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18 Jun, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Congratulations everyone in Chesham & Amersham!

Brilliant result for the LibDems!

But more importantly Labour voters did us proud.

One of the most disciplined examples of tactical voting ever.
Sky news report

Tactical voting gives supposedly solid blue seat to LibDems.

news.sky.com/story/lib-dems…
It was clear LibDems were going to do well. But I have to be honest I had it down as neck & neck - not this.

I’m guessing as well as superb tactical discipline by Labour voters, analysis will show young (ie under 40s) Conservative vote now much softer than I thought.

Game on.
My guess is that the final analysis will show:

▶️ Labour voters switched tactically to LibDems

▶️ Young (under 40s) Conservative voters withheld their vote & abstained

The 2 things together was enough.

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More from @nicktolhurst

Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
19 Jun
There's basically 3 ways a UK govt can show its population “Brexit was the right choice”

1. A post-Brexit UK economic boom
2. EU collapses

Nobody sane thinks the 1st will happen, while the 2nd is extremely unlikely & beyond UK’s control in any case. Which leaves one other way…
2/
The other option would be to engineer continual grievance with, & of, the EU…& Europeans in general.

In this scenario “Brexit can never be finished” as otherwise this would not enable it’s eternal struggle against Europeans attempt to “thwart British success”.
3/
One suspects therefore that even if the Irish protocol didn’t exist, the UK govt would have to invent another issue to consume the populace.

As a Brexit that is finished…is one that is shown to have not delivered what was promised.
Read 4 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
17 Jun
A lot of people have dismissed the change of Israeli govt as irrelevant but as I’ve been saying for sometime Israel is rapidly moving toward a “3 thirds society”:
1. Haredi Jews
2. Israeli Arabs
3. Everyone else

The past politics *largely* based within (3) will be unsustainable.
Of course Israeli govts have depended on votes of 1st 2 groups before - but govts without them were always possible.

Soon tho Israel will reach the point that only be combining “everyone else” can a govt function without Haredi or Arab votes.

But there’s another scenario…
3/
Israeli govts will at this point start to have only 2 models:

1. Govt coalitions which will be half Haredi
or
2. Govt coalitions which will be half Arab

And then israeli politics will start to get *really* interesting..
Read 4 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
16 Jun
In 1995 the Serbian film „Подземље“ (Underground) was released & was a modest, if slightly controversial success.

I liked the film as a comedy about people trapped underground in an absurdist reality appealed to me.

& then recently I realised the film was really about..Britain.
Underground is loveable crudity, slapstick & serious ideas about truth. The main character, an arms dealer, hits on the idea to convince people sheltering in a basement during WW II making weapons to fight the Germans…to believe the war is still going on…long after its ended.
3/
As Marko oversees the weapons manufacturing he is able to control time by adding hours to a day so the people in the cellar think that only 15 years passed since WW II instead of 20. They're continuously making weapons, and with this eternal labour supply he becomes rich.
Read 6 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
15 Jun
+UPDATE+

Australian trade experts & media “baffled” by the 🇬🇧 🇦🇺 trade deal being touted.

The advantages for UK side seem so small that UK ministers are forced to claim the main benefit is cheaper food which is effectively mainly of benefit for the 🇦🇺 side as UK markets opened.
2/
While cheaper food is nice it will come from UK farms losing business.

Most trade deals are sold on how a deal opens up FOREIGN markets to our business.

Its unusual for govt to sell a trade deal to its population on how much it’s opened up it’s OWN market to foreigners.
3/
And by unusual here I basically mean “never”.

It’s now clear that the UK govt was so desperate for a trade deal with Australia it has effectively negotiated one that is of no real measurable economic benefit to UK but is likely to destroy British sheep & beef farming.
Read 4 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
10 Jun
+UPDATE+

The US govt issues a “formal reprimand” - a “demarche” - to the British govt over its actions in Northern Ireland & the Irish protocol.

News now leaking out suggests this - unprecedented action - went beyond normal inter govt warnings between allies.
2/
A demarche - diplomatic term for a formally communicated reprimand/warning - is normally issued at enemy states or states which have gravely injured/insulted/endangered another country.

I’m struggling to remember the last time US did this to an ally.
3/
One of the key attributes to a Demarche - apart from the communication of the gravest possible diplomatic reprimand - is that it has a formal nature, and this goes on both countries’ official records.

The import is thus unmistakable, historically recorded & clear.
Read 4 tweets
Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
8 Jun
As i've been writing on since over a year, culture war isn't some reactive policy that's sprung up.

Extensive focus group testing was done by Cummings/Johnson regime right from the start in 2019.

The aim:
All emcompassing rolling constant culture war.
It's not just about flags.
2/
Theres a widespread beief even by some remainers that sure Johnson is a charlatan, but actually "he doesn't really believe in anything", in other words his rightism is cynically pragmatic rather than personally driven.

But this is absurd when one considers who he appoints.
3/
It wasn't just Cummings who became his chief advisor. He also made his long time ally & part of the Spiked culture journalists - Munira Mirza - his Number 10 Policy Unit head.

Johnson thus cenmented the 2 most vicious right wing culture war activists at the head of govt.
Read 18 tweets

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