+UPDATE+

Grouping of EU states led by France to ensure steep reduction in UK TV productions becomes EU policy.

UK TV is seen as “overrepresented” as it ran under EU content rules despite being oft internationally funded.

In future UK TV will have to have majority EU content.
2/

By European content this means programs made in the EU.

This is likely to see an increase of “British productions” made (or majority made) in the EU.
3/

There is no real need for the EU to show as much UK produced TV on its screens as say US or Australian.
4/

Given Ireland’s unique position as both inside EU but also with shared travel areas and language with the UK - this could be a god chance for more British TV to be shot in Ireland and count as EU under European content rules.
5/

Oh this is interesting:

theguardian.com/world/2021/jun…

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More from @nicktolhurst

20 Jun
+UPDATE+

A number of Conservative MPs in southern “LibDem facing” seats have already told Conservative HQ they believe their 2019 election results “won’t be repeated” as the fear of Jeremy Corbyn getting in suppressed LibDem votes at the last election.

1/
Tory MPs in these areas think Starmer is effectively copying the 1997 election strategy whereby soft Tory areas go LibDem.

While “defusing” the Brexit issue in leave voting trad. labour seats where Tory gains in midland/north are expected to melt as Tory-Brexit reality sets in.
3/

Also the logic is that the demographic/social change in places like SW London & Buckinghamshire was already going on before Brexit but that Corbyn “suppressed” this vote.

In other words quite a large number of southern leafy seats are “ready to drop” with the right strategy.
Read 6 tweets
19 Jun
Can't see the article.

Anybody know what points are here raised?
So had a look.

I try not to be harsh but the problem here is EVERYONE who has spent time on this issue dismisses idea of it working in Scotland.

Indeed I’ve done so since years for the very obvious reason:
Scottish voters cleave two ways:
Unionism/Indy
Prog/conservative

So..
So for someone to use Scotland as an argument for “why a prog alliance wouldn’t work” is basically saying that he hasn’t been paying attention.

Nobody working on this uses Scotland.

Secondly…
Read 6 tweets
19 Jun
There's basically 3 ways a UK govt can show its population “Brexit was the right choice”

1. A post-Brexit UK economic boom
2. EU collapses

Nobody sane thinks the 1st will happen, while the 2nd is extremely unlikely & beyond UK’s control in any case. Which leaves one other way…
2/

The other option would be to engineer continual grievance with, & of, the EU…& Europeans in general.

In this scenario “Brexit can never be finished” as otherwise this would not enable it’s eternal struggle against Europeans attempt to “thwart British success”.
3/

One suspects therefore that even if the Irish protocol didn’t exist, the UK govt would have to invent another issue to consume the populace.

As a Brexit that is finished…is one that is shown to have not delivered what was promised.
Read 4 tweets
18 Jun
Congratulations everyone in Chesham & Amersham!

Brilliant result for the LibDems!

But more importantly Labour voters did us proud.

One of the most disciplined examples of tactical voting ever.
Sky news report

Tactical voting gives supposedly solid blue seat to LibDems.

news.sky.com/story/lib-dems…
It was clear LibDems were going to do well. But I have to be honest I had it down as neck & neck - not this.

I’m guessing as well as superb tactical discipline by Labour voters, analysis will show young (ie under 40s) Conservative vote now much softer than I thought.

Game on.
Read 4 tweets
17 Jun
A lot of people have dismissed the change of Israeli govt as irrelevant but as I’ve been saying for sometime Israel is rapidly moving toward a “3 thirds society”:
1. Haredi Jews
2. Israeli Arabs
3. Everyone else

The past politics *largely* based within (3) will be unsustainable.
Of course Israeli govts have depended on votes of 1st 2 groups before - but govts without them were always possible.

Soon tho Israel will reach the point that only be combining “everyone else” can a govt function without Haredi or Arab votes.

But there’s another scenario…
3/

Israeli govts will at this point start to have only 2 models:

1. Govt coalitions which will be half Haredi
or
2. Govt coalitions which will be half Arab

And then israeli politics will start to get *really* interesting..
Read 4 tweets
16 Jun
In 1995 the Serbian film „Подземље“ (Underground) was released & was a modest, if slightly controversial success.

I liked the film as a comedy about people trapped underground in an absurdist reality appealed to me.

& then recently I realised the film was really about..Britain.
Underground is loveable crudity, slapstick & serious ideas about truth. The main character, an arms dealer, hits on the idea to convince people sheltering in a basement during WW II making weapons to fight the Germans…to believe the war is still going on…long after its ended.
3/

As Marko oversees the weapons manufacturing he is able to control time by adding hours to a day so the people in the cellar think that only 15 years passed since WW II instead of 20. They're continuously making weapons, and with this eternal labour supply he becomes rich.
Read 6 tweets

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