2/10
During this range we've seen sentiment shift from bearish to bullish after each few percent move. Which is very common during such sideways market movements.
3/10
What's especially interesting is how most people tend to call for a sweep of the range highs or lows, once price approaches that level. Be it up or down.
4/10
This makes sense, we're used to seeing these levels get swept and for price to reverse afterwards. This is because a lot of stop losses are often placed above or below these lows and a sweep of those levels usually generate a lot of liquidity.
What's funny in this range is that so far, price has reversed within the 10-20% & 80-90% area on both sides. What this means is that people waiting for those sweeps never get their fills and others, that are in the correct trade for that move, miss their take profit levels.
6/10
In return, most people keep buying and selling at the wrong times or holding their profitable positions until they are in loss again. All because price just isn't reaching "The Logical" targets everyone is assuming.
7/10
This is why most people are being destroyed trying to trade this range.
Panic selling on the way down, hoping for lower. Then fomo'ing back in on the way up. Likely timing it wrong every single time.
8/10
That's what ranges do. Especially such a big range where so much money is changing hands every day.
Be careful out there. Stick to the plan and don't get too caught up in the range.
If price starts trading above or below it for a while, THAT is your confirmation.
9/10
Also, the 10-20% and the 80-90% area's are just some numbers I cherry picked to fit into this scenario to prove my point. These aren't fib levels or proven to work for trades. Please don't see them as an indicator to base your investments on.
Have a good week!
10/10
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Disclaimer: I understand it's not that simple and markets move this way. I'm also quite new to all this macro stuff. Just some thoughts.
What I find funny is how the FEDs said they weren't worried at all and then the May CPI numbers hit and we saw the highest inflation numbers in over a decade.
Now all of the sudden they will increase rates an entire year earlier to battle this.
Even though they weren't worried, right?
On this news, of course the dollar rallies and equities & other things sell off. Which is all very normal in terms of market movements.
Took out the first high and in doing that, also made a tiny higher high on the daily which is promising for a further reversal.
We did open up with a CME gap, these don't have to fill but they often do.
1/5
Having said that, not coming back to fill the gap, would once again leave a lot of people behind which wouldn't surprise me either. Just keep it in mind.
I do believe we will take out the other highs at $40.8 and $42.5K soon enough.
2/5
We've only seen $367M in short liquidations yesterday. This isn't nearly as much as we should see during a proper short squeeze after being down here for a few weeks with negative funding.
I expect the most to occur when breaching that last 42.5K level.
I see many new people come on CT and get confused by everything that’s going on in here.
Many of us on here are traders so don’t let these short term predictions, be it up or down, trouble your own long term vision and believe too much.
1/6
I may not be bearish myself currently but I think I can speak for most people when I say that the people that are bearish here are only short/mid term bearish.
I doubt many of them are bearish on Bitcoin and Crypto as a whole for the years and decades to come.
2/6
It’s up to you to form your own ideas about the market and what timeframe you’re investing over.
Don’t let me, or anyone else influence you with our analysis for the next day or week. Especially if you were planning to hold for years to come.
3/6