Prominent Iranian reformist commentator tells #ACMideast event that Raisi press conference earlier today was a disaster. That he seemed unprepared for obvious questions, and answered as if he was still a judiciary chief.
Zibakalam says some reformists think silver lining of Raisi taking presidency is that now hardliners control every power center & have no one else to blame. Said they had already been making important strategic decisions and sending Mr. Rouhani the bill
.@borzou references FP piece foreignpolicy.com/2021/06/19/the… assessing Raisi as more of an opportunist than ideologue. But Borzou says, as we know from recent US experience to, right wing opportunists just as dangerous as right wing ideologues.
Fatameh Haghighatjoo tells #acmideast she does not think that Jalili will be picked as Raisi admin foreign min. says she thinks khamenei et al “lesson learned” from ahmadinejad admin era that they don’t want tensions.

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More from @lrozen

9 Jun
🧵Jerusalem Post: Former Mossad Chief Tamir Pardo today “said it was a massive strategic error for Netanyahu to be in open conflict with the Obama and Biden administrations over Iran.” jpost.com/middle-east/ir… by @jeremybob1
Pardo “said that Netanyahu’s policy had helped push the Trump admin to leave the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which now has led to Tehran passing the 60% nuclear enrichment level.”
He accused Netanyahu of having “top notch tactics, but zero strategy.” jpost.com/middle-east/ir…
btw, re: Pardo, Sen. Tim Kaine recounted at SFRC hearing yesterday Netanyahu trying to cancel a congressional delegation briefing with Pardo, and then-SFRC chief Corker threatening to cancel all their other meetings in Israel if Netanyahu did not let it proceed. It did.
Read 5 tweets
8 Jun
The second Iranian presidential debate that just finished was very boring, says @fresh_sadegh, at SAIS Rethinking Iran panel. She got sense the candidates were cautioned from somewhere to stick to the framework, few of them directly answered the questions asked of them.
Many people are indifferent to this election, @fresh_sadegh says. Polls suggest maybe 40% turnout. A lot of reasons, main one: people are disappointed, don’t expect any change from the candidates put on the table. Of 7 approved candidates, none of them really represent different
groups of people. Economic problems, add to problems that already exist in society people.
Read 9 tweets
7 Jun
Jake Sullivan: the core of Biden trip to Europe is to rally world democracies to tackle the great challenges of our times
Sullivan: the focus of US EU summit is to align our approaches to trade and technology, so democracies write the rules for trade and technology in the 21st century
Sullivan: Biden not meeting with Putin in spite of our countries differences, but *because* of our countries’ differences; simply a lot we have to work through.
Read 4 tweets
3 Jun
as in the WaPo and CNN cases, Trump admin DOJ obtained the records in 2020, for reporting in 2017.
NYT: DOJ did not say which article was being investigated. But the lineup of reporters & timing suggests related to classified info reported in 4/22/2017 article about a doc obtained from Russia by hackers that influenced Comey decision to announce not charging HRC in email probe
“the April 2017 article mentioned a document obtained from Russia by hackers working for Dutch intelligence officials. The document, whose existence was classified, was said to have played a key role in Mr. Comey’s thinking about the Clinton case.”
Read 5 tweets
2 Jun
🧵 New from me: Iran talks break til next week; negotiators cite progress, need for political decisions diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-talks-b…
“The issue for Tehran is not about reaching agreement, but who can take credit for it,” which affects the timing of potentially reaching a deal, @Azodiac83 “Conservatives want to be able to say, ‘we brought you prosperity.’” diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-talks-b…
If one were to focus mostly on the Iranian statement tea leaves, one might expect a deal maybe later in June and some sort of implementation day in August. diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-talks-b…
Read 5 tweets
28 May
🧵Several new bits of info for me in this @shustry profile of Derkach. Among them,
Andriy Artemenko, who set up Giuliani’s Dec 2019 trip to Ukraine and apparently lives near DC, “is a longstanding business partner to Erik Prince.” time.com/6052302/andriy…
“Artemenko, a Kyiv-born citizen of Canada, had plenty of contacts to share. One of them was Derkach, who told me he has known Artemenko since at least since 2014.”
In months leading up to April FBI raid, “investigators questioned numerous witnesses about Giuliani’s work in Ukraine. Two of those witnesses told me the investigators were especially interested in his ties to Derkach. ‘They wanted everything – every meeting, every text,’
Read 10 tweets

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